10-02-2009, 12:05 PM
The reason for the popularity of Moneyball and all the advanced stats, is that the sell the fantasy that a regular guy can know just as much or more about baseball than MLB managers, GMs, Scouts etc.
Most of the conclusions in Moneyball and most of the advanced stats do not stand up to real scrutiny. The problem is, that when a guy with the credentials of Joe Morgan (HOF, living greek god of walks) is based for questioning them, the rest of the media gets the message.
Guys have been writing that same article for years, and every time it is eaten up. The new stats are now a big industry like (but probably not as deadly) cigarettes. For years, studies should no danger. Finally someone decided to put a stop to it, and did a study that showed they caused cancer. For now, nobody wants to cook the golden goose.
For example
Statistically, OPS has no merit. As a number, it has some uses (like RBI or HR), but it is not inherently better than some counting stat because it is an advanced statistic. OPS does a good job of showing the value of a 3rd/4th/5th hitter. As tom pointed out, it is kind of worthless for a leadoff hitter.
Most of the conclusions in Moneyball and most of the advanced stats do not stand up to real scrutiny. The problem is, that when a guy with the credentials of Joe Morgan (HOF, living greek god of walks) is based for questioning them, the rest of the media gets the message.
Guys have been writing that same article for years, and every time it is eaten up. The new stats are now a big industry like (but probably not as deadly) cigarettes. For years, studies should no danger. Finally someone decided to put a stop to it, and did a study that showed they caused cancer. For now, nobody wants to cook the golden goose.
For example
Statistically, OPS has no merit. As a number, it has some uses (like RBI or HR), but it is not inherently better than some counting stat because it is an advanced statistic. OPS does a good job of showing the value of a 3rd/4th/5th hitter. As tom pointed out, it is kind of worthless for a leadoff hitter.
I like you guys a lot.