01-22-2010, 01:43 AM
<!--quoteo(post=76869:date=Jan 21 2010, 04:43 PM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Jan 21 2010, 04:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=76838:date=Jan 21 2010, 04:29 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jan 21 2010, 04:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=76831:date=Jan 21 2010, 02:01 PM:name=Scarey)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Scarey @ Jan 21 2010, 02:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=76827:date=Jan 21 2010, 03:21 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jan 21 2010, 03:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=76819:date=Jan 21 2010, 12:53 PM:name=The Dude)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (The Dude @ Jan 21 2010, 12:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I'd love to have Sheets. To all those that say the Grabow signing doesn't keep us from doing other things, I'd say that a few million extra is all we'd need in the budget to afford Sheets. Would you rather have a potential ace or an average lefty reliever?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
There is a very good chance that the reason we don't sign Sheets is because it's not a priority, not because we blew 3 million on Grabow. The Cubs have 4 rotation spots locked up. They have a plethora of candidates for the #5 spot. While I would love to have Sheets, he would be a luxury. And while I can't prove it, I am almost positive that the roadblock to signing him is NOT 3 million dollars.
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What's interesting though is that Hendry is planning on SIGNING a bench bat and SIGNING another reliever. I don't know how much Sheets will end up signing for and I don't know how much those two signings will cost the Cubs, but I have to think that the two relievers and bench spot could be adequately occupied by low-cost players within the organization there by leaving a cache of monies to be put towards the better part of a possible Sheets offer. And while you may feel that the Cubs may feel that Sheets over Silva/Gorzo/Samardzija is a luxury, I would be quick to point out that Grabow/Calero/Reed Johnson over Gaub/Parker/Fuld is just as much a luxury.
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no, it's not.
First of all, we KNOW Marshall and Gorzelany can start. At their worst, they can be 5th starters. And they are filling in one spot on the roster, the 5th stater spot. So spending money on Sheets would simply be spending money on a risky player who MAY be and upgrade, but we don't have any idea how much of one.
Your second scenario is putting 3 completely unproven players, covering 3 roster spots. We NEED a left handed reliever. We NEED a setup man. We NEED a fourth outfielder. To trust 3 entire spots to guys whom we have no idea if they can handle those spots, is no where near the same gamble as finding ONE guy who can take the 5th starter spot. A spot that literally has 5 or 6 candidates, at the minimum, who can fill in if the other guys falter. Gaub/Parker/Fuld MIGHT be able to handle those spots effectively, but we certainly don't have multiple backups in place in case they falter (with the possible exception of Parker).
How many times do we have to go over the fact that the left handed reliever spot COULD NOT be adequately handled by some cheap, in house option when we needed it last year? What in house option would you be comfortable inserting as our 4th outfielder? Fuld? He's our best option, and after a hot July, he has pretty much blown chunks. Who do we have after that? Colvin? Brett Jackson?
Any of the guys could help, but I think you'd have to be insane to entrust 3 different roster spots to unproven rookies, all so you can sign a 5th starter with an injury history.
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I just don't get why you seem to think using unproven players is ludicrous. Successful teams do it all the time. Look at the Yankees of last year. They had Hughes and Aceves out of the bullpen and Gardner on the bench. The 2008 Rays had Howell and Balfour in the pen and Zobrist off the bench. The 2008 Dodgers had Wade and Kuo out of the bullpen and DeWitt off the bench (and starting for a lot of the season). The 2007 Rockies had Corpas and Buchholz in the pen and Spilborghs off the bench. The 2007 Red Sox had Delcarmen and Gabbard in the bullpen and Ellsbury off the bench.
Now, these are not the same situations as the 2010 Cubs, but my basic point is they didn't sign guys to fill out the whole roster and had success. It's not crazy to rely on cheaper role players if you have high expectations for your team.
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Scarey, this is a pretty terrible argument. I could tear each of these apart (the Yankees had 200 million assigned to the other 22 guys on the team, Zobrist was in his FOURTH year in the majors, Dewitt STARTED in 2008, etc etc). Would I prove my point by showing you 15 teams from last year who had rookies at 3 positions and sucked ass? Of course not. My guess is that I could find far more examples that prove my point than you can to prove yours.
Of course starting 3 rookies COULD work. Those 3 guys COULD all compete for rookie of the year. But they probably won't. As far as your examples go, they make a better argument for MY point than yours. The Yankees and Red Sox went into those years with rookies because they knew they could trade/buy replacements if those guys sucked (as Hughes did in 2008, the FIRST time the Yankees tried to use him regularly). The 2007 Rockies only went to Spilborghs AFTER Willy Taveras sucked monkey ass. The Rays had no choice due to budget constraints. One of the Dodgers you mention was a in his 4th year (Kuo), and another had started the year before.
In short, these teams either fell back on these rookies because they had to, or knew they had a solid backup plan.
The Cubs don't have a backup plan. They can't buy someone if the rookies don't work out. And you are suggesting they should allocate THREE spots to unproven guys with no real backup. I don't think that's a sound idea. 5th starters, on the other hand, are the epitome of easily replaceable talent. If they want to give it to Jay Jackson, more power to them. If he fucks up, we have any number of backup plans. That seems a more reasonable gamble.
There is a very good chance that the reason we don't sign Sheets is because it's not a priority, not because we blew 3 million on Grabow. The Cubs have 4 rotation spots locked up. They have a plethora of candidates for the #5 spot. While I would love to have Sheets, he would be a luxury. And while I can't prove it, I am almost positive that the roadblock to signing him is NOT 3 million dollars.
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What's interesting though is that Hendry is planning on SIGNING a bench bat and SIGNING another reliever. I don't know how much Sheets will end up signing for and I don't know how much those two signings will cost the Cubs, but I have to think that the two relievers and bench spot could be adequately occupied by low-cost players within the organization there by leaving a cache of monies to be put towards the better part of a possible Sheets offer. And while you may feel that the Cubs may feel that Sheets over Silva/Gorzo/Samardzija is a luxury, I would be quick to point out that Grabow/Calero/Reed Johnson over Gaub/Parker/Fuld is just as much a luxury.
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no, it's not.
First of all, we KNOW Marshall and Gorzelany can start. At their worst, they can be 5th starters. And they are filling in one spot on the roster, the 5th stater spot. So spending money on Sheets would simply be spending money on a risky player who MAY be and upgrade, but we don't have any idea how much of one.
Your second scenario is putting 3 completely unproven players, covering 3 roster spots. We NEED a left handed reliever. We NEED a setup man. We NEED a fourth outfielder. To trust 3 entire spots to guys whom we have no idea if they can handle those spots, is no where near the same gamble as finding ONE guy who can take the 5th starter spot. A spot that literally has 5 or 6 candidates, at the minimum, who can fill in if the other guys falter. Gaub/Parker/Fuld MIGHT be able to handle those spots effectively, but we certainly don't have multiple backups in place in case they falter (with the possible exception of Parker).
How many times do we have to go over the fact that the left handed reliever spot COULD NOT be adequately handled by some cheap, in house option when we needed it last year? What in house option would you be comfortable inserting as our 4th outfielder? Fuld? He's our best option, and after a hot July, he has pretty much blown chunks. Who do we have after that? Colvin? Brett Jackson?
Any of the guys could help, but I think you'd have to be insane to entrust 3 different roster spots to unproven rookies, all so you can sign a 5th starter with an injury history.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I just don't get why you seem to think using unproven players is ludicrous. Successful teams do it all the time. Look at the Yankees of last year. They had Hughes and Aceves out of the bullpen and Gardner on the bench. The 2008 Rays had Howell and Balfour in the pen and Zobrist off the bench. The 2008 Dodgers had Wade and Kuo out of the bullpen and DeWitt off the bench (and starting for a lot of the season). The 2007 Rockies had Corpas and Buchholz in the pen and Spilborghs off the bench. The 2007 Red Sox had Delcarmen and Gabbard in the bullpen and Ellsbury off the bench.
Now, these are not the same situations as the 2010 Cubs, but my basic point is they didn't sign guys to fill out the whole roster and had success. It's not crazy to rely on cheaper role players if you have high expectations for your team.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Scarey, this is a pretty terrible argument. I could tear each of these apart (the Yankees had 200 million assigned to the other 22 guys on the team, Zobrist was in his FOURTH year in the majors, Dewitt STARTED in 2008, etc etc). Would I prove my point by showing you 15 teams from last year who had rookies at 3 positions and sucked ass? Of course not. My guess is that I could find far more examples that prove my point than you can to prove yours.
Of course starting 3 rookies COULD work. Those 3 guys COULD all compete for rookie of the year. But they probably won't. As far as your examples go, they make a better argument for MY point than yours. The Yankees and Red Sox went into those years with rookies because they knew they could trade/buy replacements if those guys sucked (as Hughes did in 2008, the FIRST time the Yankees tried to use him regularly). The 2007 Rockies only went to Spilborghs AFTER Willy Taveras sucked monkey ass. The Rays had no choice due to budget constraints. One of the Dodgers you mention was a in his 4th year (Kuo), and another had started the year before.
In short, these teams either fell back on these rookies because they had to, or knew they had a solid backup plan.
The Cubs don't have a backup plan. They can't buy someone if the rookies don't work out. And you are suggesting they should allocate THREE spots to unproven guys with no real backup. I don't think that's a sound idea. 5th starters, on the other hand, are the epitome of easily replaceable talent. If they want to give it to Jay Jackson, more power to them. If he fucks up, we have any number of backup plans. That seems a more reasonable gamble.
I wish that I believed in Fate. I wish I didn't sleep so late. I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders.