03-05-2009, 09:29 AM
Fuk went 0-1 with 4 walks today vs. China. If he has that eye back, he's going to be successful again.
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Cubs Interested In Bobby Crosby
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03-05-2009, 09:58 AM
<!--quoteo(post=21930:date=Mar 5 2009, 01:59 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 5 2009, 01:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Keep in mind that Bill James, PECOTA, and all the other projections are all 100% based on math. So they're basing Fuk's numbers on how he did in Japan (where he kicked ass), and his <i>total</i> numbers from last year.
If a Japanese import pitcher goes 10-1 in his first half season, then goes 1-10 in the second half (and looks absolutely terrible doing it), would you project him as a .500 pitcher again the following year?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--> Keep in mind, KB only likes to look at convoluted stats like PECOTA, VORP, OPS+, etc., etc. when they support his argument. When they agree with what he says, they are golden, they are right and true. When they don't point towards his desired outcome, they are garbage, totally convoluted, add no value. KB, do you see why it's usually fruitless to try to have any rational discussion with you about stats, player's ability, player's value, etc., etc? There's a reason why most people don't take your arguments seriously. That said, Fuk is probably gonna suck.
03-05-2009, 11:12 AM
I am in the minority but I think Fuk is going to be just fine this year. As Sleepy said, his strike zone recognition is key.
03-05-2009, 11:20 AM
I don't think .270/.370 is out of the question at all, even with his huge 2nd half struggles he was still .257/.359 last year. I think those predictions are pretty solid.
By the way I guess I missed the Miles/Crosby similar hitters discussion, but they really arent even remotely close offensively in any way, in fact they are pretty much polar opposites. Crosby is a low average, swing for the fences guy and Miles is a high contact high average, low walk guy. Miles was also a clear mile better last year, and a lot better over each of the past 3 seasons. I don't want Miles to start either, and I've been quite vocal about wishing we kept Derosa but some of this Miles stuff is beyond ridiculous.
03-05-2009, 12:55 PM
<!--quoteo(post=21930:date=Mar 5 2009, 01:59 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 5 2009, 01:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Keep in mind that Bill James, PECOTA, and all the other projections are all 100% based on math. So they're basing Fuk's numbers on how he did in Japan (where he kicked ass), and his <i>total</i> numbers from last year.
If a Japanese import pitcher goes 10-1 in his first half season, then goes 1-10 in the second half (and looks absolutely terrible doing it), would you project him as a .500 pitcher again the following year?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--> Again, what's your projection for Fuk?
03-05-2009, 12:59 PM
<!--quoteo(post=21965:date=Mar 5 2009, 09:20 AM:name=Fella)-->QUOTE (Fella @ Mar 5 2009, 09:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't think .270/.370 is out of the question at all, even with his huge 2nd half struggles he was still .257/.359 last year. I think those predictions are pretty solid.
By the way I guess I missed the Miles/Crosby similar hitters discussion, but they really arent even remotely close offensively in any way, in fact they are pretty much polar opposites. Crosby is a low average, swing for the fences guy and Miles is a high contact high average, low walk guy. Miles was also a clear mile better last year, and a lot better over each of the past 3 seasons. I don't want Miles to start either, and I've been quite vocal about wishing we kept Derosa but some of this Miles stuff is beyond ridiculous.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--> Their career OPS is .007 apart. What is ridiculous exactly? Yeah, Miles was pretty decent last season but it was a career year thus far, and who knows if that will keep up or if he'll return to the shittiness of the rest of his career. I'm not holding my breath.
03-05-2009, 02:51 PM
<!--quoteo(post=21984:date=Mar 5 2009, 10:59 AM:name=Brock)-->QUOTE (Brock @ Mar 5 2009, 10:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=21965:date=Mar 5 2009, 09:20 AM:name=Fella)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Fella @ Mar 5 2009, 09:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't think .270/.370 is out of the question at all, even with his huge 2nd half struggles he was still .257/.359 last year. I think those predictions are pretty solid.
By the way I guess I missed the Miles/Crosby similar hitters discussion, but they really arent even remotely close offensively in any way, in fact they are pretty much polar opposites. Crosby is a low average, swing for the fences guy and Miles is a high contact high average, low walk guy. Miles was also a clear mile better last year, and a lot better over each of the past 3 seasons. I don't want Miles to start either, and I've been quite vocal about wishing we kept Derosa but some of this Miles stuff is beyond ridiculous.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--> Their career OPS is .007 apart. What is ridiculous exactly? Yeah, Miles was pretty decent last season but it was a career year thus far, and who knows if that will keep up or if he'll return to the shittiness of the rest of his career. I'm not holding my breath. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> it is ridiculous. ops isn't the only stat. sometimes you need to look deeper. crosby has a similar ops because he hit 22 home runs 4 years ago. he has a little power. he also has little else. from an offensive perspective, miles is much better. i realize that batting average doesn't mean shit anymore, but mile hits almost .60 points higher than crosby lifetime and has a better obp. crosby sucks.
Wang.
03-05-2009, 03:09 PM
<!--quoteo(post=21944:date=Mar 5 2009, 08:18 AM:name=savant)-->QUOTE (savant @ Mar 5 2009, 08:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I've seen a couple of the sabre guys talking about how it takes japenese players 2-3 years to put up there projected numbers in the states after leaving japan.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Scarey's statistical analysis showed that Japanese players improve significantly in their second year in MLB [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif[/img]
03-05-2009, 04:56 PM
<!--quoteo(post=22022:date=Mar 5 2009, 01:09 PM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Mar 5 2009, 01:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=21944:date=Mar 5 2009, 08:18 AM:name=savant)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (savant @ Mar 5 2009, 08:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I've seen a couple of the sabre guys talking about how it takes japenese players 2-3 years to put up there projected numbers in the states after leaving japan.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Scarey's statistical analysis showed that Japanese players improve significantly in their second year in MLB [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif[/img] <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> Repost that shit. I never got to see it.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
03-05-2009, 05:09 PM
<!--quoteo(post=21983:date=Mar 5 2009, 10:55 AM:name=Brock)-->QUOTE (Brock @ Mar 5 2009, 10:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=21930:date=Mar 5 2009, 01:59 AM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 5 2009, 01:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Keep in mind that Bill James, PECOTA, and all the other projections are all 100% based on math. So they're basing Fuk's numbers on how he did in Japan (where he kicked ass), and his <i>total</i> numbers from last year.
If a Japanese import pitcher goes 10-1 in his first half season, then goes 1-10 in the second half (and looks absolutely terrible doing it), would you project him as a .500 pitcher again the following year?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--> Again, what's your projection for Fuk? <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> Still waiting... 
03-05-2009, 05:32 PM
<!--quoteo(post=22059:date=Mar 5 2009, 03:09 PM:name=Brock)-->QUOTE (Brock @ Mar 5 2009, 03:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=21983:date=Mar 5 2009, 10:55 AM:name=Brock)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brock @ Mar 5 2009, 10:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=21930:date=Mar 5 2009, 01:59 AM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 5 2009, 01:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Keep in mind that Bill James, PECOTA, and all the other projections are all 100% based on math. So they're basing Fuk's numbers on how he did in Japan (where he kicked ass), and his <i>total</i> numbers from last year.
If a Japanese import pitcher goes 10-1 in his first half season, then goes 1-10 in the second half (and looks absolutely terrible doing it), would you project him as a .500 pitcher again the following year?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--> Again, what's your projection for Fuk? <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> Still waiting... <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> I'm not KB, but I anticipate something like .255/.335/.415. I don't expect him to see a whole lot of playing time because he's going to suck right out of the gates and Lou will bench him.
03-05-2009, 05:35 PM
He really looked good in that game today in the 3 plate appearances I saw, all walks. I know it was against a crappy China team, but just his plate approach and comfort at the plate looked good. I believe 2 of those walks were against lefties and he must've seen 18-20 pitches in those at bats.
@TheBlogfines
03-05-2009, 05:39 PM
<!--quoteo(post=22076:date=Mar 5 2009, 03:35 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Mar 5 2009, 03:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->He really looked good in that game today in the 3 plate appearances I saw, all walks. I know it was against a crappy China team, but just his plate approach and comfort at the plate looked good. I believe 2 of those walks were against lefties and he must've seen 18-20 pitches in those at bats.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That's encouraging, I guess. But he looked absolutely lost against ML pitching in the second half last year. Once the book was out on his weaknesses, he got abused.
03-05-2009, 05:41 PM
<!--quoteo(post=22075:date=Mar 5 2009, 03:32 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Mar 5 2009, 03:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=22059:date=Mar 5 2009, 03:09 PM:name=Brock)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brock @ Mar 5 2009, 03:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=21983:date=Mar 5 2009, 10:55 AM:name=Brock)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brock @ Mar 5 2009, 10:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=21930:date=Mar 5 2009, 01:59 AM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 5 2009, 01:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Keep in mind that Bill James, PECOTA, and all the other projections are all 100% based on math. So they're basing Fuk's numbers on how he did in Japan (where he kicked ass), and his <i>total</i> numbers from last year.
If a Japanese import pitcher goes 10-1 in his first half season, then goes 1-10 in the second half (and looks absolutely terrible doing it), would you project him as a .500 pitcher again the following year?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--> Again, what's your projection for Fuk? <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> Still waiting... <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> I'm not KB, but I anticipate something like .255/.335/.415. I don't expect him to see a whole lot of playing time because he's going to suck right out of the gates and Lou will bench him. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> Fair enough. Now if someone else would show some stones and throw a prediction out there it might look better than him just scoffing at others.
03-05-2009, 05:46 PM
<!--quoteo(post=22077:date=Mar 5 2009, 03:39 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Mar 5 2009, 03:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=22076:date=Mar 5 2009, 03:35 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Mar 5 2009, 03:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->He really looked good in that game today in the 3 plate appearances I saw, all walks. I know it was against a crappy China team, but just his plate approach and comfort at the plate looked good. I believe 2 of those walks were against lefties and he must've seen 18-20 pitches in those at bats.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That's encouraging, I guess. But he looked absolutely lost against ML pitching in the second half last year. <b>Once the book was out on his weaknesses, he got abused.</b> <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> That says it all, to me. Numerous folks have said that playing in the majors "is all about adjustments." On a 1-10 scale, how well would you say Fuk adjusted last season? That's why my projections would be different than Butch's. I foresee very little power, but perhaps a higher OBP because of his good eye. .245/.350/.380 ? And like Butch said, if he's putting up those numbers, Lou will bench him. I hope Fuk puts up a better line. Maybe he will. But it could also be worse. .217/.314/.326 was his line in the 2nd half, last year. Gruesome.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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