12-22-2009, 09:46 AM
Keith Law's opinion on the top FA OFers. I think I'd rather make due with what we have than spend a fortune on someone not named Holliday or Bay (and that's just not going to happen). We should save some money and look to acquire a better option before the trade deadline.
<b>Matt Holliday</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Holliday's stint in St. Louis didn't end on a good note, and if he leaves for more lucrative pastures, his legacy in Missouri might revolve around the missed catch that cost the Cardinals a win in the NLDS. Before that, however, he had re-established his place as a top hitter after reverting to his 2008 setup at the plate and getting away from American League pitching. AL hurlers found what the Red Sox had discovered in 2007 -- you can beat Holliday with good velocity, and he'll chase a lot of sliders, although he can crush a bad slider as well as any power hitter. He's moderately patient with good coverage on the outer half and, of course, has plus raw power, particularly to left-center. He's 16 months younger than Jason Bay and a better left fielder, although he looks extremely awkward out there and memories of his NLDS flub will haunt any general managers thinking of signing him, but he and Bay are the only impact bats on the market and will be paid accordingly.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Jason Bay</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Bay is the best overall hitter on the market this winter, with more offensive potential than Matt Holliday but less defensive value. Bay is extremely patient and has shown he can hit American League pitching, including good fastballs; he's actually much worse against changeups. He has plus pull power and could have 40-homer potential in a park friendly to right-handed power hitters, such as Minute Maid. Bay is not a good defensive left fielder, although Fenway Park has made many left fielders look worse than they actually are, both for scouts and in defensive metrics. I don't believe Bay is worst-in-the-majors or unplayable in left; he's below average, but does enough with his bat to compensate. Hitters with strong secondary skills can provide value even in years in which their batting averages drop because of bad luck on balls in play, and Bay's patience and power make him a very good bet to live up to expectations.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Johnny Damon</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Damon might be the biggest beneficiary of the fact that the Yankees' new stadium is a good home run park; his apparent performance boost was largely a product of the new environment, as Damon hit 17 of his career-best 24 home runs at home. He'll play next year at 36, and age and a neutral park next year will lead to a big drop in his numbers. His swing is long and he bails out on anything down, away, or down and away. His reads in left field are poor, and his arm is a 35 on a good day. He's probably a .275/.355/.440 hitter -- if he doesn't have a sudden age-related drop-off -- who'll cost a team several runs on defense, and that's not worth anything close to what he earned from the Yankees on his last contract.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Marlon Byrd</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Byrd is a classic fourth outfielder -- he doesn't play center field well enough to handle it on an everyday basis, but doesn't have quite the bat to play every day in a corner. His offensive line in 2008 was starter-worthy in a corner, but Byrd regressed in 2009; 25 regular corner outfielders beat his unadjusted .808 OPS. Plus, there's reason to doubt even that number for Byrd. Playing two years in a good hitters' park in Texas, Byrd has done much of his damage at home, posting a .290/.339/.415 line in 516 road PA over the past two years. A corner outfielder with a sub-800 OPS (that's light on OBP) who plays average to slightly above-average defense isn't a starter for a contending club.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Xavier Nady</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Nady had a career year in 2008, buoyed by an improvement in his ability to hit right-handed pitching that started the year before. He blew out his elbow right after 2009 began, missing the opportunity to take advantage of homer-friendly Yankee Stadium in his walk year, although playing time may have been an issue in the crowded New York lineup. He's a potential value play this winter due to the injury. Realistically, though, his upside is that of an average defensive corner outfielder who'll hit for average power and some batting average but won't have a great OBP, and he may not have much of a throwing arm until later in the year or 2011.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Vladimir Guererro</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Vlad is no longer the Impaler after leg and back injuries have wiped out his speed and sapped his power to the point where pitchers are increasingly emboldened in the way they pitch to him. He still has good bat control but does less with pitches when he makes contact, so pitchers are attacking him more in the zone than they ever did before, with more success. He can still hit a fastball and his power is only reduced, not gone, but a full year of DH duty didn't keep him healthy or help him recover his past level of performance. Several AL teams had worse DH options than Vlad in 2009, so there will be demand for him, but don't expect a return to his glory days.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Mark DeRosa</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->DeRosa is now recovering from surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist, an injury that contributed to an incredibly disappointing season for him after a career year in 2008. When fully healthy, he's a useful utility player who can play four or five positions, but none of them really well enough to handle every day. The average power he developed in Texas has stayed with him through three more teams, none in parks as hitter-friendly as the Rangers' stadium, and prior to 2009 he'd shown increased patience. He has a strong reputation for intangibles, which should keep his market fairly strong even with the injury and down year and may even have him land a starter's salary, but if a team can grab him at a reserve's salary there's value to be had here.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Randy Winn</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Winn had a bad year in 2009 and looked bad doing it, hitting a lot of soft line drives and diving into the ball at the plate, but prior to this he'd had two respectable years with OBPs of .353 and .363, and I'd be willing to take a one-year flier on him to see if that hitter is still in there. Of course, I'd be willing to take that flier because Winn has become a very solid defensive left fielder; he could play right, but his arm is below-average and his throwing motion is going to lead to some unflattering descriptions on pro scouting reports. He's still an above-average runner, and has been caught just seven times in 63 stolen-base attempts in the last three years, so we're not looking at a complete erosion of skills. The bat might be gone, but there's enough still there to make him valuable even if he only posts a .750 OPS.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Matt Holliday</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Holliday's stint in St. Louis didn't end on a good note, and if he leaves for more lucrative pastures, his legacy in Missouri might revolve around the missed catch that cost the Cardinals a win in the NLDS. Before that, however, he had re-established his place as a top hitter after reverting to his 2008 setup at the plate and getting away from American League pitching. AL hurlers found what the Red Sox had discovered in 2007 -- you can beat Holliday with good velocity, and he'll chase a lot of sliders, although he can crush a bad slider as well as any power hitter. He's moderately patient with good coverage on the outer half and, of course, has plus raw power, particularly to left-center. He's 16 months younger than Jason Bay and a better left fielder, although he looks extremely awkward out there and memories of his NLDS flub will haunt any general managers thinking of signing him, but he and Bay are the only impact bats on the market and will be paid accordingly.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Jason Bay</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Bay is the best overall hitter on the market this winter, with more offensive potential than Matt Holliday but less defensive value. Bay is extremely patient and has shown he can hit American League pitching, including good fastballs; he's actually much worse against changeups. He has plus pull power and could have 40-homer potential in a park friendly to right-handed power hitters, such as Minute Maid. Bay is not a good defensive left fielder, although Fenway Park has made many left fielders look worse than they actually are, both for scouts and in defensive metrics. I don't believe Bay is worst-in-the-majors or unplayable in left; he's below average, but does enough with his bat to compensate. Hitters with strong secondary skills can provide value even in years in which their batting averages drop because of bad luck on balls in play, and Bay's patience and power make him a very good bet to live up to expectations.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Johnny Damon</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Damon might be the biggest beneficiary of the fact that the Yankees' new stadium is a good home run park; his apparent performance boost was largely a product of the new environment, as Damon hit 17 of his career-best 24 home runs at home. He'll play next year at 36, and age and a neutral park next year will lead to a big drop in his numbers. His swing is long and he bails out on anything down, away, or down and away. His reads in left field are poor, and his arm is a 35 on a good day. He's probably a .275/.355/.440 hitter -- if he doesn't have a sudden age-related drop-off -- who'll cost a team several runs on defense, and that's not worth anything close to what he earned from the Yankees on his last contract.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Marlon Byrd</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Byrd is a classic fourth outfielder -- he doesn't play center field well enough to handle it on an everyday basis, but doesn't have quite the bat to play every day in a corner. His offensive line in 2008 was starter-worthy in a corner, but Byrd regressed in 2009; 25 regular corner outfielders beat his unadjusted .808 OPS. Plus, there's reason to doubt even that number for Byrd. Playing two years in a good hitters' park in Texas, Byrd has done much of his damage at home, posting a .290/.339/.415 line in 516 road PA over the past two years. A corner outfielder with a sub-800 OPS (that's light on OBP) who plays average to slightly above-average defense isn't a starter for a contending club.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Xavier Nady</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Nady had a career year in 2008, buoyed by an improvement in his ability to hit right-handed pitching that started the year before. He blew out his elbow right after 2009 began, missing the opportunity to take advantage of homer-friendly Yankee Stadium in his walk year, although playing time may have been an issue in the crowded New York lineup. He's a potential value play this winter due to the injury. Realistically, though, his upside is that of an average defensive corner outfielder who'll hit for average power and some batting average but won't have a great OBP, and he may not have much of a throwing arm until later in the year or 2011.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Vladimir Guererro</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Vlad is no longer the Impaler after leg and back injuries have wiped out his speed and sapped his power to the point where pitchers are increasingly emboldened in the way they pitch to him. He still has good bat control but does less with pitches when he makes contact, so pitchers are attacking him more in the zone than they ever did before, with more success. He can still hit a fastball and his power is only reduced, not gone, but a full year of DH duty didn't keep him healthy or help him recover his past level of performance. Several AL teams had worse DH options than Vlad in 2009, so there will be demand for him, but don't expect a return to his glory days.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Mark DeRosa</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->DeRosa is now recovering from surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist, an injury that contributed to an incredibly disappointing season for him after a career year in 2008. When fully healthy, he's a useful utility player who can play four or five positions, but none of them really well enough to handle every day. The average power he developed in Texas has stayed with him through three more teams, none in parks as hitter-friendly as the Rangers' stadium, and prior to 2009 he'd shown increased patience. He has a strong reputation for intangibles, which should keep his market fairly strong even with the injury and down year and may even have him land a starter's salary, but if a team can grab him at a reserve's salary there's value to be had here.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Randy Winn</b>
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Winn had a bad year in 2009 and looked bad doing it, hitting a lot of soft line drives and diving into the ball at the plate, but prior to this he'd had two respectable years with OBPs of .353 and .363, and I'd be willing to take a one-year flier on him to see if that hitter is still in there. Of course, I'd be willing to take that flier because Winn has become a very solid defensive left fielder; he could play right, but his arm is below-average and his throwing motion is going to lead to some unflattering descriptions on pro scouting reports. He's still an above-average runner, and has been caught just seven times in 63 stolen-base attempts in the last three years, so we're not looking at a complete erosion of skills. The bat might be gone, but there's enough still there to make him valuable even if he only posts a .750 OPS.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->