07-29-2009, 04:50 PM
<!--quoteo(post=53260:date=Jul 29 2009, 03:38 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Jul 29 2009, 03:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I've got to go play softball now, but I will leave you with this.
I proved that virtually the bedrock of your premise (Fox always hits fly balls, and we needed a fly ball), was wrong (30 percent does not equal always). I then created a scenario in which I skewed virtually every number YOUR way in order to prove that at best, there was very little difference between the 2 scenarios (I don't think giving Fontenot a 50 percent chance of simply putting the ball in play is too high a number, which would make the Fox choice the wrong one), and your response was "see, now that we've proven Fox was more likely to knock him in, Lou is insane for choosing another option".
That's maddening.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If you're allowed to decide what the "bedrock" of my premise is, then it's easy to decide the outcome of this discussion. And I don't think you even came close to "proving" that there is very little difference between the 2 scenarios. There's a vast chasm between the 2 scenarios.
Talk about maddening.
I proved that virtually the bedrock of your premise (Fox always hits fly balls, and we needed a fly ball), was wrong (30 percent does not equal always). I then created a scenario in which I skewed virtually every number YOUR way in order to prove that at best, there was very little difference between the 2 scenarios (I don't think giving Fontenot a 50 percent chance of simply putting the ball in play is too high a number, which would make the Fox choice the wrong one), and your response was "see, now that we've proven Fox was more likely to knock him in, Lou is insane for choosing another option".
That's maddening.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If you're allowed to decide what the "bedrock" of my premise is, then it's easy to decide the outcome of this discussion. And I don't think you even came close to "proving" that there is very little difference between the 2 scenarios. There's a vast chasm between the 2 scenarios.
Talk about maddening.