10-05-2009, 03:02 PM
<!--quoteo(post=65374:date=Oct 5 2009, 02:58 PM:name=Andy)-->QUOTE (Andy @ Oct 5 2009, 02:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=65370:date=Oct 5 2009, 01:51 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Oct 5 2009, 01:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=65352:date=Oct 5 2009, 12:55 PM:name=1060Ivy)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (1060Ivy @ Oct 5 2009, 12:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Here some steps that a Cubs GM would probably have to work through in order or importance.
A) Find out what your budget parameters for 2010 and expectations for 2011 and 2012.
B) Move Bradley - Determine your outfield situation, still looking for a dependable, middle of the order hitter
C) Determine starting pitching situation
D) Move Miles - Determine infield situation
E) Trade Hoffpauir or Fox - Rework bench
F) Re-examine the bullpen - Get a dependable lefty sometime before July 2010
<b>Overall, what the Cubs sorely lacked in 2009 was a consistent RBI producer. The team scored almost less a run a game less in 2009 than 2008. Cubs scored 707 runs in 2009 vs 855 in 2008. The OBP decreased from 354 to 332 from 2009 to 2008 which tells me that the team could still get on base at a near acceptable level - same as the White Sox and Phillies in 2008 both of which scored at or near 800 runs - but scoring 148 runs less than the previous year is appalling. </b>
You can bitch about Gregg and the bullpen blowing saves but when it came down to it, the Cubs just couldn't score runs in 2009.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ivy, I liked many of those moves.
But I do have to point out a huge Logic Fail in your closing paragraph.
When your team OBP drops 22 points, that is a GIGANTIC drop. THAT is the reason we scored 148 runs less. That is the reason. There is no such thing as "an RBI producer." Guys who do produce RBI's are simply guys who can hit well, and come up to bat <b>with men on base.</b>
In 2005, Derrek Lee had one of the greatest seasons of all-time. Check out his numbers against Pujols' numbers that year (Pujols was MVP): they're equal or better in every category EXCEPT RBI. Batting before Lee for most of that year? The pitcher, Corey Patterson, and Neifi Perez. And there is your explanation.
The White Sox and Phillies play their games in the #1 HR parks (or near #1 every season) in their respective leagues, so they get a ton of runs from cheap, warning track-calibre homers.
The Cubs need guys who can get on base. .332 is NOT an acceptable OBP.
End of rant.
<!--coloro:#4169e1--><!--/coloro--><!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->And so when Theo — in a clear effort to steer the conversation toward a point he wanted to make — said that J.D. Drew was second among everyday American League outfielders in OPS (behind only Boston's Jason Bay), I thought: "Hmm, where is this going?"
As it turned out, it was going to Theo Epstein explaining why RBIs are no way to evaluate baseball players.
"Sometimes you get stuck in the world of evaluating players through home runs and RBIs. And it's not the way that I think most clubs do it these days. And if you look at underlying performance of a lot of our guys, they bring more to the table than just the counting stats. And J.D.'s certainly having another good year for us. He's up around a .900 OPS right now, and he's playing really good defense in right field, he deserves an awful lot of credit for that, he's been pretty darned good for the three years that he's been here if you look at the underlying performance."
The radio guys here protest a little … they point out that while Drew's OPS is usually good, they aren't sure that it has led to PRODUCTION — namely runs scored and RBIs. And this is when Theo really takes over. I bold out a few of my favorite thoughts in this wonderful little lesson:
"That's not true. With RBIs, yes. Based on his skill set, he's always going to have underwhelming RBI totals. I couldn't care less. When you're putting together a winning team, that honestly doesn't matter. When you have a player who takes a ton of walks, who doesn't put the ball in play at an above average rate, and is a certain type of hitter, he's not going to drive in a lot of runs. Runs scored, you couldn't be more wrong. If you look at a rate basis, J.D. scores a ton of runs.
"And the reason he scores a ton of runs is because he does the single most important thing you can do in baseball as an offensive player. And that's NOT MAKE OUTS. He doesn't make outs. He's always among our team leaders in on-base percentage, usually among the league leaders in on-base percentage. And he's a really good base runner. So when he doesn't make outs, and he gets himself on base, he scores runs — and he has some good hitters hitting behind him. Look at his runs scored on a rate basis with the Red Sox or throughout his career. It's outstanding.
"You guys can talk about RBIs if you want, I just … we ignore them in the front office … and I think we've built some pretty good offensive clubs. If you want to talk about RBIs at all, talk about it as a percentage of opportunity but it's just simply not a way or something we use to evaluate offensive players."<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--><!--colorc-->
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The SS argument is that Theriot had a better OBP than any Free Agent SS. Freddy Sanchez would be interesting at 2B if the Giants don't keep him.
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I would be just fine with Theriot playing 2B, but he just doesn't have the range to play SS.
A) Find out what your budget parameters for 2010 and expectations for 2011 and 2012.
B) Move Bradley - Determine your outfield situation, still looking for a dependable, middle of the order hitter
C) Determine starting pitching situation
D) Move Miles - Determine infield situation
E) Trade Hoffpauir or Fox - Rework bench
F) Re-examine the bullpen - Get a dependable lefty sometime before July 2010
<b>Overall, what the Cubs sorely lacked in 2009 was a consistent RBI producer. The team scored almost less a run a game less in 2009 than 2008. Cubs scored 707 runs in 2009 vs 855 in 2008. The OBP decreased from 354 to 332 from 2009 to 2008 which tells me that the team could still get on base at a near acceptable level - same as the White Sox and Phillies in 2008 both of which scored at or near 800 runs - but scoring 148 runs less than the previous year is appalling. </b>
You can bitch about Gregg and the bullpen blowing saves but when it came down to it, the Cubs just couldn't score runs in 2009.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ivy, I liked many of those moves.
But I do have to point out a huge Logic Fail in your closing paragraph.
When your team OBP drops 22 points, that is a GIGANTIC drop. THAT is the reason we scored 148 runs less. That is the reason. There is no such thing as "an RBI producer." Guys who do produce RBI's are simply guys who can hit well, and come up to bat <b>with men on base.</b>
In 2005, Derrek Lee had one of the greatest seasons of all-time. Check out his numbers against Pujols' numbers that year (Pujols was MVP): they're equal or better in every category EXCEPT RBI. Batting before Lee for most of that year? The pitcher, Corey Patterson, and Neifi Perez. And there is your explanation.
The White Sox and Phillies play their games in the #1 HR parks (or near #1 every season) in their respective leagues, so they get a ton of runs from cheap, warning track-calibre homers.
The Cubs need guys who can get on base. .332 is NOT an acceptable OBP.
End of rant.
<!--coloro:#4169e1--><!--/coloro--><!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->And so when Theo — in a clear effort to steer the conversation toward a point he wanted to make — said that J.D. Drew was second among everyday American League outfielders in OPS (behind only Boston's Jason Bay), I thought: "Hmm, where is this going?"
As it turned out, it was going to Theo Epstein explaining why RBIs are no way to evaluate baseball players.
"Sometimes you get stuck in the world of evaluating players through home runs and RBIs. And it's not the way that I think most clubs do it these days. And if you look at underlying performance of a lot of our guys, they bring more to the table than just the counting stats. And J.D.'s certainly having another good year for us. He's up around a .900 OPS right now, and he's playing really good defense in right field, he deserves an awful lot of credit for that, he's been pretty darned good for the three years that he's been here if you look at the underlying performance."
The radio guys here protest a little … they point out that while Drew's OPS is usually good, they aren't sure that it has led to PRODUCTION — namely runs scored and RBIs. And this is when Theo really takes over. I bold out a few of my favorite thoughts in this wonderful little lesson:
"That's not true. With RBIs, yes. Based on his skill set, he's always going to have underwhelming RBI totals. I couldn't care less. When you're putting together a winning team, that honestly doesn't matter. When you have a player who takes a ton of walks, who doesn't put the ball in play at an above average rate, and is a certain type of hitter, he's not going to drive in a lot of runs. Runs scored, you couldn't be more wrong. If you look at a rate basis, J.D. scores a ton of runs.
"And the reason he scores a ton of runs is because he does the single most important thing you can do in baseball as an offensive player. And that's NOT MAKE OUTS. He doesn't make outs. He's always among our team leaders in on-base percentage, usually among the league leaders in on-base percentage. And he's a really good base runner. So when he doesn't make outs, and he gets himself on base, he scores runs — and he has some good hitters hitting behind him. Look at his runs scored on a rate basis with the Red Sox or throughout his career. It's outstanding.
"You guys can talk about RBIs if you want, I just … we ignore them in the front office … and I think we've built some pretty good offensive clubs. If you want to talk about RBIs at all, talk about it as a percentage of opportunity but it's just simply not a way or something we use to evaluate offensive players."<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--><!--colorc-->
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The SS argument is that Theriot had a better OBP than any Free Agent SS. Freddy Sanchez would be interesting at 2B if the Giants don't keep him.
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I would be just fine with Theriot playing 2B, but he just doesn't have the range to play SS.