Byrd

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=73619:date=Dec 31 2009, 01:57 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 31 2009, 01:57 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=73617:date=Dec 31 2009, 01:54 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Dec 31 2009, 01:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=73614:date=Dec 31 2009, 01:47 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 31 2009, 01:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Also, you're paying more for a player as his skills (usually) decline. This makes them hard to unload, if necessary.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


But if that is the case, it still doesn't hurt. Let's take Byrd for example. Let's say he completely sucks ass in 2012. The Cubs can pay 1.5 million dollars to deal him ( 1.5 million dollars in 2012 dollars, I might add), and they would be no worse off whatsoever than if they were paying him 5 million a year instead.

Even if you are PLANNING to ditch a guy in his 3rd year, backloading would still take a bite out of that.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You're assuming the market for talent is always on a steady incline.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


No, it's got nothing to do with the market for talent. There is simply NO upside to paying the extra 1.5 million dollars in Byrd's 2012 contract year in 2011 or 2010. None. WHATEVER the market is for him in 2012, we have 1.5 million dollars to put down in a deal for him that we would not have if we had paid him that 1.5 million in 2010 or 11.


Unless I am misunderstanding you. If you are instead saying that it's possible contracts will be down across the board in 2012, then you sort of have a point. Because that is possible. But it's far more likely that salaries (due to inflation at the very least) will be up in 2012. I will grant that backloading is a bad idea if the value of the dollar goes down, or if player revenues go down, but both of those, while possible, are bad bets.