08-07-2009, 12:22 PM
<!--quoteo(post=56265:date=Aug 7 2009, 11:18 AM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Aug 7 2009, 11:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56255:date=Aug 7 2009, 10:45 AM:name=cubbieblue)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cubbieblue @ Aug 7 2009, 10:45 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56228:date=Aug 7 2009, 06:59 AM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Aug 7 2009, 06:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56208:date=Aug 6 2009, 10:50 PM:name=cubbieblue)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cubbieblue @ Aug 6 2009, 10:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56201:date=Aug 6 2009, 09:40 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Aug 6 2009, 09:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Yikes, your "friend" is spending way too much time making blog posts that are poorly written, factually faulty, and completely convoluted.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yes, it is my friend's, not mine. And yes, I have helped him with it. I'm not denying that. I'm actually editing some of it as we speak. Do you have proof the facts are false? If so please let me know. I won't support something that is false. Hopefully it is a typo, not someone lying about facts to support a point (although I'm not sure what the exact point is).
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It's factually faulty because everything it's trying to "prove" is done so by using statistical metrics that are convoluted, then comparing them with other stats that are convoluted, and finally assigning a $$$ (for which there is basically no explanation) value to the players worth. It's also weighted with a fielding metric, every fielding metric is grossly faulty, even further negating anything written in the blog.
Honestly, do you think Randy Wells has been worth 2000% of what his entire season value is, after only 65% of the season has been played, and he's only been in the rotation for 3 months? He's had a nice season, but he's not giving the team value that's in the 10's of millions, that's just retarded (like the entire blog post).
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Ok, to be honest and maybe clear things up, yes, this is a blog that I do run with 3 of my friends from college. This was written by another of the authors. He kind of thought the end info was cool, and so did I, and since no one reads our blog I kind of wanted to discuss it with other Cubs fans. I clearly took the wrong approach though. I should have never mentioned anything about the blog and just presented that specific info. That way it wasn't about how poorly written the blog was but about the stats themselves and their flaws or whatever. I apologize and will no longer link to or mention our blog in the future.
Ok, now to your points about the stats. If you want to know the explanation for the $$$ and players value go to this link at Fan Graphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
And UZR is a pretty good fielding metric. It isn't up to par with the greatest hitting metric (wOBA), but it is coming a long way and is by no means "grossy faulty."
And keep in mind this money is based on what they could make in free agency based on this season in a vacuum. I do believe it is a little high because it is based on research compiled from several seasons and because of the economy free agent price tags are going down and aren't what they were when say Ted Lilly got his $10 million.
But based purely on this season's numbers, at this point don't you think Wells could approach $10 million a year if he could test free agency this year? In real life he probably wouldn't because lots of people think this is a fluke and he won't be this good. But you can't account for a fluke when calculating things like this with a player who only has 1 year of MLB experience.
And again, sorry for even bringing up the actual blog itself. I will concede all the points that you make about what is wrong with the blog. From this point on can we stick to discussing the actual data? If it helps here is the page with all the stats on it. All he added in was the players salary and percent earned.
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=C...009&month=0
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If there was any actual data worth discussing in there, I'd be all over it. There's not though, so . . .
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Ok, then I will be getting out of this topic and trying to forget I ever posted in it. Too bad everyone else can't do the same [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif[/img]
Yes, it is my friend's, not mine. And yes, I have helped him with it. I'm not denying that. I'm actually editing some of it as we speak. Do you have proof the facts are false? If so please let me know. I won't support something that is false. Hopefully it is a typo, not someone lying about facts to support a point (although I'm not sure what the exact point is).
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It's factually faulty because everything it's trying to "prove" is done so by using statistical metrics that are convoluted, then comparing them with other stats that are convoluted, and finally assigning a $$$ (for which there is basically no explanation) value to the players worth. It's also weighted with a fielding metric, every fielding metric is grossly faulty, even further negating anything written in the blog.
Honestly, do you think Randy Wells has been worth 2000% of what his entire season value is, after only 65% of the season has been played, and he's only been in the rotation for 3 months? He's had a nice season, but he's not giving the team value that's in the 10's of millions, that's just retarded (like the entire blog post).
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ok, to be honest and maybe clear things up, yes, this is a blog that I do run with 3 of my friends from college. This was written by another of the authors. He kind of thought the end info was cool, and so did I, and since no one reads our blog I kind of wanted to discuss it with other Cubs fans. I clearly took the wrong approach though. I should have never mentioned anything about the blog and just presented that specific info. That way it wasn't about how poorly written the blog was but about the stats themselves and their flaws or whatever. I apologize and will no longer link to or mention our blog in the future.
Ok, now to your points about the stats. If you want to know the explanation for the $$$ and players value go to this link at Fan Graphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
And UZR is a pretty good fielding metric. It isn't up to par with the greatest hitting metric (wOBA), but it is coming a long way and is by no means "grossy faulty."
And keep in mind this money is based on what they could make in free agency based on this season in a vacuum. I do believe it is a little high because it is based on research compiled from several seasons and because of the economy free agent price tags are going down and aren't what they were when say Ted Lilly got his $10 million.
But based purely on this season's numbers, at this point don't you think Wells could approach $10 million a year if he could test free agency this year? In real life he probably wouldn't because lots of people think this is a fluke and he won't be this good. But you can't account for a fluke when calculating things like this with a player who only has 1 year of MLB experience.
And again, sorry for even bringing up the actual blog itself. I will concede all the points that you make about what is wrong with the blog. From this point on can we stick to discussing the actual data? If it helps here is the page with all the stats on it. All he added in was the players salary and percent earned.
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=C...009&month=0
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If there was any actual data worth discussing in there, I'd be all over it. There's not though, so . . .
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Ok, then I will be getting out of this topic and trying to forget I ever posted in it. Too bad everyone else can't do the same [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif[/img]