09-30-2009, 03:50 PM
FWIW, I've been a big fan of the <!--coloro:#0000FF--><!--/coloro-->plus/minus system for evaluating defense<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->. It beats the hell out of fielding percentage.
Still, it has some <!--coloro:#FF0000--><!--/coloro-->obvious flaws<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->. What if a routine ball is hit to a shortstop, but he bobbles it, then recovers and makes a quick throw, and the runner is out by a whisker? But, what if the runner is Ryan Howard? Then it's clear that at average-speed runner would have beat out the throw, and the SS would have made an error.
Is that a zero, or a minus?
What if, in the same situation, after the bobble, the SS makes a spectacular recovery and throw, but the runner is Ichiro or Juan Pierre, and he beats the throw by an inch...90% of the time, the shortstop's great athletic move would have nailed the runner, but in this case, a lightning-fast runner beats the throw. Is that a plus or minus, or zero?
How about this: a catchable ball that the RFer (let's call him Adam Dunn) slightly misplays, so it goes over his head? Yeah, he probably gets a minus, but it's a <i>2-base</i> error (if it's even charged as an error), so it's obviously worse for the team than the SS mis-play in the paragraph I described above.
Now, what if he misses the cut-off man on his throw, and the runner takes third base? Cut-off men are missed all the time, and I've never seen it charged as an error. Still, because of the RFers' lackluster play, a probable out is turned into a <i>triple</i>! Does he get one minus, 2 minuses, three?
I wonder how they quantify this kind of stuff. It seems like there are a few bugs in the system.
<!--/colorc-->. It beats the hell out of fielding percentage.
Still, it has some <!--coloro:#FF0000--><!--/coloro-->obvious flaws<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->. What if a routine ball is hit to a shortstop, but he bobbles it, then recovers and makes a quick throw, and the runner is out by a whisker? But, what if the runner is Ryan Howard? Then it's clear that at average-speed runner would have beat out the throw, and the SS would have made an error.
Is that a zero, or a minus?
What if, in the same situation, after the bobble, the SS makes a spectacular recovery and throw, but the runner is Ichiro or Juan Pierre, and he beats the throw by an inch...90% of the time, the shortstop's great athletic move would have nailed the runner, but in this case, a lightning-fast runner beats the throw. Is that a plus or minus, or zero?
How about this: a catchable ball that the RFer (let's call him Adam Dunn) slightly misplays, so it goes over his head? Yeah, he probably gets a minus, but it's a <i>2-base</i> error (if it's even charged as an error), so it's obviously worse for the team than the SS mis-play in the paragraph I described above.
Now, what if he misses the cut-off man on his throw, and the runner takes third base? Cut-off men are missed all the time, and I've never seen it charged as an error. Still, because of the RFers' lackluster play, a probable out is turned into a <i>triple</i>! Does he get one minus, 2 minuses, three?
I wonder how they quantify this kind of stuff. It seems like there are a few bugs in the system.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance