10-05-2009, 09:47 PM
<!--quoteo(post=65372:date=Oct 5 2009, 12:54 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Oct 5 2009, 12:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=65361:date=Oct 5 2009, 01:26 PM:name=cherp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cherp @ Oct 5 2009, 01:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't hate stats - or the use of stats. What I hate is the misuse and abuse of statistics by people who don't understand them, and don't understand the context that should wrap around the stats.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think Theo understands the context. In my mind, the goal is to win ballgames.
That's what Theo's team does.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I guess, what I have been saying, is that most of the analysis of baseball stats is weak, and the conclusions are wrong. And to add insult to Hendry's injury, I am not sure Theo knows what he is doing.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->the single most important thing you can do in baseball as an offensive player. And that’s NOT MAKE OUTS.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It is hard to imagine someone watching baseball, let alone being involved in it, and making that statement. What makes baseball, baseball is that you have people playing a season of games made up of 9 innings, each team gets 3 outs per inning. Most of the time, the result of an at bat is an out. Each team uses it hits, walks and outs to try to score more runs than the other team.
Each AB is a different situation and its result is not random (this is one of the big statistical mistakes that makes much of the analysis flawed). The pitcher will pitch differently, depending on the situation and the results he wants. This is what makes baseball, baseball. There are so many different situations and different results that have different values. Sometimes a walk is as good as a hit, sometimes a walk is worse than a productive out.
It could be quantified. Somebody could look at every AB, and determine the value of every possible result and score the actual result. OPS and RBI are good stats, all things being equal. For RBI, you assume, same place in the lineup for a teams that score about the same amount of run. For OPS you are assuming that over a season each hitter will face the same situations.
All things are not equal. Sometimes a better hitter will have fewer RBI, sometimes a guy with a higher OPS will be less productive. Also, most stats we use, ignore the most common result of all - the out.
I think Theo understands the context. In my mind, the goal is to win ballgames.
That's what Theo's team does.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I guess, what I have been saying, is that most of the analysis of baseball stats is weak, and the conclusions are wrong. And to add insult to Hendry's injury, I am not sure Theo knows what he is doing.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->the single most important thing you can do in baseball as an offensive player. And that’s NOT MAKE OUTS.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It is hard to imagine someone watching baseball, let alone being involved in it, and making that statement. What makes baseball, baseball is that you have people playing a season of games made up of 9 innings, each team gets 3 outs per inning. Most of the time, the result of an at bat is an out. Each team uses it hits, walks and outs to try to score more runs than the other team.
Each AB is a different situation and its result is not random (this is one of the big statistical mistakes that makes much of the analysis flawed). The pitcher will pitch differently, depending on the situation and the results he wants. This is what makes baseball, baseball. There are so many different situations and different results that have different values. Sometimes a walk is as good as a hit, sometimes a walk is worse than a productive out.
It could be quantified. Somebody could look at every AB, and determine the value of every possible result and score the actual result. OPS and RBI are good stats, all things being equal. For RBI, you assume, same place in the lineup for a teams that score about the same amount of run. For OPS you are assuming that over a season each hitter will face the same situations.
All things are not equal. Sometimes a better hitter will have fewer RBI, sometimes a guy with a higher OPS will be less productive. Also, most stats we use, ignore the most common result of all - the out.
I like you guys a lot.