03-05-2009, 09:58 AM
<!--quoteo(post=21930:date=Mar 5 2009, 01:59 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 5 2009, 01:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Keep in mind that Bill James, PECOTA, and all the other projections are all 100% based on math. So they're basing Fuk's numbers on how he did in Japan (where he kicked ass), and his <i>total</i> numbers from last year.
If a Japanese import pitcher goes 10-1 in his first half season, then goes 1-10 in the second half (and looks absolutely terrible doing it), would you project him as a .500 pitcher again the following year?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Keep in mind, KB only likes to look at convoluted stats like PECOTA, VORP, OPS+, etc., etc. when they support his argument. When they agree with what he says, they are golden, they are right and true. When they don't point towards his desired outcome, they are garbage, totally convoluted, add no value.
KB, do you see why it's usually fruitless to try to have any rational discussion with you about stats, player's ability, player's value, etc., etc? There's a reason why most people don't take your arguments seriously.
That said, Fuk is probably gonna suck.
If a Japanese import pitcher goes 10-1 in his first half season, then goes 1-10 in the second half (and looks absolutely terrible doing it), would you project him as a .500 pitcher again the following year?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Keep in mind, KB only likes to look at convoluted stats like PECOTA, VORP, OPS+, etc., etc. when they support his argument. When they agree with what he says, they are golden, they are right and true. When they don't point towards his desired outcome, they are garbage, totally convoluted, add no value.
KB, do you see why it's usually fruitless to try to have any rational discussion with you about stats, player's ability, player's value, etc., etc? There's a reason why most people don't take your arguments seriously.
That said, Fuk is probably gonna suck.