12-08-2008, 12:41 PM
<!--quoteo(post=2177:date=Dec 8 2008, 10:36 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Dec 8 2008, 10:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2160:date=Dec 8 2008, 10:05 AM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Dec 8 2008, 10:05 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->virtually every study I've seen suggests there is no such thing as a "clutch" hitter<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I disagree with that statement big time. Other than that, I agree with everything else that BT said.
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Perhaps it's overstated a bit, and maybe the research has shown something different recently, but I'll go with this from nate silver:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->That said, apart from the bonus effects of plate discipline, it's probably folly for a club to go looking for clutch hitters -- the ability just isn't important enough in the bigger scheme of things. Producing wins at the plate is about 70 percent a matter of overall hitting ability, 28 percent dumb luck, and perhaps 2 percent clutch- or situational-hitting skill.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
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I think that certain hitters thrive depending on the situation. I'm not sure that a formula can properly capture this, but most of the time when I see stats for BARISP they're pretty accurate. It just doesn't seem enough to say that if a hitter is already a high average/high OBP guy, that it translates automatically into that player being "clutch." 70% seems a high attribution, but statistically speaking it isn't. That other 30% is pretty significant and can't mostly be attributed to luck IMO.
I disagree with that statement big time. Other than that, I agree with everything else that BT said.
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Perhaps it's overstated a bit, and maybe the research has shown something different recently, but I'll go with this from nate silver:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->That said, apart from the bonus effects of plate discipline, it's probably folly for a club to go looking for clutch hitters -- the ability just isn't important enough in the bigger scheme of things. Producing wins at the plate is about 70 percent a matter of overall hitting ability, 28 percent dumb luck, and perhaps 2 percent clutch- or situational-hitting skill.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
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I think that certain hitters thrive depending on the situation. I'm not sure that a formula can properly capture this, but most of the time when I see stats for BARISP they're pretty accurate. It just doesn't seem enough to say that if a hitter is already a high average/high OBP guy, that it translates automatically into that player being "clutch." 70% seems a high attribution, but statistically speaking it isn't. That other 30% is pretty significant and can't mostly be attributed to luck IMO.