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Cubs Drafting - kbwsb - 09-25-2009

To celebrate the call-up of future great Tyler Colvin, I searched for articles on our excellent drafting process. This was particularly eye-opening:

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->...One other key factor doomed the franchise -- an amazing streak that is mind-boggling. Baseball began its amateur draft in 1965. The Cubs, often bad, often drafted high. <b>Despite this, the Cubs have NEVER drafted a player in the first round who turned into a longtime star with the franchise. Not a single one.</b> In fact, of the 46 first-round picks made from 1965 through 2006, few even became quality major leaguers.

This is so astounding, so inexplicably astonishing, it's worth reviewing.

The seven "good" first-round choices:

1981: Joe Carter. Traded.

1982: Shawon Dunston. He did have a long (if mediocre) career.

1985: Rafael Palmeiro. Traded before he became a star.

1991: Doug Glanville. Traded for Mickey Morandini.

1995: Kerry Wood. Injured.

1997: Jon Garland. Traded for Matt Karchner.

2001: Mark Prior. Injured.

As for the rest, check out the complete list of first-round picks, from Rick James in 1965 through Tyler Colvin in 2006:

Rick James (not the funk master), Dean Burk*, Terry Hughes, Ralph Rickey*, Roger Metzger (five home runs in 1,219 career games … 1970s baseball, folks!), Gene Hiser, Jeff Wehmeier*, Brian Vernoy*, Jerry Tab, Scot Thompson (an outfielder who played 626 games and hit five home runs), Brian Rosinski*, Herman Segelke, Randy Martz, Bill Hayes, Jon Perlman, Don Schulze, Vance Lovelace, Joe Carter, Stan Boderick*, Tony Woods*, Shawon Dunston, Jackie Davidson* (could have had Roger Clemens), Drew Hall, Dave Masters*, Rafael Palmeiro (did enjoy his time with the Cubs, via Sandberg's wife), Derrick May, Mike Harkey, Ty Griffin*, Earl Cunningham* (prodigious power when he connected, which was rarely; hit .196 one year in Class A with 152 strikeouts and 19 walks), Lance Dickson, Doug Glanville, Derek Wallace, Jon Ratliff, Brooks Kieschnick, Jayson Peterson*, Wood, Todd Noel*, Jon Garland, Corey Patterson (had all the tools except strike-zone judgment), Ben Christensen*, Luis Montanez, Mark Prior, Bobby Brownlie*, Ryan Harvey*, Mark Pawelek*, Tyler Colvin.

* Never even appeared in the majors<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Cubs Drafting - Butcher - 09-25-2009

I agree with the general premise of the article -- we suck at drafting/developing talent. We have for a long time.

But I take issue with Wood and Prior. Yeah -- they both got injured multiple times. But that is a completely separate issue. If healthy, they both could have had HOF careers and they were both good picks.

Cubs Drafting - rok - 09-25-2009

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Rafael Palmeiro (did enjoy his time with the Cubs, via Sandberg's wife)<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He and the rest of the organization...

Cubs Drafting - dk123 - 09-25-2009

I would be interested to see what percentage of 1st round draft picks have achieved star status across the league as well as broken down team by team over the same time period.

Cubs Drafting - Butcher - 09-25-2009

<!--quoteo(post=64394:date=Sep 25 2009, 02:33 PM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Sep 25 2009, 02:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Rafael Palmeiro (did enjoy his time with the Cubs, via Sandberg's wife)<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He and the rest of the organization...
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[Image: corncobdress.jpg]

Cubs Drafting - Andy - 09-25-2009

<!--quoteo(post=64395:date=Sep 25 2009, 02:44 PM:name=dk123)-->QUOTE (dk123 @ Sep 25 2009, 02:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I would be interested to see what percentage of 1st round draft picks have achieved star status across the league as well as broken down team by team over the same time period.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I know for a fact, we've already done this.

Cubs Drafting - Lance - 09-25-2009

<!--quoteo(post=64399:date=Sep 25 2009, 04:02 PM:name=Andy)-->QUOTE (Andy @ Sep 25 2009, 04:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=64395:date=Sep 25 2009, 02:44 PM:name=dk123)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (dk123 @ Sep 25 2009, 02:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I would be interested to see what percentage of 1st round draft picks have achieved star status across the league as well as broken down team by team over the same time period.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I know for a fact, we've already done this.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

So, to save alot of time, what was the conclusion?

Cubs Drafting - Scarey - 09-25-2009

<!--quoteo(post=64402:date=Sep 25 2009, 03:20 PM:name=Lance)-->QUOTE (Lance @ Sep 25 2009, 03:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=64399:date=Sep 25 2009, 04:02 PM:name=Andy)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Andy @ Sep 25 2009, 04:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=64395:date=Sep 25 2009, 02:44 PM:name=dk123)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (dk123 @ Sep 25 2009, 02:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I would be interested to see what percentage of 1st round draft picks have achieved star status across the league as well as broken down team by team over the same time period.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I know for a fact, we've already done this.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

So, to save alot of time, what was the conclusion?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I can't remember for sure, but I think we analyzed just getting the 1st round picks to the majors. If I remember correctly, the Cubs were slightly below the middle of the road, but not among the very worst in the league.

Cubs Drafting - Fella - 09-25-2009

Around 70% of all 1st rounders eventually make the majors, for the Cubs its 30 of 46 or about 65%, so they are only a little below average in that capacity, they have also drafted some true stars like Joe Carter and Rafael Palmiero but obviously traded them too soon, they have also had obvious bad luck with super talented players like Wood and Prior.

Overall I don't think they have been quite as bad at drafting as some would like to believe, but its been below average for a long time.

Cubs Drafting - leonardsipes - 09-25-2009

It is a bullshit article. Big talk, without any backup. It seems to me, both Kerry Wood and Shawon Dunston would qualify as long term stars. I think overall, the first round is generating about 10-15% stars. So of the seven listed, throw out Prior and Glanville, that is better than 10%.

Cubs Drafting - Scarey - 09-25-2009

BTW, we need to wait a bit more before condemning our up and coming draft picks. Colvin did have a very promising year, but you're right in your sarcasm KB, that Colvin probably won't amount to much. He'll be a 4th outfielder, but that's not bad considering the production the Cubs have had out of their picks the last few years.

Going forward, we have some very good players that will be developing in our system. Historically, the Cubs have not developed their talent, true. But I'm still hopeful that Tim Wilken's guidance will result in some major league stars.

Besides drafting some very promising players this year , their international efforts are showing promise. As a reference, Hak-Ju Lee was signed for $750,000 bonus last year and has vaulted himself into a top 10 Cubs prospect. He could be a top 150 prospect in all of baseball. This year, the Cubs signed Venezuelan catcher Wilson Contreras to a $850,000 bonus, Korean center fielder Kyung-Min Na to a $750,000 bonus, and Korean outfielder Dong-Yub Kim to a $550,000. They also spent between $260,000 to $350,000 each on bonuses for two Taiwanese pitchers and a Taiwanese infielder.

It's not just about drafting anymore. The international free agent market is getting very intense and the Cubs so far are cornering the market in South Korea and Taiwan.

Cubs Drafting - kbwsb - 09-25-2009

I think you're correct, Scarey, in that the Cubs are finally getting creative about acquiring international players, and are finally using the massive financial advantage we've always had by plowing it back into the team, via foreign kids.
But Sipes is reaching by saying the article is "slanted." The big-league draft began before most people on this site were <i>born</i>, before the Beatles released Sgt. Pepper, when the hot TV show was "Andy Griffith." In all that time to not have ONE true star come out of the first round is almost unfathomable.
I agree that Wood and Prior are injury cases; so is every amateur pitcher on the planet. There is a saying that it is not a question of "if" a young pitcher will get injured, but a question of "when." That doesn't mean that I would never draft a young pitcher, only that, statistically, they don't pan out nearly as often as everyday players. (because of guess what?)

Saying Shawon Dunston was a star on par with other 1st rounders like Barry Bonds or Derek Jeter is laughable. Just sayin'.

And yeah, I have been pissed about Tyler Colvin from the instant we picked him. Why? Because there were about 5 draft board-type sites at the time, and all five projected him as about the 150th to 180th best player in the draft that year.
We chose him 13th overall, and the Cardinals took Colby Rasmus 14th (a similar player, only universally considered to be MUCH better).
Fuck that with a stick.

Cubs Drafting - veryzer - 09-25-2009

i remember when i was a kid at wrigley. after the game we waited by the players lot for autographs. long story short, my dad and i both boned cindy sandberg.

Cubs Drafting - Butcher - 09-25-2009

<!--quoteo(post=64410:date=Sep 25 2009, 05:22 PM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Sep 25 2009, 05:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->i remember when i was a kid at wrigley. after the game we waited by the players lot for autographs. long story short, my dad and i both boned cindy sandberg.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/spit.gif[/img]

Cubs Drafting - dk123 - 09-25-2009

<!--quoteo(post=64397:date=Sep 25 2009, 02:50 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 25 2009, 02:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=64394:date=Sep 25 2009, 02:33 PM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Sep 25 2009, 02:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Rafael Palmeiro (did enjoy his time with the Cubs, via Sandberg's wife)<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He and the rest of the organization...
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[Image: corncobdress.jpg]
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You would think he was making enough money to buy his wife a dress sans corn.