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+--- Thread: Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves (/thread-5991.html)
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - Butcher - 12-16-2009
I can't believe I'm having this discussion with you, BT.
Let me quote something for you here from this site: Hardball Times
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->However, while Bonds chasing perhaps the sport's most prestigious record receives all the attention, another remarkable chase is going completely unnoticed. <b>Despite being in just his 11th season in the majors, Cubs infielder Neifi Perez has a chance to become arguably the single worst hitter in baseball history. Perez, whom I once compared to the worst doctor in the world, currently holds the record for worst career Runs Created Above Average (RCAA) total among active players:</b>
RCAA
NEIFI PEREZ -329
Royce Clayton -288
Rey Sanchez -247
Mike Matheny -222
Brad Ausmus -207
<b>Much like Bonds, Perez has distanced himself from the rest of the field, coming in at an astounding 329 runs below average during his career while the next-worst hitter, Royce Clayton, is at just -288. When it comes to ineptitude at the plate, beating Clayton is no easy task. That Perez is able to blow him out, along with the rest of the horrible hitters around baseball, is something that should not be overlooked. </b>He is truly a boy among men.
Having a level of incompetence that is unmatched among your peers is impressive, but the real test of offensive inferiority comes in a comparison to the elite out-makers in the sport's history. <b>Like any true great, Perez's resume stands up to the test, as his career RCAA is among the worst in modern baseball history:</b>
RCAA
Ski Melillo -355
Tommy Thevenow -351
NEIFI PEREZ -329
Bill Bergen -312
Tim Foli -309
Larry Bowa -307
Alfredo Griffin -306
Ozzie Guillen -305
Don Kessinger -305
Ed Brinkman -300
Ladies and gentlemen, The Negative 300 Club.
Whereas the spotlight has been on Bonds' climb up the home run leaderboard for years, Perez has quietly crept past the game's most impotent hitters. In fact, with his -27 RCAA in 2005, Perez leaped over Don Kessinger, Ozzie Guillen, Alfredo Griffin, Larry Bowa, Tim Foli, and Bill Bergen. It was a season for the ages, much like when Bonds' 73 homers in 2001 propelled him past all-time greats Eddie Murray, Mel Ott, Eddie Mathews, Ernie Banks, Ted Williams, Willie McCovey, Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, and Reggie Jackson.
Bonds being within striking distance of Ruth and less than two healthy, productive seasons away from passing Aaron has been well-documented, but Perez has stealthily put himself in a similar position. His RCAA totals for the past three years are -20, -23, and -27, which means all Perez needs to overtake Tommy Thevenow and the immortal Ski Melillo for the top spot is a typically awful season of -26 RCAA. With manager Dusty Baker's help, Perez can get there.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
As long as you continue to try and defend the Neifi Perez signing, I'll continue to use your post as a punchline. I don't care how slick his fielding was (and he wasn't Ozzie Smith at SS), he was simply a god-awful batter. It's impossible to convince me (or any rational human being) that Neifi wasn't utterly replaceable by nearly any player off the scrap heap.
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - Clapp - 12-16-2009
<!--quoteo(post=71947:date=Dec 16 2009, 01:06 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 16 2009, 01:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I can't believe I'm having this discussion with you, BT.
Let me quote something for you here from this site: Hardball Times
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->However, while Bonds chasing perhaps the sport's most prestigious record receives all the attention, another remarkable chase is going completely unnoticed. <b>Despite being in just his 11th season in the majors, Cubs infielder Neifi Perez has a chance to become arguably the single worst hitter in baseball history. Perez, whom I once compared to the worst doctor in the world, currently holds the record for worst career Runs Created Above Average (RCAA) total among active players:</b>
RCAA
NEIFI PEREZ -329
Royce Clayton -288
Rey Sanchez -247
Mike Matheny -222
Brad Ausmus -207
<b>Much like Bonds, Perez has distanced himself from the rest of the field, coming in at an astounding 329 runs below average during his career while the next-worst hitter, Royce Clayton, is at just -288. When it comes to ineptitude at the plate, beating Clayton is no easy task. That Perez is able to blow him out, along with the rest of the horrible hitters around baseball, is something that should not be overlooked. </b>He is truly a boy among men.
Having a level of incompetence that is unmatched among your peers is impressive, but the real test of offensive inferiority comes in a comparison to the elite out-makers in the sport's history. <b>Like any true great, Perez's resume stands up to the test, as his career RCAA is among the worst in modern baseball history:</b>
RCAA
Ski Melillo -355
Tommy Thevenow -351
NEIFI PEREZ -329
Bill Bergen -312
Tim Foli -309
Larry Bowa -307
Alfredo Griffin -306
Ozzie Guillen -305
Don Kessinger -305
Ed Brinkman -300
Ladies and gentlemen, The Negative 300 Club.
Whereas the spotlight has been on Bonds' climb up the home run leaderboard for years, Perez has quietly crept past the game's most impotent hitters. In fact, with his -27 RCAA in 2005, Perez leaped over Don Kessinger, Ozzie Guillen, Alfredo Griffin, Larry Bowa, Tim Foli, and Bill Bergen. It was a season for the ages, much like when Bonds' 73 homers in 2001 propelled him past all-time greats Eddie Murray, Mel Ott, Eddie Mathews, Ernie Banks, Ted Williams, Willie McCovey, Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, and Reggie Jackson.
Bonds being within striking distance of Ruth and less than two healthy, productive seasons away from passing Aaron has been well-documented, but Perez has stealthily put himself in a similar position. His RCAA totals for the past three years are -20, -23, and -27, which means all Perez needs to overtake Tommy Thevenow and the immortal Ski Melillo for the top spot is a typically awful season of -26 RCAA. With manager Dusty Baker's help, Perez can get there.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
As long as you continue to try and defend the Neifi Perez signing, I'll continue to use your post as a punchline. I don't care how slick his fielding was (and he wasn't Ozzie Smith at SS), he was simply a god-awful batter. It's impossible to convince me (or any rational human being) that Neifi wasn't utterly replaceable by nearly any player off the scrap heap.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And what's even more amazing when you think of all that, is that a home run of his got us into the 98 playoffs.
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - veryzer - 12-16-2009
I would say that the Michael Barret acquisition worked out well for a couple years, Todd walker was decent for a year, and Randall Simon provided a spark.
I would also say that the way he handled the Sosa situation sucked. Not trading Pie and patterson while they had some value was dumb too.
Though I would say that Soriano was a good pickup, I don't believe he was what the cubs needed at the time. Carlos Lee was what we needed.
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - bz - 12-16-2009
Ray Sadler for Randall Simon was good.
Damien Miller for Michael Barrett was good.
Sammy for Hairston and Fontenot is...I'm not sure.
LaToya for Aardsma and Jerome Williams was good.
Juan Pierre trade was not good.
Maddux for Izturis was pathetic.
Freddie Bynum for Kevin Hart was good.
Rocky Cherry and Scott Moore for Trachsel was stupid.
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - SandbergMVP1984 - 12-16-2009
What about Grabow this year and how he handled the Harden situation by not trading or not offering arbitration?
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - Andy - 12-16-2009
I took that spreadsheet and added all the trades that occurred in 2008 and 2009 along with the signings that made any difference at all.
The spreadsheet.
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - The Dude - 12-16-2009
<!--quoteo(post=71960:date=Dec 16 2009, 02:59 PM:name=Andy)-->QUOTE (Andy @ Dec 16 2009, 02:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I took that spreadsheet and added all the trades that occurred in 2008 and 2009 along with the signings that made any difference at all.
The spreadsheet.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Looks like the Eyre/Howry/Remlinger signings are missing..... the beginning of his love affair with middle relief.
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - dk123 - 12-16-2009
I used to think Hendry was at least above average, but now I think he is pretty miserable. The problem is that you can't look at the moves in a vacuum. Sure, he's made some good trades and signings, but in the end, the way those parts he has acquired have combined into a team have been disappointing. I think Hendry would make a hell of a pitching scout, but in terms of his overall abilities as GM, I really think he is fairly poor. Certainly not bottom of the barrel, but not very good. I do think he has gotten a bit unlucky as well, and that is hard to factor in to things, so I give him the benefit of the doubt in certain areas. I think that barring some kind of miracle this season, it would be wise to replace him.
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - wcplummer - 12-16-2009
We need to compare him to someone with similar payroll, expectations, etc. Every team has good/bad. I bet if you look at the Yankees you will find some really bad things also.
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - BT - 12-16-2009
<!--quoteo(post=71947:date=Dec 16 2009, 02:06 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 16 2009, 02:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I can't believe I'm having this discussion with you, BT.
Let me quote something for you here from this site: Hardball Times
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->However, while Bonds chasing perhaps the sport's most prestigious record receives all the attention, another remarkable chase is going completely unnoticed. <b>Despite being in just his 11th season in the majors, Cubs infielder Neifi Perez has a chance to become arguably the single worst hitter in baseball history. Perez, whom I once compared to the worst doctor in the world, currently holds the record for worst career Runs Created Above Average (RCAA) total among active players:</b>
RCAA
NEIFI PEREZ -329
Royce Clayton -288
Rey Sanchez -247
Mike Matheny -222
Brad Ausmus -207
<b>Much like Bonds, Perez has distanced himself from the rest of the field, coming in at an astounding 329 runs below average during his career while the next-worst hitter, Royce Clayton, is at just -288. When it comes to ineptitude at the plate, beating Clayton is no easy task. That Perez is able to blow him out, along with the rest of the horrible hitters around baseball, is something that should not be overlooked. </b>He is truly a boy among men.
Having a level of incompetence that is unmatched among your peers is impressive, but the real test of offensive inferiority comes in a comparison to the elite out-makers in the sport's history. <b>Like any true great, Perez's resume stands up to the test, as his career RCAA is among the worst in modern baseball history:</b>
RCAA
Ski Melillo -355
Tommy Thevenow -351
NEIFI PEREZ -329
Bill Bergen -312
Tim Foli -309
Larry Bowa -307
Alfredo Griffin -306
Ozzie Guillen -305
Don Kessinger -305
Ed Brinkman -300
Ladies and gentlemen, The Negative 300 Club.
Whereas the spotlight has been on Bonds' climb up the home run leaderboard for years, Perez has quietly crept past the game's most impotent hitters. In fact, with his -27 RCAA in 2005, Perez leaped over Don Kessinger, Ozzie Guillen, Alfredo Griffin, Larry Bowa, Tim Foli, and Bill Bergen. It was a season for the ages, much like when Bonds' 73 homers in 2001 propelled him past all-time greats Eddie Murray, Mel Ott, Eddie Mathews, Ernie Banks, Ted Williams, Willie McCovey, Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, and Reggie Jackson.
Bonds being within striking distance of Ruth and less than two healthy, productive seasons away from passing Aaron has been well-documented, but Perez has stealthily put himself in a similar position. His RCAA totals for the past three years are -20, -23, and -27, which means all Perez needs to overtake Tommy Thevenow and the immortal Ski Melillo for the top spot is a typically awful season of -26 RCAA. With manager Dusty Baker's help, Perez can get there.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
As long as you continue to try and defend the Neifi Perez signing, I'll continue to use your post as a punchline. I don't care how slick his fielding was (and he wasn't Ozzie Smith at SS), he was simply a god-awful batter. It's impossible to convince me (or any rational human being) that Neifi wasn't utterly replaceable by nearly any player off the scrap heap.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You are right Butch. Fuck every stat that shows he was an above replacement level player in 2005 (which is the only fucking point I'm making), instead you will trot out that he was a really awful OFFENSIVE player during his entire CAREER.
What the fuck do you want from me? I didn't create Warp. I didn't create winshares. I didn't create fangraphs salary tool. Every single one of them says you are wrong. So you invent an argument that never fucking took place (BT says Perez was a great offensive player during his career!), and ignore the stats that actually matter to the argument. There is a word for this kind of argument, but last time I brought it up, I was accused of being hostile.
Find me a stat that says Perez was worse than a replacement player in 2005 (or at least he was bad enough that his lousy 2006 negates his 2005 value), when this supposedly hideous contract was signed, and we can have an argument.
Just for clarity, I'M not defending the signing. The fucking stats are. I will fully concede Perez was an awful offensive player. He was a bad offensive player in 2005 and awful for his career. But shortstops have the tendency to also play defense. And if every stat I can think of shows that his bad offense combined with his good defense means he was worth more than 1.75 a year, then THAT is what I will think. Show me one that doesn't and you will have a valid argument.
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - Ace - 12-16-2009
<!--quoteo(post=71874:date=Dec 16 2009, 12:14 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Dec 16 2009, 12:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->If you go by fangraphs, Fukudome wasn't a "bad" signing at all. He wasn't great, and he hasn't lived up to expectations, he had an obp of 375 last year, and he plays good defense. Fangraphs has him "earning" 18.4 million over the last 2 years while making 19.5 million. Not anything to write home about, but I think his miserable 2nd half o 2008 has tainted peoples view of him.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm way late, but I'd like to point out - using Fuk's salary of the last two years to evaluate how much he's "earned" ignores the fact that his contract is very, very backloaded. Translation: he's got to step it up absurdly the next two years to keep "earning" his salary.
I prefer to simply think of a guy's salary as spread out evenly over his years. Thus, Fuk has dramatically underperformed the $12 million he's getting paid every year.
As many of us expected he would. This one was another bad move by Hendry.
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - leonardsipes - 12-16-2009
Neifi was signed to a 2 year 5 mil contract after the '05 season. Cubs had him in '05 for about 1 mil. Neifi did carry the Cubs in sept '04 and he was much more valuable than his OPS+ in '05. It is hard to argue in favor of the 2/5 contract. However, I liked Neifi and I think it is worthwhile for a big payroll,contending team to pay that much for a solid back up middle infielder.
At the time I was fine with the both the Perez and Miles deals. Both of them had very bad years, however Hendry was able to unload both of them without much damage done.
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - Butcher - 12-16-2009
<!--quoteo(post=71970:date=Dec 16 2009, 04:17 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Dec 16 2009, 04:17 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=71947:date=Dec 16 2009, 02:06 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 16 2009, 02:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I can't believe I'm having this discussion with you, BT.
Let me quote something for you here from this site: Hardball Times
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->However, while Bonds chasing perhaps the sport's most prestigious record receives all the attention, another remarkable chase is going completely unnoticed. <b>Despite being in just his 11th season in the majors, Cubs infielder Neifi Perez has a chance to become arguably the single worst hitter in baseball history. Perez, whom I once compared to the worst doctor in the world, currently holds the record for worst career Runs Created Above Average (RCAA) total among active players:</b>
RCAA
NEIFI PEREZ -329
Royce Clayton -288
Rey Sanchez -247
Mike Matheny -222
Brad Ausmus -207
<b>Much like Bonds, Perez has distanced himself from the rest of the field, coming in at an astounding 329 runs below average during his career while the next-worst hitter, Royce Clayton, is at just -288. When it comes to ineptitude at the plate, beating Clayton is no easy task. That Perez is able to blow him out, along with the rest of the horrible hitters around baseball, is something that should not be overlooked. </b>He is truly a boy among men.
Having a level of incompetence that is unmatched among your peers is impressive, but the real test of offensive inferiority comes in a comparison to the elite out-makers in the sport's history. <b>Like any true great, Perez's resume stands up to the test, as his career RCAA is among the worst in modern baseball history:</b>
RCAA
Ski Melillo -355
Tommy Thevenow -351
NEIFI PEREZ -329
Bill Bergen -312
Tim Foli -309
Larry Bowa -307
Alfredo Griffin -306
Ozzie Guillen -305
Don Kessinger -305
Ed Brinkman -300
Ladies and gentlemen, The Negative 300 Club.
Whereas the spotlight has been on Bonds' climb up the home run leaderboard for years, Perez has quietly crept past the game's most impotent hitters. In fact, with his -27 RCAA in 2005, Perez leaped over Don Kessinger, Ozzie Guillen, Alfredo Griffin, Larry Bowa, Tim Foli, and Bill Bergen. It was a season for the ages, much like when Bonds' 73 homers in 2001 propelled him past all-time greats Eddie Murray, Mel Ott, Eddie Mathews, Ernie Banks, Ted Williams, Willie McCovey, Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, and Reggie Jackson.
Bonds being within striking distance of Ruth and less than two healthy, productive seasons away from passing Aaron has been well-documented, but Perez has stealthily put himself in a similar position. His RCAA totals for the past three years are -20, -23, and -27, which means all Perez needs to overtake Tommy Thevenow and the immortal Ski Melillo for the top spot is a typically awful season of -26 RCAA. With manager Dusty Baker's help, Perez can get there.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
As long as you continue to try and defend the Neifi Perez signing, I'll continue to use your post as a punchline. I don't care how slick his fielding was (and he wasn't Ozzie Smith at SS), he was simply a god-awful batter. It's impossible to convince me (or any rational human being) that Neifi wasn't utterly replaceable by nearly any player off the scrap heap.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You are right Butch. Fuck every stat that shows he was an above replacement level player in 2005 (which is the only fucking point I'm making), instead you will trot out that he was a really awful OFFENSIVE player during his entire CAREER.
What the fuck do you want from me? I didn't create Warp. I didn't create winshares. I didn't create fangraphs salary tool. Every single one of them says you are wrong. So you invent an argument that never fucking took place (BT says Perez was a great offensive player during his career!), and ignore the stats that actually matter to the argument. There is a word for this kind of argument, but last time I brought it up, I was accused of being hostile.
Find me a stat that says Perez was worse than a replacement player in 2005 (or at least he was bad enough that his lousy 2006 negates his 2005 value), when this supposedly hideous contract was signed, and we can have an argument.
Just for clarity, I'M not defending the signing. The fucking stats are. I will fully concede Perez was an awful offensive player. He was a bad offensive player in 2005 and awful for his career. But shortstops have the tendency to also play defense. And if every stat I can think of shows that his bad offense combined with his good defense means he was worth more than 1.75 a year, then THAT is what I will think. Show me one that doesn't and you will have a valid argument.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So, do you (not Fangraphs) believe Neifi Perez was worth $2.5M a season?
Neifi hit .274/.298/.383 in 2005. That is fucking atrocious.
Ronny Cedeno hit .269/.328/.352 in 2008. Also fucking atrocious. (They had almost the exact same OPS, by the way, in those two seasons).
Neifi made $2,500,000 for his efforts. Ronny Cedeno, on the other hand, made $407,000.
Are you going to tell me that Neifi Perez's defense was light years beyond Ronny Cedeno's? So much better, in fact, that he deserved to be paid $2,093,000 more than him?
This is my argument, BT. Players who hit .274/.298/.383 don't earn $2.5M. They earn 400k. Or...at least they should.
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - Gad - 12-16-2009
<!--quoteo(post=71975:date=Dec 16 2009, 04:09 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 16 2009, 04:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Are you going to tell me that Neifi Perez's defense was light years beyond Ronny Cedeno's? So much better, in fact, that he deserved to be paid $2,093,000 more than him?
This is my argument, BT. Players who hit .274/.298/.383 don't earn $2.5M. They earn 400k. Or...at least they should.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Well using UZR/150 which is a stat that determines how many runs a player's defense makes up or costs you over the course of a season.
2005 Neifi Perez had a UZR/150 rating of +12.5 at SS which is to say his glove saved the Cubs 12.5 runs over the course of a full season. Perez had a career +3.2 rating as a SS which is why he was continually able to get work despite being a horrible offensive player.
2008 Ronny Cedeno had a UZR/150 rating of -27.4 at SS which is to say that if Cedeno had played 150 games that year his glove would have cost the Cubs 27.4 runs more than an average SS. It was a bit of an outlier from his career totals but Cedeno is slightly under -6 for his career so he isn't considered a strong defender under any circumstances.
So comparing these 2 seasons, 2005 Neifi was worth 39.9 more runs as a defensive SS than 2008 Cedeno. A pretty amazing margin you have to admit.
Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves - Ace - 12-16-2009
I can't help but remain suspicious of defensive metrics.