01-07-2010, 06:16 PM
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->The Cubs frequently do this because Hendry doesn't understand the importance of roster spots.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I could spend quite a bit of time on this, but suffice to say that ripping a GM because he didn't put specific troubled players on the 40 man roster on the off off off chance that another team would pick them AND keep them on the roster for the year AND the prospect would then add up to anything, seems silly to me.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->They never really gave the guy a chance to succeed, but certainly they knew that a guy like Gathright wasn't going to be much more valuable in the short run.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
no, they didn't. They knew Pie was not doing well, and looked uncomfortable. they knew they couldn't send him down to the minors without losing him for nothing. they also didn't trade him for Gathright. They traded a guy they were NOT going to use, taking a gamble that Heilman could help them. Heilman didn't. Pie's value was lowered completely by the fact he was out of options. Which brings me to...
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Give me a break. He was a top prospect in the organization for years and there were plenty of reports of teams with interest. Hendry had his chances to trade him earlier but he held on, then the organization jerked him around, then Hendry traded him at about his lowest possible value. You don't think he could have been traded for a better return earlier in his career?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This is silly. Yes, of course he could have been traded when his value was higher. But when his value was higher, WHY would you want to trade him?? If you are going to blame Hendry for not know the EXACT moment a player goes from prospect to suspect, and for not seizing that moment and trading him, then you are essentially indicting every GM of virtually every team on the planet. It's beyond unfair.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->The overall budget has little to do with Hendry's problems in contract negotiations. Just because the organization tells you to spend what you need to in order to win doesn't mean you go out and give guys like Bradley, Soriano, and Zambrano the contracts they got.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
OF COURSE IT DOES. If the organization tells you "we don't care WHAT it costs, go out there and get us a winner", the translation is "overpay if you have to, but get us some stars". That is all fine and dandy until the day they come back to you and say "Umm, just kidding. We really DO care what it costs". Hendry overpaid for Soriano because he needed to. Because, for once, the Cubs weren't taking the high road, and being careful. They were saying screw it.
Let me ask you. Do you think the Cardinals think Holliday will be worth anything near what he is being paid in the final year of his contract? Or do you think they realize they totally overpaid for him, but are doing because they want to win now? Does this, by definition, make Mozeliak an idiot?
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Zambrano was paid based on a projection for improvement. He hasn't improved. At the time there was no way he merited the contract he received. There are plenty of better pitchers out there on better contracts.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Do you understand how free agents work? No one gets what they "merit". They get what the market dictates. The market dictates that the Cubs should have paid MORE for Zambrano than they did. And by the way, even though he was hurt last year, according to Fangraphs, Zambrano was within one million of his contract, value wise.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->I DID bring up WAR when referencing Fukudome. His WAR is similar to Byrd's, yet he's paid twice as much. He's overpaid by WAR standards, about $4.75MM per win. Would you want Byrd on the same contract?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, this is what you did. Because Zambrano earned less than his WAR would indicate he was worth, you make the comparison of value to contract. But since Fukudome has actually earned what his WAR indicated he was worth, you change the comparison. Instead, you compare him to another guy, a guy being paid less, so NOW the comparison is between the contracts of 2 guys with equal WAR, but unequal contracts. Then, since Wood far surpassed his contract as far as WAR is concerned, you drop WAR completely, and now start comparing Wood's contract to "market value". So, for 3 different players, you use 3 different metrics, since any one metric would hurt your case. That's unfair.
I could spend quite a bit of time on this, but suffice to say that ripping a GM because he didn't put specific troubled players on the 40 man roster on the off off off chance that another team would pick them AND keep them on the roster for the year AND the prospect would then add up to anything, seems silly to me.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->They never really gave the guy a chance to succeed, but certainly they knew that a guy like Gathright wasn't going to be much more valuable in the short run.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
no, they didn't. They knew Pie was not doing well, and looked uncomfortable. they knew they couldn't send him down to the minors without losing him for nothing. they also didn't trade him for Gathright. They traded a guy they were NOT going to use, taking a gamble that Heilman could help them. Heilman didn't. Pie's value was lowered completely by the fact he was out of options. Which brings me to...
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Give me a break. He was a top prospect in the organization for years and there were plenty of reports of teams with interest. Hendry had his chances to trade him earlier but he held on, then the organization jerked him around, then Hendry traded him at about his lowest possible value. You don't think he could have been traded for a better return earlier in his career?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This is silly. Yes, of course he could have been traded when his value was higher. But when his value was higher, WHY would you want to trade him?? If you are going to blame Hendry for not know the EXACT moment a player goes from prospect to suspect, and for not seizing that moment and trading him, then you are essentially indicting every GM of virtually every team on the planet. It's beyond unfair.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->The overall budget has little to do with Hendry's problems in contract negotiations. Just because the organization tells you to spend what you need to in order to win doesn't mean you go out and give guys like Bradley, Soriano, and Zambrano the contracts they got.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
OF COURSE IT DOES. If the organization tells you "we don't care WHAT it costs, go out there and get us a winner", the translation is "overpay if you have to, but get us some stars". That is all fine and dandy until the day they come back to you and say "Umm, just kidding. We really DO care what it costs". Hendry overpaid for Soriano because he needed to. Because, for once, the Cubs weren't taking the high road, and being careful. They were saying screw it.
Let me ask you. Do you think the Cardinals think Holliday will be worth anything near what he is being paid in the final year of his contract? Or do you think they realize they totally overpaid for him, but are doing because they want to win now? Does this, by definition, make Mozeliak an idiot?
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Zambrano was paid based on a projection for improvement. He hasn't improved. At the time there was no way he merited the contract he received. There are plenty of better pitchers out there on better contracts.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Do you understand how free agents work? No one gets what they "merit". They get what the market dictates. The market dictates that the Cubs should have paid MORE for Zambrano than they did. And by the way, even though he was hurt last year, according to Fangraphs, Zambrano was within one million of his contract, value wise.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->I DID bring up WAR when referencing Fukudome. His WAR is similar to Byrd's, yet he's paid twice as much. He's overpaid by WAR standards, about $4.75MM per win. Would you want Byrd on the same contract?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, this is what you did. Because Zambrano earned less than his WAR would indicate he was worth, you make the comparison of value to contract. But since Fukudome has actually earned what his WAR indicated he was worth, you change the comparison. Instead, you compare him to another guy, a guy being paid less, so NOW the comparison is between the contracts of 2 guys with equal WAR, but unequal contracts. Then, since Wood far surpassed his contract as far as WAR is concerned, you drop WAR completely, and now start comparing Wood's contract to "market value". So, for 3 different players, you use 3 different metrics, since any one metric would hurt your case. That's unfair.
I wish that I believed in Fate. I wish I didn't sleep so late. I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders.