04-22-2010, 12:43 AM
According to Boers and Bernstein (whom I have serious issues with) they said that the best reliever in baseball last year's value is equivalent to a mediocre 3rd starter to 4th starter. So if Z is lights out as a reliever he is still only being valued as a Gorz or Silva. The replacement level pitcher for Zambrano is no one we have in the rotation.
Zambrano will always be a frustrating pitcher. He pitches to contact sometimes and pitches to K sometimes. His career BABIP against is around .270. His career whip is around 1.3. He'll walk guys, he'll give up a few hits, he'll "beat himself", but he'll also be lights out. His career quality start % is 62 (for comparison's sake, from 21 to Z's current age Halladay had a career 64% in QS.) A quality start gives a team a 75% change of winning a game. Zambrano is crazy, emotional and paid a lot. But any given day start he can be the best pitcher in baseball. You don't take a guy with that potential out to pitch a third of his usual innings.
You want your best hitters to get the most at bats in a season. Wouldn't you want your best pitchers to pitch the most innings as well?
Zambrano will always be a frustrating pitcher. He pitches to contact sometimes and pitches to K sometimes. His career BABIP against is around .270. His career whip is around 1.3. He'll walk guys, he'll give up a few hits, he'll "beat himself", but he'll also be lights out. His career quality start % is 62 (for comparison's sake, from 21 to Z's current age Halladay had a career 64% in QS.) A quality start gives a team a 75% change of winning a game. Zambrano is crazy, emotional and paid a lot. But any given day start he can be the best pitcher in baseball. You don't take a guy with that potential out to pitch a third of his usual innings.
You want your best hitters to get the most at bats in a season. Wouldn't you want your best pitchers to pitch the most innings as well?
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy