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<!--quoteo(post=64414:date=Sep 25 2009, 05:34 PM:name=dk123)-->QUOTE (dk123 @ Sep 25 2009, 05:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=64397:date=Sep 25 2009, 02:50 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 25 2009, 02:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=64394:date=Sep 25 2009, 02:33 PM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Sep 25 2009, 02:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Rafael Palmeiro (did enjoy his time with the Cubs, via Sandberg's wife)<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He and the rest of the organization...
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![[Image: corncobdress.jpg]](http://images.bleedcubbieblue.com/images/admin/corncobdress.jpg)
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You would think he was making enough money to buy his wife a dress sans corn.
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He erroneously believed that dress would camouflage the correct route to the actual cornhole.
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<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->We chose him 13th overall, and the Cardinals took Colby Rasmus 14th (a similar player, only universally considered to be MUCH better).<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, they didn't. Travis Snider was picked 14th by the Blue Jays. Colby Rasmus makes it a better story, because he is pretty established, but he went in another draft altogether. Travis Snider is not. Travis Snider was a high school player, and by definition a bigger gamble than Colvin was. Rasmus was taken at the end of the first round in 2005. If you are going to get pissed about the assload of talent we passed on in taking Colvin, there is exactly zero guys who are clearly better than Colvin right now. There are a number of guys who might be better than him (Snider, Drabek), but none of the players taken in the first round (the supplemental round had Joba Chamberlain and Kyler Burke by the way) is a superstar right now.
Here is the full list. Any of these guys COULD end up better than Colvin, as Colvin isn't that great of a prospect, but we are now looking at this with 3 years of hindsight, and STILL not one of these guys (with the possible exception of Drabek) jumps out as a head banging miss. You really really need to get over your Colvin psychosis.
13. Tyler Colvin, LF, Chicago Cubs (Clemson)
14. Travis Snider, RF, Toronto Blue Jays (Everett, Wash.)
15. Christopher Marrero, OF, Washington Nationals (Opa Locka, Fla.)
16. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers (South Boston, Va.)
17. Matt Antonelli, 3B, San Diego Padres (Wake Forest)
18. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies (The Woodlands, Texas)
19. Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Florida Marlins (Missouri State)
20. Christopher Parmelee, RF, Minnesota Twins (Chino Hills, Calif.)
21. Ian Kennedy, RHP, New York Yankees (Southern Cal)
22. Colton Willems, RHP, Washington Nationals (Fort Pierce, Fla.)
23. Maxwell Sapp, C, Houston Astros (Orlando, Fla.)
24. John Johnson, OF, Atlanta Braves (Panama City, Fla.)
25. Hank Conger, C, Los Angeles Angels (Huntington Beach, Calif.)
26. Bryan Morris, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (Motlow State Community College)
27. Jason Place, CF, Boston Red Sox (Piedmont, S.C.)
28. Daniel Bard, RHP, Boston Red Sox (North Carolina)
29. Kyle McCulloch, RHP, Chicago White Sox (Texas)
30. Adam Ottavino, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (Northeastern):
I wish that I believed in Fate. I wish I didn't sleep so late. I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders.
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BT is right, and I stand corrected.
That said, there are few people who wouldn't take Daniel Bard, Travis Snider, Hank Conger (yep, another future star catcher we passed up, along with Matt Weiters), and Kyle Drabek over Colvin, in a hot second. In fact, the Phillies wouldn't even trade Drabek for Roy freaking Halladay. Ian Kennedy and Matt Antonelli will likely outperform Colvin also.
And you can't say "Well, hindsight is 20/20," because <b>at the time</b> every was scratching their heads and pissed off about the Colvin pick.
But, hey, the draft is somewhat of a gamble, I admit that.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=64451:date=Sep 26 2009, 12:03 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Sep 26 2009, 12:03 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->BT is right, and I stand corrected.
That said, there are few people who wouldn't take Daniel Bard, Travis Snider, Hank Conger (yep, another future star catcher we passed up, along with Matt Weiters), and Kyle Drabek over Colvin, in a hot second. In fact, the Phillies wouldn't even trade Drabek for Roy freaking Halladay. Ian Kennedy and Matt Antonelli will likely outperform Colvin also.
And you can't say "Well, hindsight is 20/20," because <b>at the time</b> every was scratching their heads and pissed off about the Colvin pick.
But, hey, the draft is somewhat of a gamble, I admit that.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yes, I would probably take any of those guys over Colvin, but again, saying I would take 3 of the guys taken after Colvin over him, and saying his pick was a complete and obvious disaster, are 2 separate things entirely.
Also, I'm not sure what you've been watching, but I've had Antonelli on my minor league squad for the last 2 years, and he has been nothing short of a complete disaster. He hasn't come even close to sniffing Colvin's pedestrian numbers. And while Conger might be good, I'm not sure where you are getting "future star" from. Baseball prospectus had him as a 3 star (out of 5) prospect before the year started, and while he was good this year, he wasn't out of this world. He will probably be better than Colvin, but again, I don't think we are looking at Johnny Bench.
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I really wanted to Cubs to take Antonelli that year, but you're right in that he has turned into shit.
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We traded Joe Carter for Sutcliffe, so I'd say that was a pretty good use of a pick.
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Getting back to the original point, let me say that the Cubs have nothing to be proud of when it comes to first rounders. Their record is pretty bad. However, I would second Sipes point to an extent, in that it is slanted, in a way. Specifically, it's slanted in everything it DOESN'T tell you. And that is (as was discussed earlier) that first round draft picks in baseball, unlike football and basketball, are far less likely to make an impact. KB, you said:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->But Sipes is reaching by saying the article is "slanted." The big-league draft began before most people on this site were born, before the Beatles released Sgt. Pepper, when the hot TV show was "Andy Griffith." In all that time to not have ONE true star come out of the first round is almost unfathomable.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The problem is, it's NOT unfathomable. I looked up exactly one example, the first team that came into my head, when I saw this. I don't think any of us would argue that the Cardinals are not a well run organization, with far more success than the Cubs. However, I looked up their draft history. Again, you could argue the fringes of the argument, but essentially, their first rounders are no better than the Cubs. I might be missing someone, but I count one really great guy, and 4 or 5 good guys. They drafted Ted Simmons, but then you are into guys like Garry Templeton, Joe Magrane, JD Drew, etc. Again, probably better than the Cubs, but comparable. going through other random teams bears out some with the same (rough) record as the Cubs.
The Orioles basically have Bobby Grich. The Tigers, Kirk Gibson and Lance Parrish. The Royals have Kevin Appier. But not much after those guys. Even a great team like the Braves, known for their farm system and drafting, have Chipper Jones (first pick in the draft), and then Dale Murphy and maybe Steve Avery.
In summary, the Cubs have been bad, but it's not nearly as bad as it seems, if you check out the context.
(PS, I fully admit I could have missed some guys, as my research for each team lasted about 12 seconds).
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Plus, it doesn't mention guys like Greg Maddux, who the Cubs drafted in the very early 2nd round.
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<!--quoteo(post=64501:date=Sep 26 2009, 09:24 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Sep 26 2009, 09:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Plus, it doesn't mention guys like Greg Maddux, who the Cubs drafted in the very early 2nd round.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Exactly. Which also brings up a couple of other points. First of all, if someone wants to argue that the Cubs have drafted poorly OVERALL, rather than limit it to just first rounders, I think they would have a better point. Secondly, it seems rather odd that the Cubs somehow don't get credit for drafting Carter and Palmeiro, simply because they traded them away.
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OTOH, look how the Mets did in a period of 9 years:
1985 Gregg Jefferies (pretty big star for awhile)
1982 Dwight Gooden (we took Dunston instead)
1980 Billy Beane (yeah, <i>that</i> Beane; actually sucked as a player)
1980 Darryl Strawberry (for 6-7 years, one of the 5 best players in MLB)
1979 Tim Leary (17-game winner)
1978 Hubie Brooks (All-Star, traded for Gary Carter-HOFer)
1977 Wally Backman (solid starter)
Obviously, they had a leg up on the competition during those years.
Or Butch's favorite team, who had a pretty nice 4-year stretch:
1990 Alex Fernandez
1989 Frank Thomas
1988 Robin Ventura
1987 Jack McDowell
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<!--quoteo(post=64504:date=Sep 26 2009, 09:34 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Sep 26 2009, 09:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->OTOH, look how the Mets did in a period of 9 years:
1985 Gregg Jefferies (pretty big star for awhile)
1982 Dwight Gooden (we took Dunston instead)
1980 Billy Beane (yeah, <i>that</i> Beane; actually sucked as a player)
1980 Darryl Strawberry (for 6-7 years, one of the 5 best players in MLB)
1979 Tim Leary (17-game winner)
1978 Hubie Brooks (All-Star, traded for Gary Carter-HOFer)
1977 Wally Backman (solid starter)
Obviously, they had a leg up on the competition during those years.
Or Butch's favorite team, who had a pretty nice 4-year stretch:
1990 Alex Fernandez
1989 Frank Thomas
1988 Robin Ventura
1987 Jack McDowell<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
which, again, shows how much of a crapshoot this is. The sox had maybe the best 4 year run of anyone in draft history. Now go take a look at every other first rounder they drafted. Harold Baines is the only guy to do anything for them. So a team that was awful drafting during it's entire history, hits the jackpot 4 years running. Then nothing (until maybe Beckham now).
I wish that I believed in Fate. I wish I didn't sleep so late. I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders.
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