03-18-2009, 09:37 AM
<!--quoteo(post=23759:date=Mar 17 2009, 11:41 PM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Mar 17 2009, 11:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think Ace's math is correct. Gregg's salary will be set by the market, which will probably still be down next year. Marmol's salary is set by a formula which will not fully reflect the down market and will overvalue saves. When making a decision, the Cubs have to consider the future of the team, which includes future salaries and the fact that if Gregg is not made the closer he is less likely to want to re-sign next year.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
But you are forgetting that first year arbitration numbers don't come near matching Free Agency numbers. How much would Jonathan Papelbon be worth in the open market? 10 million? 15 million? He just signed for 6 million. Which, by the way, is the all time record for first time arbitration eligible relievers. So that would be the absolute MAX that Marmol could hope for. Conversely, Kerry Wood, after one year of closing, with multiple stints on the DL, just signed for 10.5 million. Arbitration is cheaper for stars than Free Agency is.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->And that even if they did discuss the matter, Hendry would have no input on breaking what is close to a tie. And even if he did have a little bit of input, he definitely wouldn't take the Cubs payroll future into consideration.
Seems absurd to me, but ok.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Really? Absurd? The GM dictating to the manager who plays seems like the more obvious scenario to you? Frankly, your scenario depends on
A: The Cubs, a full year ahead of time, fully planning on dumping a newly acquired asset that they gave up one of their best prospects to get, AND
B: Both Marmol and Gregg performing SO IDENTICALLY that no mere mortal can decide between the two, AND
C: Lou not telling Hendry "FUCK YOU" when Hendry suggests that the closer be determined by placing the guy who might save the club one or two million dollars. In the most important position in the bullpen for a championship quality club.
Unless all 3 of those criteria are met, your scenario falls apart. I could see this happening if Hendry pushed Lou to play Fuk instead of Gathright, in order to trade Fuk, because that could save a substantial amount of money. I can't see him even bothering to get into it in order to save 2 million.
But you are forgetting that first year arbitration numbers don't come near matching Free Agency numbers. How much would Jonathan Papelbon be worth in the open market? 10 million? 15 million? He just signed for 6 million. Which, by the way, is the all time record for first time arbitration eligible relievers. So that would be the absolute MAX that Marmol could hope for. Conversely, Kerry Wood, after one year of closing, with multiple stints on the DL, just signed for 10.5 million. Arbitration is cheaper for stars than Free Agency is.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->And that even if they did discuss the matter, Hendry would have no input on breaking what is close to a tie. And even if he did have a little bit of input, he definitely wouldn't take the Cubs payroll future into consideration.
Seems absurd to me, but ok.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Really? Absurd? The GM dictating to the manager who plays seems like the more obvious scenario to you? Frankly, your scenario depends on
A: The Cubs, a full year ahead of time, fully planning on dumping a newly acquired asset that they gave up one of their best prospects to get, AND
B: Both Marmol and Gregg performing SO IDENTICALLY that no mere mortal can decide between the two, AND
C: Lou not telling Hendry "FUCK YOU" when Hendry suggests that the closer be determined by placing the guy who might save the club one or two million dollars. In the most important position in the bullpen for a championship quality club.
Unless all 3 of those criteria are met, your scenario falls apart. I could see this happening if Hendry pushed Lou to play Fuk instead of Gathright, in order to trade Fuk, because that could save a substantial amount of money. I can't see him even bothering to get into it in order to save 2 million.
I wish that I believed in Fate. I wish I didn't sleep so late. I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders.