01-05-2010, 09:01 PM
Keith Law's take:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Matt Holliday's deal is certainly a good one for the player; he gets a premium salary, averaging $17 million a year, covering his age 30-36 seasons, with a full no-trade clause, and gets to stay in the league where he's performed well and in a city where he's going to see a few more playoff appearances, with an excellent chance at another ring.
The short term offers great hope for the Cardinals, but what will they think of this deal in five years?
You could do a lot worse.
<b>But given the lack of another clear bidder for Holliday's services -- you'll have to forgive me if I put the Mystery Team in the same category as the Tooth Fairy and the homunculus -- it's even more impressive for Holliday and his agent, Scott Boras, to get this kind of annual salary.</b>
That's because the Cardinals assume pretty significant risk with this contract in exchange for two short-term rewards.
The first reward is that they are the very strong favorites to win the NL Central again in 2010, even with the downgrade from Joel Pineiro to Brad Penny in their rotation, because they'll get a full season of Holliday and improvement from Colby Rasmus, and <b>because no other team in that division is very good.</b> And since their core of Holliday, Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and Adam Wainwright are all under control (including option years) through 2011, they look good now for contention in that season as well, with maybe Cincinnati the most likely team to challenge them by that point.
The second reward, theoretically, is that they can at least argue to Pujols -- whose contract is up after the 2011 option -- that they have committed to build a contender around him long-term. Ultimately they'll have to pay him a market salary or something close to it, but to the extent that winning matters to him, they are better positioned to argue that he has a chance to win if he sticks around.
But yes, there's a downside. The problem for St. Louis is the length of the deal. It carries Holliday, an awkward defender in left field (who does, however, rate well in most defensive metrics), into his mid-30s, by which point he'll likely lose his defensive value and some of his offensive value as well. But, assuming they sign Pujols (and I believe they will), it also sets the team up to have $65 million or more committed to those four core players in 2012, after which they'd have to pony up again to retain Wainwright or Carpenter. Remember: this for a franchise that has never started a season with a payroll above $100 million. Even with inflation, they look to far surpass that in the near future.
<b>This means that St. Louis could be stuck constantly looking to find players to fill out their roster who perform well for below-market salaries. Most teams do this via the farm system, but the Cardinals have used their prospects as trade fodder and right now have one of the thinnest systems in the game.</b>
Rasmus projects as a star in center and won't reach a seven-figure salary till 2012, but between him and 2009 first-rounder Shelby Miller there's little star power in the system, so by the midpoint of Holliday's deal, they're going to be left relying on prospects developing unexpectedly well (like Brendan Ryan did with the glove) or on their ability to find value players like Ryan Ludwick who can produce for the minimum or arbitration-controlled salaries.
Of course, a pennant or two in the early part of the deal would make the contract seem well worth it to Cardinal fans. At least in the short term.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Matt Holliday's deal is certainly a good one for the player; he gets a premium salary, averaging $17 million a year, covering his age 30-36 seasons, with a full no-trade clause, and gets to stay in the league where he's performed well and in a city where he's going to see a few more playoff appearances, with an excellent chance at another ring.
The short term offers great hope for the Cardinals, but what will they think of this deal in five years?
You could do a lot worse.
<b>But given the lack of another clear bidder for Holliday's services -- you'll have to forgive me if I put the Mystery Team in the same category as the Tooth Fairy and the homunculus -- it's even more impressive for Holliday and his agent, Scott Boras, to get this kind of annual salary.</b>
That's because the Cardinals assume pretty significant risk with this contract in exchange for two short-term rewards.
The first reward is that they are the very strong favorites to win the NL Central again in 2010, even with the downgrade from Joel Pineiro to Brad Penny in their rotation, because they'll get a full season of Holliday and improvement from Colby Rasmus, and <b>because no other team in that division is very good.</b> And since their core of Holliday, Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and Adam Wainwright are all under control (including option years) through 2011, they look good now for contention in that season as well, with maybe Cincinnati the most likely team to challenge them by that point.
The second reward, theoretically, is that they can at least argue to Pujols -- whose contract is up after the 2011 option -- that they have committed to build a contender around him long-term. Ultimately they'll have to pay him a market salary or something close to it, but to the extent that winning matters to him, they are better positioned to argue that he has a chance to win if he sticks around.
But yes, there's a downside. The problem for St. Louis is the length of the deal. It carries Holliday, an awkward defender in left field (who does, however, rate well in most defensive metrics), into his mid-30s, by which point he'll likely lose his defensive value and some of his offensive value as well. But, assuming they sign Pujols (and I believe they will), it also sets the team up to have $65 million or more committed to those four core players in 2012, after which they'd have to pony up again to retain Wainwright or Carpenter. Remember: this for a franchise that has never started a season with a payroll above $100 million. Even with inflation, they look to far surpass that in the near future.
<b>This means that St. Louis could be stuck constantly looking to find players to fill out their roster who perform well for below-market salaries. Most teams do this via the farm system, but the Cardinals have used their prospects as trade fodder and right now have one of the thinnest systems in the game.</b>
Rasmus projects as a star in center and won't reach a seven-figure salary till 2012, but between him and 2009 first-rounder Shelby Miller there's little star power in the system, so by the midpoint of Holliday's deal, they're going to be left relying on prospects developing unexpectedly well (like Brendan Ryan did with the glove) or on their ability to find value players like Ryan Ludwick who can produce for the minimum or arbitration-controlled salaries.
Of course, a pennant or two in the early part of the deal would make the contract seem well worth it to Cardinal fans. At least in the short term.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->