12-22-2008, 09:32 PM
<!--quoteo(post=6465:date=Dec 22 2008, 08:26 PM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Dec 22 2008, 08:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=6430:date=Dec 22 2008, 07:14 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Dec 22 2008, 07:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=6318:date=Dec 22 2008, 08:33 AM:name=Coldneck)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coldneck @ Dec 22 2008, 08:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=6100:date=Dec 20 2008, 01:17 AM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Dec 20 2008, 01:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Even if all those players have the best years they'll ever have in their lifetime, they won't make up 23 games on us. Not a chance.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Who's to say we'll win as many as we did last year?
10 reasons we might not win as many games this year
1. Dempster will remember he sucks
2. Kerry Wood is gone.
3. DeRosa will begin his decline after 3 career years
4. Rich Harden will miss the entire season with injuries
5. Z will be committed to an asylum.
6. Soriano is a year older will continue his decline
7. Fukudome will play like 2nd half Fukudome.
8. Reed will play like he did on at Toronto.
9. Derrek Lee will hit into 85 double plays and continue to decline in general
10. Theriot will remember he wasn't worth a shit in the minors
I don't think most of those things will happen, but we pretty much had everything go our way last season. Unless we upgrade our roster, I fully expect to win less games next season.
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1. Dempster never "sucked". He's not going to drop off too much. He'll be fine. I'm not expecting last year, but 15 wins is very possible.
2. Kerry Wood is gone... Okay? Gregg's going to be every bit as effective as him, Marmol an even better closer.
3. DeRosa won't decline much, if at all.
4. We'll play it safe with Harden. I'm expecting no more than 15-20 starts, not by injury, but because we want him to be 100% by October.
5. Z's won at least 13 games every year since 2003, being a part of a few very bad teams in that span.
6. Soriano only had 450 at bats last year, and isn't "declining".
7. If Fuk stinks, we just play Reed more or Hendry will make a big deadline splash like he always does. Not a major concern to me.
8. You mean the Reed that hit .319 with a .390 obp in 2006? He's a helluva lot closer to that guy than the guy that stunk for them in 2007. He cares too much, especially playing for a franchise with championship aspirations, and will keep playing at a high level especially against lefites.
9. Lee might keep declining, but he's still a very good player offensively and defensively. I think he'll be back up in the 25 homer area this year actually. He also had plenty more double play opportunities than anybody in the league, and didn't lead the league. You know who was 2nd in the league and only hit 2 less than Lee in a shitload less chances in 2004? Our very own Aramis Ramirez. I don't think the DP's will be nearly as plentiful for Lee in 08, and he hit only 8 of those 27 in the 2nd half of the season. I don't think it will be as big of a problem for him this year, he'll work on getting that elevation back in his swing.
10. Nice try. Theriot's had 2 or 3 bad months in his entire MLB career. He's a fine player, especially on the offensive end, time to accept it.
I think we'll win less games as well, probably in the 92-93 area, it doesn't mean you should seriously think the Reds are even close to a legitimate threat to us.
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Do you agree with this statement from above?
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->we pretty much had everything go our way last season.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
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Sort of. Did Lee perform as good as we hoped? Only for a couple months. Did Alf play the whole season? Nope. Did Z have a great year? Nope, a down year for him. Did Fuk come as advertised? Only for 2-3 months. At the same time, yeah, Soto was awesome but I expected him to be very good, same with Theriot. Dempster did better than expected but I also expected him to at least be better than people were predicting. DeRo also had a lot more power than we expected.
I don't know, I wasn't surprised by the season one bit. I expect a bit of a letdown this year following another awful playoffs, but we're too talented to not be around at least 90 games(barring serious injuries of course). It's not as much about us, but the rest of the division being crap.
Who's to say we'll win as many as we did last year?
10 reasons we might not win as many games this year
1. Dempster will remember he sucks
2. Kerry Wood is gone.
3. DeRosa will begin his decline after 3 career years
4. Rich Harden will miss the entire season with injuries
5. Z will be committed to an asylum.
6. Soriano is a year older will continue his decline
7. Fukudome will play like 2nd half Fukudome.
8. Reed will play like he did on at Toronto.
9. Derrek Lee will hit into 85 double plays and continue to decline in general
10. Theriot will remember he wasn't worth a shit in the minors
I don't think most of those things will happen, but we pretty much had everything go our way last season. Unless we upgrade our roster, I fully expect to win less games next season.
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1. Dempster never "sucked". He's not going to drop off too much. He'll be fine. I'm not expecting last year, but 15 wins is very possible.
2. Kerry Wood is gone... Okay? Gregg's going to be every bit as effective as him, Marmol an even better closer.
3. DeRosa won't decline much, if at all.
4. We'll play it safe with Harden. I'm expecting no more than 15-20 starts, not by injury, but because we want him to be 100% by October.
5. Z's won at least 13 games every year since 2003, being a part of a few very bad teams in that span.
6. Soriano only had 450 at bats last year, and isn't "declining".
7. If Fuk stinks, we just play Reed more or Hendry will make a big deadline splash like he always does. Not a major concern to me.
8. You mean the Reed that hit .319 with a .390 obp in 2006? He's a helluva lot closer to that guy than the guy that stunk for them in 2007. He cares too much, especially playing for a franchise with championship aspirations, and will keep playing at a high level especially against lefites.
9. Lee might keep declining, but he's still a very good player offensively and defensively. I think he'll be back up in the 25 homer area this year actually. He also had plenty more double play opportunities than anybody in the league, and didn't lead the league. You know who was 2nd in the league and only hit 2 less than Lee in a shitload less chances in 2004? Our very own Aramis Ramirez. I don't think the DP's will be nearly as plentiful for Lee in 08, and he hit only 8 of those 27 in the 2nd half of the season. I don't think it will be as big of a problem for him this year, he'll work on getting that elevation back in his swing.
10. Nice try. Theriot's had 2 or 3 bad months in his entire MLB career. He's a fine player, especially on the offensive end, time to accept it.
I think we'll win less games as well, probably in the 92-93 area, it doesn't mean you should seriously think the Reds are even close to a legitimate threat to us.
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Do you agree with this statement from above?
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->we pretty much had everything go our way last season.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Sort of. Did Lee perform as good as we hoped? Only for a couple months. Did Alf play the whole season? Nope. Did Z have a great year? Nope, a down year for him. Did Fuk come as advertised? Only for 2-3 months. At the same time, yeah, Soto was awesome but I expected him to be very good, same with Theriot. Dempster did better than expected but I also expected him to at least be better than people were predicting. DeRo also had a lot more power than we expected.
I don't know, I wasn't surprised by the season one bit. I expect a bit of a letdown this year following another awful playoffs, but we're too talented to not be around at least 90 games(barring serious injuries of course). It's not as much about us, but the rest of the division being crap.
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