Farm System

[Auz]

Wilson Conteras is the top catching prospect in baseball according to MLB.com

[jstraw]

Great, bring on the NL DH.

[rok]

Just announced today. I don't have an ESPN insider subscription so use your imaginations on the reasoning behind this.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/s...s-2016-mlb


Keith Law's 2016 Farm System Rankings (2015 Ranking in Parenthesis):


1. Atlanta Braves (6)

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (10)

3. Minnesota Twins (2)

4. Chicago Cubs (1)

5. Milwaukee Brewers (28)

6. Philadelphia Phillies (25)

7. Colorado Rockies (8)

8. Pittsburgh Pirates (7)

9. Texas Rangers (11)

10. Boston Red Sox (5)

11. Cleveland Indians (16)

12. Cincinnati Reds (17)

13. New York Yankees (20)

14. Tampa Bay Rays (23)

15. Washington Nationals (9)

16. New York Mets (4)

17. Houston Astros (3)

18. Oakland Athletics (26)

19. St. Louis Cardinals (13)

20. San Diego Padres (18)

21. San Francisco Giants (29)

22. Chicago White Sox (12)

23. Kansas City Royals (15)

24. Arizona Diamondbacks (14)

25. Toronto Blue Jays (19)

26. Detroit Tigers (26)

27. Baltimore Orioles (22)

28. Seattle Mariners (21)

29. Miami Marlins (24)

30. Los Angeles Angels (27)

[Kid]

4. Chicago Cubs
2015 rank: 1

Players in Top 100 (2016): 6

They graduated Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell, but are still loaded with talent, albeit most of it unlikely to help before 2017. The system has long been light on arms, but there's some pitching coming if you squint hard enough into the distance.

[funkster]

Was that the extent of his analysis on it?

[Kid]

Yeah.  I assume more is coming when he releases his top 100.

[VanSlawAndCottoCheese]

So Law's 2015 rankings consisted of two 26th-rated organizations (A's, Tigers) and no 30th? Even if the A's and Tigers were tied at 26, he should have just skipped 27 and rated the Angles at 28.

 

I declare a mistrial!

[Kid]

So Law's 2015 rankings consisted of two 26th-rated organizations (A's, Tigers) and no 30th? Even if the A's and Tigers were tied at 26, he should have just skipped 27 and rated the Angles at 28.

 

I declare a mistrial!

 

I think the Angles should have been rated at 90.

[Kid]

Cubs in Law's top 100:

 

15. Gleyber Torres, SS
Age: 19 (12/13/96) | B/T: R/R

Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175

Top level: High-A | 2015: NR

 

The Cubs' system was plundered by promotions this past season, with Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber all making their debuts in Chicago and playing well, so their best prospect now is a 19-year-old whose name is likely unfamiliar to most fans of other teams. Torres is still a few years away from the majors and may find himself blocked by Russell when he's ready, but what he did as the Midwest League's second-youngest regular in 2015 marks him as a potential superstar in his own right.

 

Torres looked much older than 18 in terms of his plate skills during the 2015 season; he stayed behind the ball really well, with great hand-eye coordination and the ability to shoot a ball to the outfield the way Derek Jeter would do with two strikes. It's a very easy swing, and Torres keeps his head steady throughout in a way many major league hitters couldn't emulate. He's very smooth at shortstop already, with plus hands and a plus arm, showing me in Myrtle Beach's playoff series against Wilmington that he could come across the bag well on a difficult double play. He needs to continue to get stronger, as well as work on some of his reads in the field and on the bases, where his physical tools have exceeded his acumen. He has a good chance to jump into the top 5 by next year.

 

27. Willson Contreras, C
Age: 23 (5/13/92) | B/T: R/R

Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175

Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR

 

Contreras had an unbelievably non-descript career in the Cubs' system coming into 2015, never posting an OBP over .320 and only once slugging at least .400, even though he wasn't young for the levels he played. There was no reason to expect him to break out and become one of the best catcher prospects in baseball, but he did, with huge across-the-board improvements that have made him a legitimate two-way threat behind the plate.

 

Contreras is a strong, coordinated, athletic kid with great body control, but none of that had manifested in his performances prior to 2015, except in his generally good contact rates. His bat speed seemed to pick up in '15, and with a clean, direct path to the ball, he's going to make a lot of hard contact, though mostly singles and doubles. There isn't big loft in the swing, although he's physically strong enough to hit for power, especially if he had a little more rotation in his path. Behind the plate, he has an easy 70 arm and good energy and actions but needs work on the mechanics of receiving and framing, as well as the finer points, like calling a game.

 

With just one year of performance like this, there's certainly regression risk, but the tools and athleticism support a projection of an everyday catcher who hits for high averages without striking out and who controls the opposing running game.

 

47. Ian Happ, 2B
Age: 21 (8/12/94) | B/T: B/R

Height: 6-0 | Weight: 205

Top level: Class A | 2015: NE

 

Happ was a very advanced college bat heading into the 2015 draft, leading the Cubs to take him ninth overall even though a lot of clubs retained questions about his ultimate position since he played a lot of first base and corner outfield as an amateur. He's a better athlete than that description implies, however, more than capable of playing an average second base, and with an outstanding approach that leads to high OBPs he should be a fast mover through the low minors.

 

Happ is a switch-hitter, smoother and shorter from the left side, less consistent and longer right-handed, although the latter could improve with coaching help and more reps. He has 15-20 homer potential, driven more by his contact rate than any need to get stronger or change a swing. He has played all over the place between his amateur days and limited pro experience, with the Cubs sending him out as an outfielder, including center field, for his first summer in the organization, but I still think his ultimate position will be second base, as he has the agility and hands for it and the bat will certainly profile there. He's not afraid to run deep counts and will probably end up as a high-walk, moderately high-strikeout hitter (as if that means anything at all in 2015, when Joe Sewell would be burned at the stake as some sort of witch) who produces plenty of offense for whatever position he ends up playing.

 

69. Billy McKinney, LF
Age: 21 (8/23/94) | B/T: L/L

Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205

Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR

 

McKinney belongs to perhaps the least appealing class of prospect for a global ranking: the prospect whose value is almost entirely wrapped up in the hit tool. That McKinney is here is a testament to his track record to date and widespread belief that, if nothing else, the kid can hit.

 

McKinney has a beautiful, fluid, left-handed swing, very easy to repeat, geared toward line-drive contact but without a ton of leverage in it, so he projects as a high-OBP, high-doubles guy, but his ultimate power ceiling might be south of 20 homers as a result. McKinney played center in the lower minors, but that was a pipe dream, especially since he's a below-average runner. He should settle in as an average defender in left, which will be fine given his offensive profile but limits his potential to be a star unless he starts hitting .320, which isn't out of the question given his swing and eye. A more realistic ceiling has him posting OBPs in the upper .300s, rarely striking out, getting to 15-19 homers a year at his peak, with average defense in left, while receiving mountains of praise for being a "professional hitter."

 

88. Albert Almora, OF
Age: 21 (4/16/94) | B/T: R/R

Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180

Top level: Double-A | 2015: NR

 

Almora's path to the big leagues hasn't been as easy as expected, given how polished he looked as a high school player. But he still has a considerable chance to be a major league regular thanks to his defense and some improvements in the quality of his contact.

 

Almora is a 70 defender in center with outstanding reads on balls off the bat, which makes up for his below-average running speed, and the defense will get him to the big leagues even if he doesn't hit. He boosted his stat line with a huge August at Double-A, but the real difference was that he started making better quality contact as the season went on, squaring up the ball more frequently and thus improving his BABIP and hitting for more power, mostly doubles power. He's never going to be a high walk guy and might end up a sixth- or seventh-place hitter because he won't have more than 10-12 homer power, but the huge defensive value and his high-contact, line-drive approach should make him at least a solid-average every-day player.

 

91. Dylan Cease, RHP
Age: 20 (12/28/95) | B/T: R/R

Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175

Top level: Rookie | 2015: NR

 

Cease was a potential top-10 pick in 2014 after his fastball hit 99 mph and he showed a plus curveball that spring, but he suffered a partial tear of his elbow ligament that didn't respond to treatment, requiring Tommy John surgery after he signed an overslot deal as a sixth-round pick of the Cubs that June. Cease returned this summer and was back up to 99, easier than ever with a cleaner delivery. He was just a year removed from the surgery, so he was throwing mostly fastballs and didn't fire off the curveball like he did before he got hurt, although scouts who saw it still had it as plus in the future. He has a lightning-quick arm and is a very athletic kid, so given more time between him and the knife, he should be able to throw more strikes and regain command of both pitches, although he'll have to throw his changeup more to develop it as a viable third pitch.

 

There's legit No. 2 starter upside here, and I think you can dream of more given how blank the slate is, as long as he stays on the mound for regular workloads going forward.

[Andy]

I'm curious how the Brewers and Phillies jumped from 28/25 to 5/6. 

[1060Ivy]

Didn't both teams re-stock their prospects by trading away veterans?

 

Looking at each team's Top 10 prospects according to Baseball Prospectus: Phillies picked up 5 of their top 10s and Brewers 2 of their top 10s.

 

Brewers picked up Phillips in Gomez trade with the Astros and Davies from O's for Parra.  Thought they had another deal with the Diamondbacks which provided prospects but can't recall it.

 

Phillies picked up Williams, Alfaro and Thompson in Hamels trade with Rangers and Appel in Giles trade with Astros and Lively in Byrd trade. 

[rok]

Cease is a very exciting arm. Hoping he is a fast riser up the org charts.

[funkster]

Amazing how much Torres's stock has skyrocketed.

[Andy]

Amazing how much Torres's stock has skyrocketed.

 

He was pretty highly thought of when we grabbed him as a 16 year old.  He's all of 19 now and will probably start at High A or AA.

[Andy]

Didn't both teams re-stock their prospects by trading away veterans?

 

Looking at each team's Top 10 prospects according to Baseball Prospectus: Phillies picked up 5 of their top 10s and Brewers 2 of their top 10s.

 

Brewers picked up Phillips in Gomez trade with the Astros and Davies from O's for Parra.  Thought they had another deal with the Diamondbacks which provided prospects but can't recall it.

 

Phillies picked up Williams, Alfaro and Thompson in Hamels trade with Rangers and Appel in Giles trade with Astros and Lively in Byrd trade. 

 

Either the 2-3 players they got are incredible, or the entire system is pretty thin.  Because moving up 20 spots seems like a lot for 2 players.