02-25-2009, 11:21 PM
<!--quoteo(post=20375:date=Feb 25 2009, 09:15 PM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Feb 25 2009, 09:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20366:date=Feb 25 2009, 08:56 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Feb 25 2009, 08:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Fine. How about these conclusions.
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Draft Rule #6: Draft Rule #5 appears to be obsolete when looking at data from after 1991. The advantage enjoyed by college players over high-school players has dropped to 8%, a margin of dubious statistical significance.
Draft Rule #7: The value of high-school players relative to their college counterparts has shot up, even though teams were more likely to use top draft picks on high-school players in the 1990s than in the 1980s.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
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I can't read the whole thing, but that would be totally mixed results.
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that's pretty much what he says. He presented the initial stats you quoted, so he could show how they went out the window on closer examination.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->In my 10 years of writing for Baseball Prospectus, this is the most surprising conclusion I have ever reached in an analytical study. I suspected that the advantage enjoyed by collegiate players had diminished, but I didn't anticipate the degree to which it has. And I certainly did not suspect that high-school players would jump in value relative to college picks even as teams were drafting more high school players, not less.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Draft Rule #6: Draft Rule #5 appears to be obsolete when looking at data from after 1991. The advantage enjoyed by college players over high-school players has dropped to 8%, a margin of dubious statistical significance.
Draft Rule #7: The value of high-school players relative to their college counterparts has shot up, even though teams were more likely to use top draft picks on high-school players in the 1990s than in the 1980s.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I can't read the whole thing, but that would be totally mixed results.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
that's pretty much what he says. He presented the initial stats you quoted, so he could show how they went out the window on closer examination.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->In my 10 years of writing for Baseball Prospectus, this is the most surprising conclusion I have ever reached in an analytical study. I suspected that the advantage enjoyed by collegiate players had diminished, but I didn't anticipate the degree to which it has. And I certainly did not suspect that high-school players would jump in value relative to college picks even as teams were drafting more high school players, not less.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I wish that I believed in Fate. I wish I didn't sleep so late. I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders.