12-16-2008, 08:48 PM
<!--quoteo(post=5261:date=Dec 16 2008, 06:35 PM:name=Brock)-->QUOTE (Brock @ Dec 16 2008, 06:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=5208:date=Dec 16 2008, 05:21 PM:name=Scarey)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Scarey @ Dec 16 2008, 05:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->If we were to somehow sign Adam Dunn, he's most likely going to split up Lee and Ramirez and I would assume that Lee moves to the 2 hole while Dunn occupies the 3.
As the number 3 hitter last year, Lee had 180 plate appearances with RISP. I'm going to assume that Dunn would get about the same amount of opportunities in that same situation. WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT AN INSIGNIFICANT STAT HERE! That's a hell of a lot of opportunities to drive in runs.
To have a guy that doesn't historically hit well in that situation, I'm not too thrilled. Yes, he will get on base, but why not put Theriot at the three spot if all you want from your three hitter is to walk? I mean, Theriot had a higher OBP last year then Dunn's career average, if we just want to make sure to get our 3 hitter on, I don't see any reason Theriot can't bat there and save the 10s of millions of dollars that Dunn will cost per season.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm not sure where you are getting the idea that Dunn doesn't do well with RISP.
Dunn with RISP:
2005: .248/.468/.574
2006: .221/.394/.529
2007: .241/.403/.411
2008: .241/.418/.511
With those SLG numbers (other than 2007) he isn't just walking in those situations.
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When there's a runner in scoring position, you don't need to be swinging for the fence, that's the point. Slugging percentage should be irrelevant with RISP. Sure it's nicer to get a double, triple or homer, but a simple single does the job. A lot of those times you just need a groundball to second base or a lazy flyball to centerfield. Aramis was coming out of his shoes in the previous 2 playoffs. Look at this October. How many times was Lee standing at 2nd base and we didn't get him in because Aramis was swinging for the fence, instead of shortening his swing and just taking the pitch to right field for a single?
As the number 3 hitter last year, Lee had 180 plate appearances with RISP. I'm going to assume that Dunn would get about the same amount of opportunities in that same situation. WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT AN INSIGNIFICANT STAT HERE! That's a hell of a lot of opportunities to drive in runs.
To have a guy that doesn't historically hit well in that situation, I'm not too thrilled. Yes, he will get on base, but why not put Theriot at the three spot if all you want from your three hitter is to walk? I mean, Theriot had a higher OBP last year then Dunn's career average, if we just want to make sure to get our 3 hitter on, I don't see any reason Theriot can't bat there and save the 10s of millions of dollars that Dunn will cost per season.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm not sure where you are getting the idea that Dunn doesn't do well with RISP.
Dunn with RISP:
2005: .248/.468/.574
2006: .221/.394/.529
2007: .241/.403/.411
2008: .241/.418/.511
With those SLG numbers (other than 2007) he isn't just walking in those situations.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
When there's a runner in scoring position, you don't need to be swinging for the fence, that's the point. Slugging percentage should be irrelevant with RISP. Sure it's nicer to get a double, triple or homer, but a simple single does the job. A lot of those times you just need a groundball to second base or a lazy flyball to centerfield. Aramis was coming out of his shoes in the previous 2 playoffs. Look at this October. How many times was Lee standing at 2nd base and we didn't get him in because Aramis was swinging for the fence, instead of shortening his swing and just taking the pitch to right field for a single?
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