07-29-2009, 03:07 PM
You're leaving out some factors, BT.
- The bases were loaded. A HBP, and a walk both score a run there. If you work the count instead of flail away trying to bunt, you've got a pretty good chance that Valverde drives the run home on his own.
- Because Valverde was wild, the liklihood of him *not* throwing a buntable pitch was higher (nevermind what happened -- it doesn't factor into Lou's decision), leaving Bradley out to dry.
- Fontenot is a LHB, making the play that much easier to read for Pudge.
- I don't think 40% is high enough for Fox. The fact that he is hitting .312 means there's already a 31% chance that he gets a base hit. 31% is the foundation. Add in the odds of him being able to hit a medium-to-deep flyball, and the possibility of drawing a walk, and the odds are much, much greater than 40%.
And even if the odds are as you present, why would you ever choose the 30% probability over the 40% probability? I still don't understand that.
- The bases were loaded. A HBP, and a walk both score a run there. If you work the count instead of flail away trying to bunt, you've got a pretty good chance that Valverde drives the run home on his own.
- Because Valverde was wild, the liklihood of him *not* throwing a buntable pitch was higher (nevermind what happened -- it doesn't factor into Lou's decision), leaving Bradley out to dry.
- Fontenot is a LHB, making the play that much easier to read for Pudge.
- I don't think 40% is high enough for Fox. The fact that he is hitting .312 means there's already a 31% chance that he gets a base hit. 31% is the foundation. Add in the odds of him being able to hit a medium-to-deep flyball, and the possibility of drawing a walk, and the odds are much, much greater than 40%.
And even if the odds are as you present, why would you ever choose the 30% probability over the 40% probability? I still don't understand that.