06-14-2009, 11:37 PM
<!--quoteo(post=44071:date=Jun 14 2009, 01:30 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Jun 14 2009, 01:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=44070:date=Jun 14 2009, 01:09 AM:name=cherp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cherp @ Jun 14 2009, 01:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=43965:date=Jun 12 2009, 10:46 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 12 2009, 10:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=33455:date=Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM:name=cherp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cherp @ Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=33434:date=Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I bet Kevin Towers is might proud of that hard line he took with the Peavy negotiations. "I want all of your good prospects, AND I want you to take this 81 million dollar contract off of my hands during the middle of a recession".
Nice job Kev.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
BT - His team is 10-8 with a 43mm payroll and under 30mm in obligations for 2010. Why should he not be proud?
Unless he is forced by ownership to dump Peavy later, and he is forced (by the market and by JPs NTC) to take less than they feel he is worth, he should be proud that he held his ground and didn't take it in the shorts and give up the (expected) best player on his team.
Now hindsight is 20/20 and JP has a near 6.00 ERA, but nobody was projecting that when they were talking about acquiring him, and I doubt anyone expects that to continue over the course of his 30+ starts.
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Now Peavy is out until after the trade deadline? Man, I really have to agree with BT here on this one.
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No doubt...but predicting a torn ankle ligament wasn't predictable. The Pads had a deal in place to move him to get the Sox two best pitching prospects. Had Peavy not vetoed it, they'd have gotten a huge loot for him.
But yes - BT was right.
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Agreed that the ankle could not have been predicted, but 2 things.
1- Even if the ankle injury specifically could not have been predicted, when you decide to ask for more and hold onto your trading chip, you are ALWAYS taking the chance that an injury could diminish or completely destroy your assets value. Much the same reasoning is used when underage class men declare for the draft, rather than risk an injury. Put another way, it would have been difficult for Peavy to increase his trade value, however there were multiple ways for him to decrease it.
2- Had Peavy approved the trade to the Sox it would have PROVED my point, not disproved it. The fact is, Vitters, Marshall and the other 4 players most mentioned in the initial deal would have been a much bigger payoff than Poreda, Richards and the other 2 throw ins. I've yet to see any preseason publication that liked Poreda more than Vitters, nor any that liked Richards more than Marshall. The other 4 would have more value than the throw ins the Sox were contemplating.
The fact that that deal was agreed to by Towers was the proof that Towers fucked himself by trying to hold up Hendry during the GM meetings, which was my initial point.
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Yup - you are right. Peavy, even before the injury, was horribly mediocre. 6-6 with a 3.97 ERA in Petco. Kudos if you were predicting THAT. I was assuming he'd continue to be a sub 3.00 ERA guy. If he was, I don't see his price having fallen so much.
But, the bottom line is you were spot on right. Towers will get nothing for Peavy now, if he moves him. More likely, he won't even be able to find someone to eat that deal and guarantee Peavy the 22mm that he wants in the option year. That said, giving him up for the package the Cubs were offering for him may have been a bad choice also. I'm unsure there was a good choice for the Pads in their situation
Nice job Kev.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
BT - His team is 10-8 with a 43mm payroll and under 30mm in obligations for 2010. Why should he not be proud?
Unless he is forced by ownership to dump Peavy later, and he is forced (by the market and by JPs NTC) to take less than they feel he is worth, he should be proud that he held his ground and didn't take it in the shorts and give up the (expected) best player on his team.
Now hindsight is 20/20 and JP has a near 6.00 ERA, but nobody was projecting that when they were talking about acquiring him, and I doubt anyone expects that to continue over the course of his 30+ starts.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Now Peavy is out until after the trade deadline? Man, I really have to agree with BT here on this one.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No doubt...but predicting a torn ankle ligament wasn't predictable. The Pads had a deal in place to move him to get the Sox two best pitching prospects. Had Peavy not vetoed it, they'd have gotten a huge loot for him.
But yes - BT was right.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Agreed that the ankle could not have been predicted, but 2 things.
1- Even if the ankle injury specifically could not have been predicted, when you decide to ask for more and hold onto your trading chip, you are ALWAYS taking the chance that an injury could diminish or completely destroy your assets value. Much the same reasoning is used when underage class men declare for the draft, rather than risk an injury. Put another way, it would have been difficult for Peavy to increase his trade value, however there were multiple ways for him to decrease it.
2- Had Peavy approved the trade to the Sox it would have PROVED my point, not disproved it. The fact is, Vitters, Marshall and the other 4 players most mentioned in the initial deal would have been a much bigger payoff than Poreda, Richards and the other 2 throw ins. I've yet to see any preseason publication that liked Poreda more than Vitters, nor any that liked Richards more than Marshall. The other 4 would have more value than the throw ins the Sox were contemplating.
The fact that that deal was agreed to by Towers was the proof that Towers fucked himself by trying to hold up Hendry during the GM meetings, which was my initial point.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yup - you are right. Peavy, even before the injury, was horribly mediocre. 6-6 with a 3.97 ERA in Petco. Kudos if you were predicting THAT. I was assuming he'd continue to be a sub 3.00 ERA guy. If he was, I don't see his price having fallen so much.
But, the bottom line is you were spot on right. Towers will get nothing for Peavy now, if he moves him. More likely, he won't even be able to find someone to eat that deal and guarantee Peavy the 22mm that he wants in the option year. That said, giving him up for the package the Cubs were offering for him may have been a bad choice also. I'm unsure there was a good choice for the Pads in their situation