04-13-2009, 05:06 PM
<!--quoteo(post=29995:date=Apr 13 2009, 03:42 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 03:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29965:date=Apr 13 2009, 03:20 PM:name=bz)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bz @ Apr 13 2009, 03:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29824:date=Apr 13 2009, 11:08 AM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 11:08 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Probability. It's a bitch, ain't it?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So you don't think that Soriano could defy probability and be a statistical anomaly?
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The probability statement had to do with tom's insinuation that had Soriano been penciled it at any other place in the lineup, he would not have homered, and thus, we would have lost.
I was simply pointing out that no one can possibly know what would have occurred if he was hitting someplace else in the lineup.
I took a guess: since he's a home run hitter, he's really streaky, and he's in the middle of a red-hot streak, he might have homered no matter where he was batting. But I also included, for <i>your</i> benefit, Bz, an alternate scenario, a bad scenario: Alf K's.
We can't predict the future. We can only make educated guesses. But our collective educations have resoundingly indicated that leadoff guys tend to help their teams more if they get on base at a real high clip. Alf does not.
A less important leadoff skill: being a great base-stealer. Alf is not.
Alf does have one kick-ass skill, one that is both rare and immensely valuable: he can hit a lot of home runs. Traditionally, it's been considered a pleasant thing if there are men on base when a guy homers, which doesn't happen as often if one is leading off, but I see no problem with going against conventional wisdom as long as we keep winning. Carry on.
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But Alf <i>will</i> bat with runners on regardless of his spot in the lineup, because it is a good one top to bottom (the point Tom and Ruby were making.) So why take advantage of his uncharacteristic propensity for hitting better in the leadoff spot?
It would be interesting to use Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool to see what the results would be for Soriano batting leadoff vs 3rd or 4th.
So you don't think that Soriano could defy probability and be a statistical anomaly?
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The probability statement had to do with tom's insinuation that had Soriano been penciled it at any other place in the lineup, he would not have homered, and thus, we would have lost.
I was simply pointing out that no one can possibly know what would have occurred if he was hitting someplace else in the lineup.
I took a guess: since he's a home run hitter, he's really streaky, and he's in the middle of a red-hot streak, he might have homered no matter where he was batting. But I also included, for <i>your</i> benefit, Bz, an alternate scenario, a bad scenario: Alf K's.
We can't predict the future. We can only make educated guesses. But our collective educations have resoundingly indicated that leadoff guys tend to help their teams more if they get on base at a real high clip. Alf does not.
A less important leadoff skill: being a great base-stealer. Alf is not.
Alf does have one kick-ass skill, one that is both rare and immensely valuable: he can hit a lot of home runs. Traditionally, it's been considered a pleasant thing if there are men on base when a guy homers, which doesn't happen as often if one is leading off, but I see no problem with going against conventional wisdom as long as we keep winning. Carry on.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
But Alf <i>will</i> bat with runners on regardless of his spot in the lineup, because it is a good one top to bottom (the point Tom and Ruby were making.) So why take advantage of his uncharacteristic propensity for hitting better in the leadoff spot?
It would be interesting to use Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool to see what the results would be for Soriano batting leadoff vs 3rd or 4th.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy