08-02-2009, 04:41 PM
This should have it's own thread, but I'm not sure if someone had posted it before. Anyway, it's a fascinating read:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->BP Daily: Not taking care of their Cubs
Concerns about drafting and development are hampering the North Siders
By Kevin Goldstein
Baseball Prospectus
At first glance, the Chicago Cubs should have been an obvious pursuer of Roy Halladay. Selected by most to run away with the National League Central this season, they instead have been treading water. Halladay could be the difference for any team in that division, but the dark cloud hanging over the Cubs' ownership situation and a current owner spending significant time in bankruptcy court likely prevent them from taking on the Toronto Blue Jays ace's contract.
Even if everything were hunky-dory when it came to ownership, the failure of the organization in the middle years of this decade would keep the team out of contention in trade talks anyway, as the Cubs have done little to help themselves through scouting and player development.
The Draft: Mistakes with big picks and writing big checks
The Cubs' farm system is poor, especially at the upper levels. That's because from 2003 through '06, the organization had some of the worst drafts around. A snapshot:
2003: With the sixth overall selection in the draft, the Cubs took toolsy high school outfielder Ryan Harvey, who now is with Colorado's Double-A team after never progressing as expected. Nobody questioned the pick at the time; it's just one of those that don't work out. Or maybe there is some fault here, but we'll get back to that in a bit. The only big leaguer they landed in the first five rounds is Jake Fox, who has become a nice bench bat, and they made a nice selection in the sixth round with lefty Sean Marshall. The big story here, though? The three players selected after Harvey were Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm and John Danks.
2004: With no first-round pick, the Cubs used their second-round selection on Notre Dame righty Grant Johnson, and they gave him first-round money ($1.26 million) despite the fact that most teams had him as only a second-round talent to begin with. Rarely healthy, Johnson had a 4.53 ERA in the minors and now is pitching in the independent leagues. The rest of the draft was just as big a failure, with no players making a significant impact in the big leagues, although 12th-round pick Sean Gallagher was used to acquire Rich Harden last summer.
2005: An even bigger disaster than 2004, as not a single player selected in 2005 has played in the big leagues for the Cubs -- nor will they. Like the Harvey pick two years before, first-round pick Mark Pawelek seemed like a sound selection at the time, but injuries and a lack of effort saw him released this past spring after he had made only two appearances in full-season leagues.
2006: This could be the most questionable year of the bunch for the Cubbies. They lacked picks in the second, third and fourth rounds; in the first round, they went with Tyler Colvin at 13th overall as a bit of a signability selection. In the fifth, they threw all their eggs in one basket by taking Notre Dame righty Jeff Samardzija. To take Samardzija was one thing, but to smash all draft records by handing him a $10 million package remains a puzzling move. Yes, he needed to be bought away from pursuing an NFL career, but as an athletic and raw power righty, he was no more than a late-first-round player on pure talent, and the premium turned into eight times that. Three years later, he remains an unpolished product who shows flashes of ability but has never consistently dominated at any level. As for Colvin, his issues with plate discipline have him stagnating at Double-A. And the rest of the draft? It has produced zero big leaguers and only a pair of fringy-at-best prospects in catcher Steve Clevenger and righty Chris Huseby, who also received a significantly over-slot first-round bonus and, interestingly enough, shares an agent with Samardzija.
Player Development: The art of taking a pitch
In addition to poorly managed drafts, the Cubs have failed when it comes to development, as four prospects whose tools created sizeable hype failed to live up to expectations. Nearly all of them have the same issue: a lack of plate discipline.
To go back a bit, 1998 first-round pick Corey Patterson is the poster boy for these problems. One of the best athletes to ever play in the Cubs' system, Patterson had a monster full-season debut in 1999, batting .320/.358/.592 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) for Low-A Lansing with 33 stolen bases, and his free-swinging ways were the only thing scouts could point to when it came to finding a weakness in his game. Instead of addressing the issue, the Cubs aggressively pushed Patterson up through the system; he reached the big leagues at the age of 20, was handed a full-time job two years later and promptly walked all of 19 times in 153 games while recording 142 strikeouts. Things never got better for him from there -- now approaching 30, he's playing in Triple-A for the Nationals.
Sadly, three other highly regarded prospects have followed suit. Harvey, noted above, initially drew comparisons to Dale Murphy when the Cubs selected him. While he led the Midwest League in home runs during his full-season debut, his 137-25 strikes-walks ratio prevented him from hitting for average, and that imbalance was never corrected, leading to his release from the organization prior to this season. Colvin, the player picked to help set up the Samrdizija debacle, is another top-notch athlete, but he now is in his fourth pro season and has yet to draw his 100th career walk.
Finally, there is Felix Pie, once trumpeted as the top prospect in the system as an outstanding ceter fielder with a quick bat, plus-plus speed and gap power that could project for a bit more down the road. Like Patterson before him, Pie never developed much of an approach and never learned to lay off breaking balls outside of the strike zone. Unfortunately, pure athleticism alone hasn't been enough for him to make any impact in the big leagues.
Light at the end of the tunnel?
Things certainly are better of late, as scouting director Tim Wilken has brought some respectability back to the Cubs' recent drafts. The international scouting department, under the direction of Paul Sullivan, has made some big breakthroughs, especially in Asia, as the current minor league team in Boise, Idaho, has a pair of Koreans generating significant buzz: shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and outfielder Jae-Hoon Ha. Still, there's a lot of work left to do to overcome the mistakes of the past -- and they can't be major players at the deadline, financial unrest or no.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->BP Daily: Not taking care of their Cubs
Concerns about drafting and development are hampering the North Siders
By Kevin Goldstein
Baseball Prospectus
At first glance, the Chicago Cubs should have been an obvious pursuer of Roy Halladay. Selected by most to run away with the National League Central this season, they instead have been treading water. Halladay could be the difference for any team in that division, but the dark cloud hanging over the Cubs' ownership situation and a current owner spending significant time in bankruptcy court likely prevent them from taking on the Toronto Blue Jays ace's contract.
Even if everything were hunky-dory when it came to ownership, the failure of the organization in the middle years of this decade would keep the team out of contention in trade talks anyway, as the Cubs have done little to help themselves through scouting and player development.
The Draft: Mistakes with big picks and writing big checks
The Cubs' farm system is poor, especially at the upper levels. That's because from 2003 through '06, the organization had some of the worst drafts around. A snapshot:
2003: With the sixth overall selection in the draft, the Cubs took toolsy high school outfielder Ryan Harvey, who now is with Colorado's Double-A team after never progressing as expected. Nobody questioned the pick at the time; it's just one of those that don't work out. Or maybe there is some fault here, but we'll get back to that in a bit. The only big leaguer they landed in the first five rounds is Jake Fox, who has become a nice bench bat, and they made a nice selection in the sixth round with lefty Sean Marshall. The big story here, though? The three players selected after Harvey were Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm and John Danks.
2004: With no first-round pick, the Cubs used their second-round selection on Notre Dame righty Grant Johnson, and they gave him first-round money ($1.26 million) despite the fact that most teams had him as only a second-round talent to begin with. Rarely healthy, Johnson had a 4.53 ERA in the minors and now is pitching in the independent leagues. The rest of the draft was just as big a failure, with no players making a significant impact in the big leagues, although 12th-round pick Sean Gallagher was used to acquire Rich Harden last summer.
2005: An even bigger disaster than 2004, as not a single player selected in 2005 has played in the big leagues for the Cubs -- nor will they. Like the Harvey pick two years before, first-round pick Mark Pawelek seemed like a sound selection at the time, but injuries and a lack of effort saw him released this past spring after he had made only two appearances in full-season leagues.
2006: This could be the most questionable year of the bunch for the Cubbies. They lacked picks in the second, third and fourth rounds; in the first round, they went with Tyler Colvin at 13th overall as a bit of a signability selection. In the fifth, they threw all their eggs in one basket by taking Notre Dame righty Jeff Samardzija. To take Samardzija was one thing, but to smash all draft records by handing him a $10 million package remains a puzzling move. Yes, he needed to be bought away from pursuing an NFL career, but as an athletic and raw power righty, he was no more than a late-first-round player on pure talent, and the premium turned into eight times that. Three years later, he remains an unpolished product who shows flashes of ability but has never consistently dominated at any level. As for Colvin, his issues with plate discipline have him stagnating at Double-A. And the rest of the draft? It has produced zero big leaguers and only a pair of fringy-at-best prospects in catcher Steve Clevenger and righty Chris Huseby, who also received a significantly over-slot first-round bonus and, interestingly enough, shares an agent with Samardzija.
Player Development: The art of taking a pitch
In addition to poorly managed drafts, the Cubs have failed when it comes to development, as four prospects whose tools created sizeable hype failed to live up to expectations. Nearly all of them have the same issue: a lack of plate discipline.
To go back a bit, 1998 first-round pick Corey Patterson is the poster boy for these problems. One of the best athletes to ever play in the Cubs' system, Patterson had a monster full-season debut in 1999, batting .320/.358/.592 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) for Low-A Lansing with 33 stolen bases, and his free-swinging ways were the only thing scouts could point to when it came to finding a weakness in his game. Instead of addressing the issue, the Cubs aggressively pushed Patterson up through the system; he reached the big leagues at the age of 20, was handed a full-time job two years later and promptly walked all of 19 times in 153 games while recording 142 strikeouts. Things never got better for him from there -- now approaching 30, he's playing in Triple-A for the Nationals.
Sadly, three other highly regarded prospects have followed suit. Harvey, noted above, initially drew comparisons to Dale Murphy when the Cubs selected him. While he led the Midwest League in home runs during his full-season debut, his 137-25 strikes-walks ratio prevented him from hitting for average, and that imbalance was never corrected, leading to his release from the organization prior to this season. Colvin, the player picked to help set up the Samrdizija debacle, is another top-notch athlete, but he now is in his fourth pro season and has yet to draw his 100th career walk.
Finally, there is Felix Pie, once trumpeted as the top prospect in the system as an outstanding ceter fielder with a quick bat, plus-plus speed and gap power that could project for a bit more down the road. Like Patterson before him, Pie never developed much of an approach and never learned to lay off breaking balls outside of the strike zone. Unfortunately, pure athleticism alone hasn't been enough for him to make any impact in the big leagues.
Light at the end of the tunnel?
Things certainly are better of late, as scouting director Tim Wilken has brought some respectability back to the Cubs' recent drafts. The international scouting department, under the direction of Paul Sullivan, has made some big breakthroughs, especially in Asia, as the current minor league team in Boise, Idaho, has a pair of Koreans generating significant buzz: shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and outfielder Jae-Hoon Ha. Still, there's a lot of work left to do to overcome the mistakes of the past -- and they can't be major players at the deadline, financial unrest or no.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance