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***Butcher*** · 04-28-2009, 06:32 PM

QUOTE (Runnys @ Apr 28 2009, 05:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Butch....what about our rotation is showing cracks? What are they doing any differently than they have ever done? Lilly getting off to a bad start this year...that is a shocker!! Oh wait, he did the exact same thing last year. Zambrano has been somewhat erratic...color me shocked! Harden is pitching pretty damn good, again, a shocker. Dempster and Marshall have been serviceable.

However, I can totally see how you are able to make assumptions and potential doomsday projections based on 18 games of the season. Might as well just give the division to the Cards now because they are obviously the best team in the division for the year because they are in the lead.
I don't believe I've said anywhere in this thread that the Cards (or any team -- including the Cubs) are a lock to win the division.

I really do try not to over-evaluate what I'm seeing in April. I try and wait until Memorial Day before I really get a sense of the team. But, so far, I'm not liking it...and I've already seen enough to know that getting to October isn't going to be the cake walk that a lot of people seem to think it's going to be.

ruby23 · 04-28-2009, 07:09 PM

QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 04:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 28 2009, 04:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 03:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE The Cards, Reds, and Pirates are all better than last season.

No they're not.
</div>
Yeah, I'm not sure any of those teams are better than last year.
</div>
I'm pretty sure of it.
</div>
Well, you're wrong. List their opening day rosters from last year, then list their opening day rosters from this year, put them side by side, then tell me with a straight face that they are better. If you can do that, you'd make a hell of a poker player.

Every team in the NL Central got worse or stayed the about the same talent-wise(Cubs included), I find it impossible to think otherwise and in your heart, you know it too.

***Butcher*** · 04-28-2009, 08:48 PM

QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 06:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 04:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 28 2009, 04:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 03:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE The Cards, Reds, and Pirates are all better than last season.

No they're not.
</div>
Yeah, I'm not sure any of those teams are better than last year.
</div>
I'm pretty sure of it.
</div>
Well, you're wrong. List their opening day rosters from last year, then list their opening day rosters from this year, put them side by side, then tell me with a straight face that they are better. If you can do that, you'd make a hell of a poker player.

Every team in the NL Central got worse or stayed the about the same talent-wise(Cubs included), I find it impossible to think otherwise and in your heart, you know it too.
</div>
I'm not expecting them to be better because of any changes to their roster -- as I mentioned before. I expect them to be better because the core of their talent; Votto, Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto are all 25 years old or younger. I'm expecting them to be better than they were last year. I also think Harang is going to bounce back (unless his arm falls off). Encarnacion and Phillips are both developing talents, too. The Reds could take a huge step forward this season.

So yes -- I expect them to be better. And there isn't a trace of a smile on my face as I type this.

ruby23 · 04-28-2009, 08:55 PM

QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 07:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 06:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 04:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 28 2009, 04:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 03:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE The Cards, Reds, and Pirates are all better than last season.

No they're not.
</div>
Yeah, I'm not sure any of those teams are better than last year.
</div>
I'm pretty sure of it.
</div>
Well, you're wrong. List their opening day rosters from last year, then list their opening day rosters from this year, put them side by side, then tell me with a straight face that they are better. If you can do that, you'd make a hell of a poker player.

Every team in the NL Central got worse or stayed the about the same talent-wise(Cubs included), I find it impossible to think otherwise and in your heart, you know it too.
</div>
I'm not expecting them to be better because of any changes to their roster -- as I mentioned before. I expect them to be better because the core of their talent; Votto, Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto are all 25 years old or younger. I'm expecting them to be better than they were last year. I also think Harang is going to bounce back (unless his arm falls off). Encarnacion and Phillips are both developing talents, too. The Reds could take a huge step forward this season.

So yes -- I expect them to be better. And there isn't a trace of a smile on my face as I type this.
</div>
2008: Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn (greatest player in the world, see this thread), Jeff Keppinger, Ryan Freel, David Ross all on the opening day roster. These players were replaced by no one, this team is not better.

***Butcher*** · 04-28-2009, 09:02 PM

QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 07:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 07:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 06:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 04:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 28 2009, 04:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 03:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE The Cards, Reds, and Pirates are all better than last season.

No they're not.
</div>
Yeah, I'm not sure any of those teams are better than last year.
</div>
I'm pretty sure of it.
</div>
Well, you're wrong. List their opening day rosters from last year, then list their opening day rosters from this year, put them side by side, then tell me with a straight face that they are better. If you can do that, you'd make a hell of a poker player.

Every team in the NL Central got worse or stayed the about the same talent-wise(Cubs included), I find it impossible to think otherwise and in your heart, you know it too.
</div>
I'm not expecting them to be better because of any changes to their roster -- as I mentioned before. I expect them to be better because the core of their talent; Votto, Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto are all 25 years old or younger. I'm expecting them to be better than they were last year. I also think Harang is going to bounce back (unless his arm falls off). Encarnacion and Phillips are both developing talents, too. The Reds could take a huge step forward this season.

So yes -- I expect them to be better. And there isn't a trace of a smile on my face as I type this.
</div>
2008: Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn (greatest player in the world, see your thread about 2 threads down), Jeff Keppinger, Ryan Freel, David Ross all on the opening day roster. This team is not better.
</div>
Yeah?

Griffey Jr hasn't been good in quite some time (.245/.355/.432). Dunn is good. Keppinger? .266/.310/.346 Freel? He was OK. .298/.340/.359 (He's Theriot with less power). Ross? .231/.381/.366.

None of the guys you mentioned are going to be hard to replace and improve on (except for Dunn's OPS).

ruby23 · 04-28-2009, 09:07 PM

QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 08:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 07:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 07:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 06:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 04:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 28 2009, 04:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 03:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE The Cards, Reds, and Pirates are all better than last season.

No they're not.
</div>
Yeah, I'm not sure any of those teams are better than last year.
</div>
I'm pretty sure of it.
</div>
Well, you're wrong. List their opening day rosters from last year, then list their opening day rosters from this year, put them side by side, then tell me with a straight face that they are better. If you can do that, you'd make a hell of a poker player.

Every team in the NL Central got worse or stayed the about the same talent-wise(Cubs included), I find it impossible to think otherwise and in your heart, you know it too.
</div>
I'm not expecting them to be better because of any changes to their roster -- as I mentioned before. I expect them to be better because the core of their talent; Votto, Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto are all 25 years old or younger. I'm expecting them to be better than they were last year. I also think Harang is going to bounce back (unless his arm falls off). Encarnacion and Phillips are both developing talents, too. The Reds could take a huge step forward this season.

So yes -- I expect them to be better. And there isn't a trace of a smile on my face as I type this.
</div>
2008: Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn (greatest player in the world, see your thread about 2 threads down), Jeff Keppinger, Ryan Freel, David Ross all on the opening day roster. This team is not better.
</div>
Yeah?

Griffey Jr hasn't been good in quite some time (.245/.355/.432). Dunn is good. Keppinger? .266/.310/.346 Freel? He was OK. .298/.340/.359 (He's Theriot with less power). Ross? .231/.381/.366.

None of the guys you mentioned are going to be hard to replace and improve on (except for Dunn's OPS).
</div>
When you replace them with Ryan Hanigan, Jerry Hairston Jr., Darnell McDonald, Lance Nix, and Willy Tavares . . . you're taking a huge step back, no matter how you slice it.

***Butcher*** · 04-28-2009, 09:11 PM

QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 08:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 08:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 07:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 07:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 06:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 04:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 28 2009, 04:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 03:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE The Cards, Reds, and Pirates are all better than last season.

No they're not.
</div>
Yeah, I'm not sure any of those teams are better than last year.
</div>
I'm pretty sure of it.
</div>
Well, you're wrong. List their opening day rosters from last year, then list their opening day rosters from this year, put them side by side, then tell me with a straight face that they are better. If you can do that, you'd make a hell of a poker player.

Every team in the NL Central got worse or stayed the about the same talent-wise(Cubs included), I find it impossible to think otherwise and in your heart, you know it too.
</div>
I'm not expecting them to be better because of any changes to their roster -- as I mentioned before. I expect them to be better because the core of their talent; Votto, Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto are all 25 years old or younger. I'm expecting them to be better than they were last year. I also think Harang is going to bounce back (unless his arm falls off). Encarnacion and Phillips are both developing talents, too. The Reds could take a huge step forward this season.

So yes -- I expect them to be better. And there isn't a trace of a smile on my face as I type this.
</div>
2008: Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn (greatest player in the world, see your thread about 2 threads down), Jeff Keppinger, Ryan Freel, David Ross all on the opening day roster. This team is not better.
</div>
Yeah?

Griffey Jr hasn't been good in quite some time (.245/.355/.432). Dunn is good. Keppinger? .266/.310/.346 Freel? He was OK. .298/.340/.359 (He's Theriot with less power). Ross? .231/.381/.366.

None of the guys you mentioned are going to be hard to replace and improve on (except for Dunn's OPS).
</div>
When you replace them with Ryan Hanigan, Jerry Hairston Jr., Darnell McDonald, Lance Nix, and Willy Tavares . . . you're taking a huge step back, no matter how you slice it.
</div>
Of the guys you just listed, only one of them is a starter (Tavares).

ruby23 · 04-28-2009, 09:15 PM

QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 08:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 08:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 08:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 07:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 07:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 06:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 04:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 28 2009, 04:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 28 2009, 03:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE The Cards, Reds, and Pirates are all better than last season.

No they're not.
</div>
Yeah, I'm not sure any of those teams are better than last year.
</div>
I'm pretty sure of it.
</div>
Well, you're wrong. List their opening day rosters from last year, then list their opening day rosters from this year, put them side by side, then tell me with a straight face that they are better. If you can do that, you'd make a hell of a poker player.

Every team in the NL Central got worse or stayed the about the same talent-wise(Cubs included), I find it impossible to think otherwise and in your heart, you know it too.
</div>
I'm not expecting them to be better because of any changes to their roster -- as I mentioned before. I expect them to be better because the core of their talent; Votto, Bruce, Volquez, and Cueto are all 25 years old or younger. I'm expecting them to be better than they were last year. I also think Harang is going to bounce back (unless his arm falls off). Encarnacion and Phillips are both developing talents, too. The Reds could take a huge step forward this season.

So yes -- I expect them to be better. And there isn't a trace of a smile on my face as I type this.
</div>
2008: Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn (greatest player in the world, see your thread about 2 threads down), Jeff Keppinger, Ryan Freel, David Ross all on the opening day roster. This team is not better.
</div>
Yeah?

Griffey Jr hasn't been good in quite some time (.245/.355/.432). Dunn is good. Keppinger? .266/.310/.346 Freel? He was OK. .298/.340/.359 (He's Theriot with less power). Ross? .231/.381/.366.

None of the guys you mentioned are going to be hard to replace and improve on (except for Dunn's OPS).
</div>
When you replace them with Ryan Hanigan, Jerry Hairston Jr., Darnell McDonald, Lance Nix, and Willy Tavares . . . you're taking a huge step back, no matter how you slice it.
</div>
Of the guys you just listed, only one of them is a starter (Tavares).
</div>
Exactly, they lost a bunch of starters and replaced them in the starting lineup with inferior bench players, then replaced those bench players with even worse players. You're helping to prove my point.

***Butcher*** · 04-28-2009, 09:26 PM

[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img]

Their starting lineup:

Ramon Hernandez -- replaces Bako. Automatic upgrade.
Joey Votto -- played last year. Was great. I expect him to take a step forward. Slight upgrade.
Brandon Phillips -- played last year. Won a gold glove. Bad BA, but hit 21 homers. 30 the year before. Could go either way. Push.
Alex Gonzalez -- replaces Keppinger. Neither one is great, but Gonzalez hit .272/.325/.468 for the Reds in 2007. I'm leaning towards upgrade, but I'll give it a push to be fair.
Edwin Encarnacion -- played last year. Could take a step forward based on his age. Maybe not. I'll give it a push.
Chris Dickerson* -- replaces Dunn. Downgrade. Although I'm sure there are some on this site who would argue otherwise.
Willy Taveras -- replaces Patterson. Upgrade.
Jay Bruce* -- replaces Griffey. Upgrade.

Sorry. I'm not seeing the downgrade.

Kid · 04-28-2009, 09:32 PM

QUOTE (Runnys @ Apr 28 2009, 04:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 03:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Well...I sure hope the Cubs are playing in October, and if they are, Milton is actually healthy. Both of those scenarios seem less likely with each passing day.

Wow, it only took 18 games to get one of the most ridiculous statements of the season.

Well played Butchie!
</div>
I'm not raising this for the purpose of making fun of the golf comment. But, it was mid-May 2 years ago that you told someone they were wasting time by watching a bunch of fucking hacks.

My point is: stones and glass houses.

Lance · 04-28-2009, 09:35 PM

QUOTE (Kid @ Apr 28 2009, 09:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Runnys @ Apr 28 2009, 04:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 03:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Well...I sure hope the Cubs are playing in October, and if they are, Milton is actually healthy. Both of those scenarios seem less likely with each passing day.

Wow, it only took 18 games to get one of the most ridiculous statements of the season.

Well played Butchie!
</div>
I'm not raising this for the purpose of making fun of the golf comment. But, it was mid-May 2 years ago that you told someone they were wasting time by watching a bunch of fucking hacks.

My point is: stones and glass houses.
</div>

Are you sure you're not a woman in disguise? Because you never forget anything.

ruby23 · 04-28-2009, 09:43 PM

QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 08:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img]

Their starting lineup:

Ramon Hernandez -- replaces Bako. Automatic upgrade.
Joey Votto -- played last year. Was great. I expect him to take a step forward. Slight upgrade.
Brandon Phillips -- played last year. Won a gold glove. Bad BA, but hit 21 homers. 30 the year before. Could go either way. Push.
Alex Gonzalez -- replaces Keppinger. Neither one is great, but Gonzalez hit .272/.325/.468 for the Reds in 2007. I'm leaning towards upgrade, but I'll give it a push to be fair.
Edwin Encarnacion -- played last year. Could take a step forward based on his age. Maybe not. I'll give it a push.
Chris Dickerson* -- replaces Dunn. Downgrade. Although I'm sure there are some on this site who would argue otherwise.
Willy Taveras -- replaces Patterson. Upgrade.
Jay Bruce* -- replaces Griffey. Upgrade.

Sorry. I'm not seeing the downgrade.
That's because you live in a fantasy world. Hernandez doesn't replace Bako, he replaces Valentin, they're the same guy. Gonzalaez doesn't replace Keppinger, he was the starter last year. Encarnacion is hurt and is on the verge of losing his job. Their OF went form Griffey, Dunn, Bruce to Dickerson, Tavares, Bruce, that's a huge, huge, huge downgrade. Patterson was a starter for about a month last year. Their bench is terrible and missing Freel, Keppinger, and Ross. Jerry Hairston Jr. is currently playing almost everyday. You're insane if you don't think their team has taken a huge step back offensively, that's about all Len and Bob talked about in the first series.

Ace · 04-28-2009, 09:56 PM

QUOTE (Lance @ Apr 28 2009, 09:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Kid @ Apr 28 2009, 09:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Runnys @ Apr 28 2009, 04:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 03:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Well...I sure hope the Cubs are playing in October, and if they are, Milton is actually healthy. Both of those scenarios seem less likely with each passing day.

Wow, it only took 18 games to get one of the most ridiculous statements of the season.

Well played Butchie!
</div>
I'm not raising this for the purpose of making fun of the golf comment. But, it was mid-May 2 years ago that you told someone they were wasting time by watching a bunch of fucking hacks.

My point is: stones and glass houses.
</div>

Are you sure you're not a woman in disguise? Because you never forget anything.
</div>

Or an elephant.

Lance · 04-28-2009, 09:58 PM

QUOTE (Ace @ Apr 28 2009, 09:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Lance @ Apr 28 2009, 09:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Kid @ Apr 28 2009, 09:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Runnys @ Apr 28 2009, 04:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 03:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Well...I sure hope the Cubs are playing in October, and if they are, Milton is actually healthy. Both of those scenarios seem less likely with each passing day.

Wow, it only took 18 games to get one of the most ridiculous statements of the season.

Well played Butchie!
</div>
I'm not raising this for the purpose of making fun of the golf comment. But, it was mid-May 2 years ago that you told someone they were wasting time by watching a bunch of fucking hacks.

My point is: stones and glass houses.
</div>

Are you sure you're not a woman in disguise? Because you never forget anything.
</div>

Or an elephant.
</div>

I have no experience with elephants. Women never forget anything--except maybe their car keys.

***rok*** · 04-28-2009, 11:14 PM

QUOTE (Lance @ Apr 28 2009, 08:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Ace @ Apr 28 2009, 09:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Lance @ Apr 28 2009, 09:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Kid @ Apr 28 2009, 09:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Runnys @ Apr 28 2009, 04:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 28 2009, 03:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Well...I sure hope the Cubs are playing in October, and if they are, Milton is actually healthy. Both of those scenarios seem less likely with each passing day.

Wow, it only took 18 games to get one of the most ridiculous statements of the season.

Well played Butchie!
</div>
I'm not raising this for the purpose of making fun of the golf comment. But, it was mid-May 2 years ago that you told someone they were wasting time by watching a bunch of fucking hacks.

My point is: stones and glass houses.
</div>

Are you sure you're not a woman in disguise? Because you never forget anything.
</div>

Or an elephant.
</div>

I have no experience with elephants. Women never forget anything--except maybe their car keys.
</div>
They also tend to forget my name and number.

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