12-16-2008, 07:21 PM
<!--quoteo(post=5175:date=Dec 16 2008, 05:02 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Dec 16 2008, 05:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->The only things that suddenly matter are his average with runners in scoring position, and strikeouts.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If we were to somehow sign Adam Dunn, he's most likely going to split up Lee and Ramirez and I would assume that Lee moves to the 2 hole while Dunn occupies the 3.
As the number 3 hitter last year, Lee had 180 plate appearances with RISP. I'm going to assume that Dunn would get about the same amount of opportunities in that same situation. WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT AN INSIGNIFICANT STAT HERE! That's a hell of a lot of opportunities to drive in runs.
To have a guy that doesn't historically hit well in that situation, I'm not too thrilled. Yes, he will get on base, but why not put Theriot at the three spot if all you want from your three hitter is to walk? I mean, Theriot had a higher OBP last year then Dunn's career average, if we just want to make sure to get our 3 hitter on, I don't see any reason Theriot can't bat there and save the 10s of millions of dollars that Dunn will cost per season.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->and for fuck's sake, give up on the strikeouts. Yes, he strikes out a lot, and yes, he will strand guys at third because of that. Do you realize that Aramis has grounded into nearly 3 times as many double plays as Dunn has? That's 2 outs for the price of one. You don't think THAT costs as many runs as striking out with a man on third with less than 2 outs does?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You're basically making two different arguments here and trying to mash them together.
1.) Strikeouts aren't that bad.
I have to disagree with this one. You don't give yourself any opportunity if you strike out. If you're swinging for contact, you can bloop a single, hit through a hole in the infield, put pressure on the defense, and heck... you can even foul it off and maybe get a good pitch to hit next time.
2.) Walking eliminates the opportunity for a double play.
I agree with that. If you get on base without putting the ball in play, there's no chance of a double play. However, how often does that come into play? Judging by your comments about RISP situations, I feel like you think RISP doesn't happen often enough to make a significant difference. However, Lee last year came close to breaking the record for GIDP with 27 compared to his 48 hits with runners in scoring position.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Strikeouts are a weakness, but they don't completely invalidate 40 home run power.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I can agree with that.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Dunn is a valuable player who has distinct weaknesses. I'm not sure I could handle him and Soriano in the same outfield and the same lineup, but for God's sake, while he is not a super star, that certainly doesn't mean he "sucks". He's beat up on the Cubs enough for me to know he can't completely suck.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I agree with all of this. I just don't see too many people that are saying he sucks.
If we were to somehow sign Adam Dunn, he's most likely going to split up Lee and Ramirez and I would assume that Lee moves to the 2 hole while Dunn occupies the 3.
As the number 3 hitter last year, Lee had 180 plate appearances with RISP. I'm going to assume that Dunn would get about the same amount of opportunities in that same situation. WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT AN INSIGNIFICANT STAT HERE! That's a hell of a lot of opportunities to drive in runs.
To have a guy that doesn't historically hit well in that situation, I'm not too thrilled. Yes, he will get on base, but why not put Theriot at the three spot if all you want from your three hitter is to walk? I mean, Theriot had a higher OBP last year then Dunn's career average, if we just want to make sure to get our 3 hitter on, I don't see any reason Theriot can't bat there and save the 10s of millions of dollars that Dunn will cost per season.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->and for fuck's sake, give up on the strikeouts. Yes, he strikes out a lot, and yes, he will strand guys at third because of that. Do you realize that Aramis has grounded into nearly 3 times as many double plays as Dunn has? That's 2 outs for the price of one. You don't think THAT costs as many runs as striking out with a man on third with less than 2 outs does?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You're basically making two different arguments here and trying to mash them together.
1.) Strikeouts aren't that bad.
I have to disagree with this one. You don't give yourself any opportunity if you strike out. If you're swinging for contact, you can bloop a single, hit through a hole in the infield, put pressure on the defense, and heck... you can even foul it off and maybe get a good pitch to hit next time.
2.) Walking eliminates the opportunity for a double play.
I agree with that. If you get on base without putting the ball in play, there's no chance of a double play. However, how often does that come into play? Judging by your comments about RISP situations, I feel like you think RISP doesn't happen often enough to make a significant difference. However, Lee last year came close to breaking the record for GIDP with 27 compared to his 48 hits with runners in scoring position.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Strikeouts are a weakness, but they don't completely invalidate 40 home run power.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I can agree with that.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Dunn is a valuable player who has distinct weaknesses. I'm not sure I could handle him and Soriano in the same outfield and the same lineup, but for God's sake, while he is not a super star, that certainly doesn't mean he "sucks". He's beat up on the Cubs enough for me to know he can't completely suck.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I agree with all of this. I just don't see too many people that are saying he sucks.