04-13-2009, 04:42 PM
<!--quoteo(post=29965:date=Apr 13 2009, 03:20 PM:name=bz)-->QUOTE (bz @ Apr 13 2009, 03:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29824:date=Apr 13 2009, 11:08 AM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 11:08 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Probability. It's a bitch, ain't it?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So you don't think that Soriano could defy probability and be a statistical anomaly?
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The probability statement had to do with tom's insinuation that had Soriano been penciled it at any other place in the lineup, he would not have homered, and thus, we would have lost.
I was simply pointing out that no one can possibly know what would have occurred if he was hitting someplace else in the lineup.
I took a guess: since he's a home run hitter, he's really streaky, and he's in the middle of a red-hot streak, he might have homered no matter where he was batting. But I also included, for <i>your</i> benefit, Bz, an alternate scenario, a bad scenario: Alf K's.
We can't predict the future. We can only make educated guesses. But our collective educations have resoundingly indicated that leadoff guys tend to help their teams more if they get on base at a real high clip. Alf does not.
A less important leadoff skill: being a great base-stealer. Alf is not.
Alf does have one kick-ass skill, one that is both rare and immensely valuable: he can hit a lot of home runs. Traditionally, it's been considered a pleasant thing if there are men on base when a guy homers, which doesn't happen as often if one is leading off, but I see no problem with going against conventional wisdom as long as we keep winning. Carry on.
So you don't think that Soriano could defy probability and be a statistical anomaly?
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The probability statement had to do with tom's insinuation that had Soriano been penciled it at any other place in the lineup, he would not have homered, and thus, we would have lost.
I was simply pointing out that no one can possibly know what would have occurred if he was hitting someplace else in the lineup.
I took a guess: since he's a home run hitter, he's really streaky, and he's in the middle of a red-hot streak, he might have homered no matter where he was batting. But I also included, for <i>your</i> benefit, Bz, an alternate scenario, a bad scenario: Alf K's.
We can't predict the future. We can only make educated guesses. But our collective educations have resoundingly indicated that leadoff guys tend to help their teams more if they get on base at a real high clip. Alf does not.
A less important leadoff skill: being a great base-stealer. Alf is not.
Alf does have one kick-ass skill, one that is both rare and immensely valuable: he can hit a lot of home runs. Traditionally, it's been considered a pleasant thing if there are men on base when a guy homers, which doesn't happen as often if one is leading off, but I see no problem with going against conventional wisdom as long as we keep winning. Carry on.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance