Soriano

[Fella]

Soriano is a fine leadoff hitter, he really is. If you go back and look at my posts when we first signed him, I was first in line to say batting him leadoff was dumb, but Ive watched him play enough games to change my mind.

His 3 years splits in OBP is above the average leadoff hitter OBP and we simply win more games when he is there. Lee, Bradley, Ramirez, Fontenot and Soto are all gonna provide pop later on in the lineup, we have no trouble scoring runs and like Clapp said, we have a productive bottom of the lineup and Alf gets more chances to drive in runs than most other leadoff guys. I also think there is something to be said for putting one of your best hitters in a position to get the most ABs.

He is never going to move anyway, at least not with Lou in charge.

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=25489:date=Mar 27 2009, 11:50 PM:name=Fella)-->QUOTE (Fella @ Mar 27 2009, 11:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soriano is a fine leadoff hitter, he really is. If you go back and look at my posts when we first signed him, I was first in line to say batting him leadoff was dumb, but Ive watched him play enough games to change my mind.

His 3 years splits in OBP is above the average leadoff hitter OBP and we simply win more games when he is there. Lee, Bradley, Ramirez, Fontenot and Soto are all gonna provide pop later on in the lineup, we have no trouble scoring runs <b>and like Clapp said, we have a productive bottom of the lineup and Alf gets more chances to drive in runs than most other leadoff guys</b>. I also think there is something to be said for putting one of your best hitters in a position to get the most ABs.

He is never going to move anyway, at least not with Lou in charge.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Good post... just wanted to point out Ruby said that, and he's right.

[kbwsb]

<!--quoteo(post=25486:date=Mar 28 2009, 12:21 AM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Mar 28 2009, 12:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->When Alf leads off the game...

698 plate apperances: <b>49 homers</b>, .310/.352/.563/.975<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
49 <b>solo</b> homers.
Kinda proves the other side's point, no?
Because nobody is saying "Alf sucks, bat him at the bottom of the lineup."
Instead, we're saying:
"Alf's strength: tremendous HR power.
Alf's weakness: has a real tough time getting on base.
In other words, by batting him leadoff, his <i>strength</i> is wasted, and his <i>weakness</i> is magnified."

Seems pretty simple.

[Fella]

<!--quoteo(post=25494:date=Mar 28 2009, 12:50 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 28 2009, 12:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Alf's weakness: has a real tough time getting on base.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

See, I think your getting a little ridiculous with that now, a real tough time getting on base? No way. I can agree he isn't the ideal .380 obp leadoff guy teams dream about, but his OBP has been very respectable in both of his seasons as a Cub, over the past 3 years his OBP is .345, the major league average is .330

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=25494:date=Mar 28 2009, 12:50 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 28 2009, 12:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25486:date=Mar 28 2009, 12:21 AM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Mar 28 2009, 12:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->When Alf leads off the game...

698 plate apperances: <b>49 homers</b>, .310/.352/.563/.975<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
49 <b>solo</b> homers.
Kinda proves the other side's point, no?
Because nobody is saying "Alf sucks, bat him at the bottom of the lineup."
Instead, we're saying:
"Alf's strength: tremendous HR power.
Alf's weakness: has a real tough time getting on base.
In other words, by batting him leadoff, his <i>strength</i> is wasted, and his <i>weakness</i> is magnified."

Seems pretty simple.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The point was he hits that well because he sees more fastballs leading off. Also...

Nobody on: .290 AVG, .870 OPS
Runners On: .268, .808
RISP: .255, .792

[kbwsb]

<!--quoteo(post=25495:date=Mar 28 2009, 01:54 AM:name=Fella)-->QUOTE (Fella @ Mar 28 2009, 01:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25494:date=Mar 28 2009, 12:50 AM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 28 2009, 12:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Alf's weakness: has a real tough time getting on base.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
See, I think your getting a little ridiculous with that now, <b>a real tough time getting on base</b>? No way. I can agree he isn't the ideal .380 obp leadoff guy teams dream about, but his OBP has been very respectable in both of his seasons as a Cub, over the past 3 years his OBP is .345, the major league average is .330
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The MLB average is .340, and his career OBP is .329.
And that .340 includes pitchers and guys like Cedeno...for leadoff hitters, the average OBP is much higher.
So, Alf is WELL below average at a leadoff hitter's <i>most</i> important skill.

But here's the kicker: he's well <b>above</b> average at another extremely important skill...pounding home runs! I'm just saying that it'd be nice to have an occasional man aboard when he blasts a 400-footer.

[Fella]

<!--quoteo(post=25497:date=Mar 28 2009, 12:58 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 28 2009, 12:58 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25495:date=Mar 28 2009, 01:54 AM:name=Fella)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Fella @ Mar 28 2009, 01:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25494:date=Mar 28 2009, 12:50 AM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 28 2009, 12:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Alf's weakness: has a real tough time getting on base.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
See, I think your getting a little ridiculous with that now, <b>a real tough time getting on base</b>? No way. I can agree he isn't the ideal .380 obp leadoff guy teams dream about, but his OBP has been very respectable in both of his seasons as a Cub, over the past 3 years his OBP is .345, the major league average is .330
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The MLB average is .340, and his career OBP is .329.
And that .340 includes pitchers and guys like Cedeno...for leadoff hitters, the average OBP is much higher.
So Alf is WELL below average at a leadoff hitters most important skill.

But here's the kicker: he's well above average at another extremely important skill...pounding home runs! I'm just saying that it'd be nice to have an occasional man aboard when he blasts a 400-footer.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I'm assuming you got the .340 number off wikipedia? Its wrong, just sayin, the the 2007 league average was .330 and 2008 league average was .329. As for leadoff hitters the average obp was .341 for "most used leadoff hitter" on all teams last year. Sorianos .344 was above the league average.

So again, your being ridiculous about it. He is no where close to "WELL below average" you are pulling that out of your ass.

[kbwsb]

Fella, if you want to call me an asshole, fine; we all adore personal insults, especially when backed up by erroneous facts, so keep it coming. You're on a roll.

The MLB OBP (obviously) fluctuates yearly. Lately, it's hovered from .334-ish to .342-ish.
Alf's career OBP is .329. That's a fact. It's a fact I gleaned from baseball-reference.com, not Wikipedia.
Dude, I love your Cub-love, but when defending Soriano, it's probably not in your best interests to bring up his on-base percentage...it's always been the weakest part of his otherwise stellar skill set.

[Fella]

<!--quoteo(post=25501:date=Mar 28 2009, 01:17 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 28 2009, 01:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25500:date=Mar 28 2009, 02:07 AM:name=Fella)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Fella @ Mar 28 2009, 02:07 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25497:date=Mar 28 2009, 12:58 AM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 28 2009, 12:58 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25495:date=Mar 28 2009, 01:54 AM:name=Fella)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Fella @ Mar 28 2009, 01:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25494:date=Mar 28 2009, 12:50 AM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 28 2009, 12:50 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Alf's weakness: has a real tough time getting on base.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
See, I think your getting a little ridiculous with that now, <b>a real tough time getting on base</b>? No way. I can agree he isn't the ideal .380 obp leadoff guy teams dream about, but his OBP has been very respectable in both of his seasons as a Cub, over the past 3 years his OBP is .345, the major league average is .330
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The MLB average is .340, and his career OBP is .329.
And that .340 includes pitchers and guys like Cedeno...for leadoff hitters, the average OBP is much higher.
So Alf is WELL below average at a leadoff hitters most important skill.

But here's the kicker: he's well above average at another extremely important skill...pounding home runs! I'm just saying that it'd be nice to have an occasional man aboard when he blasts a 400-footer.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I'm assuming you got the .340 number off wikipedia? Its wrong, just sayin, the the 2007 league average was .330 and 2008 league average was .329. As for leadoff hitters the average obp was .341 for "most used leadoff hitter" on all teams last year. Sorianos .344 was above the league average.

So again, your being ridiculous about it. He is no where close to "WELL below average" you are pulling that out of your ass.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Fella, if you want to call me an asshole, fine; we all adore personal insults, especially when backed up by erroneous facts, so keep it coming. You're on a roll.

The MLB OBP (obviously) fluctuates yearly. Lately, it's hovered from .334-ish to .342-ish.
Alf's career OBP is .329. That's a fact. It's a fact I gleaned from baseball-reference.com, not Wikipedia.
Dude, I love your Cub-love, but when defending Soriano, it's probably not in your best interests to bring up getting on base.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

C'mon Kabes, I'm not calling you an asshole, I just said you were pulling the stats out of your ass, big difference.

Also those numbers I used are from stats inc.

I've never said Soriano is a great on base guy or that he is an ideal leadoff guy, just that we win when he is there and he is not nearly as bad as you guys would have people believe.

[Clapp]

Nice going Fella. You pissed off quite possibly the coolest dude on the site. You fucking toad.

[Fella]

[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img]

I really wasn't trying to insult anyone. I was just having a baseball debate I thought.

I really am sorry if you felt that way KB.

I think we will just have to disagree on the Soriano leadoff thing. I really wouldn't even mind if he was moved, not at all, and I think eventually he would be fine. I just also think he is fine in the leadoff spot. Light years better than Patterson or Neifi like we were tortured with during Dusty's reign.

[kbwsb]

Fella, please don't sweat it. I'm an overly sensitive puss.

Back to Alf: I'm not gonna rag on you because you say "We win a lot when Alf leads off," because Clapp and many others have said the same thing.

But, to me, it's a primo example of "Post hoc," kind of a logical fallacy. Ie, "Since that event followed this one, that event must have been <i>caused</i> by this one." (coincidental correlation or "correlation not causation.") The fallacy lies in coming to a conclusion based solely on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors that might rule out the connection. (I'm getting some of these definition off the internet.) [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif[/img]

Unless you guys are implying that the Cubs are "luckier'' when Alf leads off, there would seem to be some debate as to whether there's any real correlation.

The oh-so-brilliant Ozzie Guillen made this mistake recently. After the Sox won it in 2005, they slumped in 2006. So he said, "We're gonna get back to doing the things we did in our championship year: bunting, moving the man along, small-ball, etc."
The fallacy was this; the Sox title in '05 had nothing to do with playing small-ball; it had to do with their entire pitching staff having a career year at the exact same time. Indeed, they actually scored MORE runs in '06 then they did in '05. But their pitching wasn't as good, so they faltered.

Anyway, Ozzie's "small-ball" bullshit led to a profoundly shitty 72-90 season in 2007. So that was good.

What the hell was I saying? Oh yeah; the Cubs won 97 games last year because Dempster had an incredibly surprising season, Soto, a rookie was one of the best players in the league, our pen was excellent, Edmonds came out of nowhere to play great, Lee and Aramis continued their usual excellent play, Harden came out of nowhere (thanks to Jim) to pitch brilliantly, the LSU guys both had career years, and on and on. It wasn't like we went undeafeted with alf at leadoff, and winless when he batted anywhere else in the order.

There were quite a few other factors.

[Fella]

<!--quoteo(post=25507:date=Mar 28 2009, 01:45 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 28 2009, 01:45 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Fella, I'm not gonna rag on you because you say "We win a lot when Alf leads off," because Clapp and many others have said the same thing.

But, to me, it's a primo example of "Post hoc," kind of a logical fallacy. Ie, "Since that event followed this one, that event must have been <i>caused</i> by this one." (coincidental correlation or "correlation not causation.") The fallacy lies in coming to a conclusion based solely on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors that might rule out the connection. (I'm getting some of these definition off the internet.) B)

Unless you guys are implying that the Cubs are "luckier'' when Alf leads off, there would seem to be some debate as to whether there's any real correlation.

The oh-so-brilliant Ozzie Guillen made this mistake recently. After the Sox won it in 2005, they slumped in 2006. So he said, "We're gonna get back to doing the things we did in our championship year: bunting, moving the man along, small-ball, etc."
The fallacy was this; the Sox title in '05 had nothing to do with playing small-ball; it had to do with their entire pitching staff having a career year at the exact same time. Indeed, they actually scored MORE runs in '06 then they did in '05. But their pitching wasn't as good, so they faltered.

Anyway, Ozzie's "small-ball" bullshit led to a profoundly shitty 72-90 season in 2007. So that was good.

What the hell was I saying? Oh yeah; the Cubs won 97 games last year because Dempster had an incredibly surprising season, a rookie was one of the best players in the league, our pen was excellent, Edmonds came out of nowhere to play great, Lee and Aramis continued their usual excellent play, Harden came out of nowhere to pitch brilliantly, the LSU guys both had career years, and on and on. It wasn't like we went undeafeted with alf at leadoff, and winless when he batted anywhere else in the order.

There were quite a few other factors.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I hear ya, I'm certainly not saying Alf leading off was the secret of our success, just that it isn't a problem that needs fixing.

I'm also not an advocate of small ball by any stretch of the imagination, I HATE sac bunts and am almost never in favor of starting gritty "do the little things" type guys over good hitters. I use OPS more than any other stat and I see exactly where your coming from on this.

I think Alf would be a productive middle of the order hitter, no doubt about. I simply think he does a fine job out of the leadoff spot and it doesn't need to be fixed, that's all.

[kbwsb]

Fella, I see your point. No hard feelings.

[bz]

While I tend to agree with KB and Butch here because I <i>do</i> believe that having a guy who gets on base a lot leading off is the best option, what does it really matter if the batting order doesn't mean shit aside from personal stats--something Butch and I have argued about for days on end, and I'm nearly in his boat with that notion. If you take into account his slugging, one can assume that each time he is "on base" via a HR it is a run, that is a good thing, or he is in scoring position (also a good thing) or he gets a single and can steal himself into scoring position (I would love to see Soriano's Ace adjusted SLG%.) I guess my point is that it doesn't matter where Soriano bats. Look at his RBIs. Look at his runs. Look at his OPS+. Dude will be fine wherever. In this instance, I say if it ain't broke don't fix it.