02-21-2010, 05:53 PM
OPS's value is that on average, it measures production about as well most more complicated stats, and better than many traditional stats. The key word is on average. So it is going to work great on some players, adequate on others and suck at evaluating some. It is also a weighted average. So, working well for one player who gets 600 PAs makes up for a poor job on 4 guys with 150 PAs. It is going to work best on the best players, who hit in the middle of the order and who need to have both SLG and OBP. It is not as good for players at the top of the line up, where OBP is the most important, or the bottom, where OBP is less important.
Most of the value from an elite hitter, is going to be from OBP or SLG. As you move down the scale and guys make more outs and have less productive hits, a larger part of their value is going to be measured in other factors like SB, bunting, clutch hitting and productive outs.
Most of the statistical analysis validating OPS, is going to be done on players worth evaluating. That is why it appears to work so well - and it does at evaluating middle of the order hitters. For evaluating Andres Blanco, it is no less a shot in the dark than using RBI.
Most of the value from an elite hitter, is going to be from OBP or SLG. As you move down the scale and guys make more outs and have less productive hits, a larger part of their value is going to be measured in other factors like SB, bunting, clutch hitting and productive outs.
Most of the statistical analysis validating OPS, is going to be done on players worth evaluating. That is why it appears to work so well - and it does at evaluating middle of the order hitters. For evaluating Andres Blanco, it is no less a shot in the dark than using RBI.
I like you guys a lot.