02-13-2009, 04:30 PM
<!--quoteo(post=17824:date=Feb 13 2009, 01:52 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Feb 13 2009, 01:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Tell that to my 401(k). I've lost $25,000 in less than three months. Also, I walked through 300 North Michigan last weekend -- the shopping center across the street from Water Tower Place. It's sort of a "high-end" mall. 8 floors of shopping. Every single storefront is shut down except for Saks-Fifth and maybe one or two other places. I've never seen anything like it.
How many people do you know who have been laid off? My company has gone through several rounds of layoffs and we could be looking at more. Two people from my group were just canned -- including my supervisor.
Is your problem with the Great Depression quote that we aren't yet eating our leather belts? Are you not willing to admit that we're in a crisis? What is it going to take? Just how bad does it need to get? It seems like your political persuasion is clouding your judgment a little.
Granted, I wasn't around for the Great Depression, but this is *far* worse than anything I've lived through.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Butch, as with all things on items such as this you have to put this into historical perspective. The question I'm asking is not relative to my personal experience because our leadership isn't comparing this to their personal exprience they are comparing it to history itself. The statements used were "worse financial crisis since the Great Depression". If we use the most commonly used, and widely regarded economic indicators of GDP, Stock Market losses, inflation/deflation ratios, Jobless Claims we find that this is by the numbers, a pretty hard recession, but certainly no where near the worst we've seen in a couple of decades, let alone the Great Depression. So my conclusion is that as of today, and since this started back when Bear Stearns started the dominos falling, we are getting the wool pulled over our eyes.
Now, I will admit that I have no idea how deep this is going to get. I don't have a crystal ball that can magically tell me that everything is going to get all better, or going to get much worse. All I have is the data in front of me, common sense, my ability to reason, and what I'm being told by my peers and my leaders. From that, I can draw a conclusion that..things aren't quite as bad as people are making this out to be. Not yet at least, and CERTAINLY no where NEAR "as bad as we've seen since the Great Depression".
My grandfather who is still alive, at 92 years of age lived through the Great depression. I've spoken with him on this subject. He laughs whenever he hears people reference what we're going through, not because he is unsympathetic to it, but he smartly and calmly replies with items of wisdom such as this..."the day that you have to go away for 6 months at a time so that you can send your wife and children home every nickle you make so that they can all afford to live in a 1 room apartment, and you aren't selling off your furniture in order to feed your children, is the day that you'll know what we went through during that time". We have 7.6% unemployment and I'll grant you that it's increasing dramatically, but if you go back to the 80's and the 70's, both of which had vastly larger %'s of people out of work than TODAY, you begin to ask yourself 'is what I'm being told accurate?
To directly answer your questions however, my firm has laid off 15% of it's workforce. I currently have 1 friend who worked for Bear Stearns who lost his job, and no one else in my family nor of my friends have lost their jobs. This is indicative of most recessions. Advances and contractions in the economy is part of capitalism.
<b>My ultimate problem with this is that the data available to us does not reflect that in which we are being told by our leaders.</b> We are being told that "this <b>is</b> the greatest crisis that we've experienced since the great depression" when the numbers simply do not add up to that.
Now, perhaps people are saying well, it could get that bad, ok that's a fine arguement, but shouldn't the job of our president and his staff be to tell us the truth, and not spin the data so that a vast amount of preasure can be added to help pass a bill that less than 40% of American's polled agree with, and only 3 Republican party members can sign off on, ALL of which cite FEAR OF THE UNKOWN as the sole reason for their voting for the bill?
Something smells fishy to me. Then again, I'm the crazy cook that is buying up as much stock as I can right now too. If you listen to CNBC and Bloomberg you hear over and over again "stocks crashing!!@! personal wealth evaporating!!@!@ Market is plumetting 30%!!!"
What I'm seeing is stocks are on sale! 30% discounts on some of Americas greatest companies!!!! Limited time only!!!
Lastly, I do agree and side whole heartedly with the housing situation in the country. From Greenspan, to Clinton and Bush, an SEC that was completely asleep at the wheel, fraudulent lending institutions (Banks) that helped create CDO's, and Insurance companies that helped create a 600 trillion dollar derivatives debacle....overall....it's bad ... but I just don't buy...that it's nearly as bad as it's being spun....at least not right now and we're being told that it is that bad, right now. So of course I'm willing to admit that we have a crisis on our hands, but I also don't think that any rationale human being who actually dives into these numbers can believe in all fairness what we are being told, vs what is actually going on.
Then again, I'm also putting my money where my mouth is. So, we'll see soon enough.
How many people do you know who have been laid off? My company has gone through several rounds of layoffs and we could be looking at more. Two people from my group were just canned -- including my supervisor.
Is your problem with the Great Depression quote that we aren't yet eating our leather belts? Are you not willing to admit that we're in a crisis? What is it going to take? Just how bad does it need to get? It seems like your political persuasion is clouding your judgment a little.
Granted, I wasn't around for the Great Depression, but this is *far* worse than anything I've lived through.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Butch, as with all things on items such as this you have to put this into historical perspective. The question I'm asking is not relative to my personal experience because our leadership isn't comparing this to their personal exprience they are comparing it to history itself. The statements used were "worse financial crisis since the Great Depression". If we use the most commonly used, and widely regarded economic indicators of GDP, Stock Market losses, inflation/deflation ratios, Jobless Claims we find that this is by the numbers, a pretty hard recession, but certainly no where near the worst we've seen in a couple of decades, let alone the Great Depression. So my conclusion is that as of today, and since this started back when Bear Stearns started the dominos falling, we are getting the wool pulled over our eyes.
Now, I will admit that I have no idea how deep this is going to get. I don't have a crystal ball that can magically tell me that everything is going to get all better, or going to get much worse. All I have is the data in front of me, common sense, my ability to reason, and what I'm being told by my peers and my leaders. From that, I can draw a conclusion that..things aren't quite as bad as people are making this out to be. Not yet at least, and CERTAINLY no where NEAR "as bad as we've seen since the Great Depression".
My grandfather who is still alive, at 92 years of age lived through the Great depression. I've spoken with him on this subject. He laughs whenever he hears people reference what we're going through, not because he is unsympathetic to it, but he smartly and calmly replies with items of wisdom such as this..."the day that you have to go away for 6 months at a time so that you can send your wife and children home every nickle you make so that they can all afford to live in a 1 room apartment, and you aren't selling off your furniture in order to feed your children, is the day that you'll know what we went through during that time". We have 7.6% unemployment and I'll grant you that it's increasing dramatically, but if you go back to the 80's and the 70's, both of which had vastly larger %'s of people out of work than TODAY, you begin to ask yourself 'is what I'm being told accurate?
To directly answer your questions however, my firm has laid off 15% of it's workforce. I currently have 1 friend who worked for Bear Stearns who lost his job, and no one else in my family nor of my friends have lost their jobs. This is indicative of most recessions. Advances and contractions in the economy is part of capitalism.
<b>My ultimate problem with this is that the data available to us does not reflect that in which we are being told by our leaders.</b> We are being told that "this <b>is</b> the greatest crisis that we've experienced since the great depression" when the numbers simply do not add up to that.
Now, perhaps people are saying well, it could get that bad, ok that's a fine arguement, but shouldn't the job of our president and his staff be to tell us the truth, and not spin the data so that a vast amount of preasure can be added to help pass a bill that less than 40% of American's polled agree with, and only 3 Republican party members can sign off on, ALL of which cite FEAR OF THE UNKOWN as the sole reason for their voting for the bill?
Something smells fishy to me. Then again, I'm the crazy cook that is buying up as much stock as I can right now too. If you listen to CNBC and Bloomberg you hear over and over again "stocks crashing!!@! personal wealth evaporating!!@!@ Market is plumetting 30%!!!"
What I'm seeing is stocks are on sale! 30% discounts on some of Americas greatest companies!!!! Limited time only!!!
Lastly, I do agree and side whole heartedly with the housing situation in the country. From Greenspan, to Clinton and Bush, an SEC that was completely asleep at the wheel, fraudulent lending institutions (Banks) that helped create CDO's, and Insurance companies that helped create a 600 trillion dollar derivatives debacle....overall....it's bad ... but I just don't buy...that it's nearly as bad as it's being spun....at least not right now and we're being told that it is that bad, right now. So of course I'm willing to admit that we have a crisis on our hands, but I also don't think that any rationale human being who actually dives into these numbers can believe in all fairness what we are being told, vs what is actually going on.
Then again, I'm also putting my money where my mouth is. So, we'll see soon enough.