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I saw the argument in the game thread....
You're leaving out some factors, BT.

- The bases were loaded. A HBP, and a walk both score a run there. If you work the count instead of flail away trying to bunt, you've got a pretty good chance that Valverde drives the run home on his own.

- Because Valverde was wild, the liklihood of him *not* throwing a buntable pitch was higher (nevermind what happened -- it doesn't factor into Lou's decision), leaving Bradley out to dry.

- Fontenot is a LHB, making the play that much easier to read for Pudge.

- I don't think 40% is high enough for Fox. The fact that he is hitting .312 means there's already a 31% chance that he gets a base hit. 31% is the foundation. Add in the odds of him being able to hit a medium-to-deep flyball, and the possibility of drawing a walk, and the odds are much, much greater than 40%.

And even if the odds are as you present, why would you ever choose the 30% probability over the 40% probability? I still don't understand that.
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Messages In This Thread
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-28-2009, 09:42 AM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-28-2009, 11:41 AM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-28-2009, 12:08 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 01:02 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 01:08 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 01:32 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 01:37 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 01:40 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 01:42 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 01:48 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 01:51 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 01:58 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 02:04 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 02:14 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 02:19 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 02:29 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 02:33 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 02:53 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-28-2009, 02:57 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-28-2009, 03:11 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-28-2009, 03:40 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-28-2009, 04:00 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-28-2009, 04:10 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-28-2009, 05:06 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-28-2009, 06:48 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-29-2009, 09:18 AM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-29-2009, 09:31 AM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-29-2009, 09:35 AM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-29-2009, 10:17 AM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-29-2009, 01:00 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-29-2009, 01:44 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-29-2009, 02:48 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by Butcher - 07-29-2009, 03:07 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-29-2009, 03:57 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-29-2009, 04:38 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-29-2009, 06:47 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-29-2009, 06:50 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-29-2009, 06:51 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-29-2009, 06:55 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-29-2009, 07:03 PM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-30-2009, 12:13 AM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-30-2009, 12:33 AM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by BT - 07-30-2009, 08:11 AM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-30-2009, 10:42 AM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-30-2009, 11:03 AM
I saw the argument in the game thread.... - by bz - 07-30-2009, 11:08 AM

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