12-16-2008, 02:47 PM
<!--quoteo(post=5088:date=Dec 16 2008, 11:28 AM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Dec 16 2008, 11:28 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Adam Dunn is an example of a failure of stat analysis. The analysis is wrong, because stat people treat baseball events as if they are random (because of: 1) law of large numbers and 2) events do occur within the range of normal distribution). To them the math (OBP is the most important) trumps what they see when the watch the game.
When you watch the games, you see that how opposing teams pitch Dunn is not random. If the run on base is crucial, they try to pitch so he can't hit the ball (BB or KO). Having him on base does not matter, and if 1b was open might even help them (that will make your calculator explode). If the benefit of an out is greater than the cost of him getting a hit (even a HR) they pitch to contact (one of the more difficult tasks in pitching).
All the things that make baseball, baseball, don't show up in the numbers. No matter how many times a stat head sees the other team walk Dunn and still get out of the inning, they will say it will all even out in then end. All runs are the same, all OBP is the same and putting Dunn on base increases the expected runs for Dunn's team.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
bingo.
babe ruth, ted williams, and post steroid barry bonds would hit .360 AND walk 140 times every year. that means that when they weren't being walked, they were still getting on base. dunn, if he isn't walking, is more than likely striking out or hitting a solo home run. thats why he sucks. he can't hit.
i'm not sure my point has anything to with sipes point, but i like sipes point nevertheless.
When you watch the games, you see that how opposing teams pitch Dunn is not random. If the run on base is crucial, they try to pitch so he can't hit the ball (BB or KO). Having him on base does not matter, and if 1b was open might even help them (that will make your calculator explode). If the benefit of an out is greater than the cost of him getting a hit (even a HR) they pitch to contact (one of the more difficult tasks in pitching).
All the things that make baseball, baseball, don't show up in the numbers. No matter how many times a stat head sees the other team walk Dunn and still get out of the inning, they will say it will all even out in then end. All runs are the same, all OBP is the same and putting Dunn on base increases the expected runs for Dunn's team.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
bingo.
babe ruth, ted williams, and post steroid barry bonds would hit .360 AND walk 140 times every year. that means that when they weren't being walked, they were still getting on base. dunn, if he isn't walking, is more than likely striking out or hitting a solo home run. thats why he sucks. he can't hit.
i'm not sure my point has anything to with sipes point, but i like sipes point nevertheless.
Wang.