02-13-2009, 01:36 AM
He's kind of a prickly mofo, but he's damn smart, and is an interesting hybrid: a serious baseball scout who also thinks stats can be beneficial. Some items:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Otis : Is there a good way to measure the best situational hitter (not just clutch, but moving runners and making productive outs). Do GM's take this into account? If so, doesn't Orlando Hudson make a lot of teams better?
Keith Law: There are no productive outs. Just discard the term. Unless a run scores directly on the play, an out nearly always puts a major dent in your run expectation for the inning. So GMs who take "productive outs" into account are ... bad GMs.
John (NJ): Per A-Rod SI story: Any chance the Feds shake down Selena Roberts for her sources? Those people have committed the biggest crime in this whole story.
Keith Law: There's no federal shield law, right? Not only do I expect her to be asked to divulge her sources, the only correct ethical course of action for her is to divulge them. From a normative point of view (rather than a legal one), the benefit from producing this information does not, in my opinion, justify how the information was obtained (the sources violated a federal court order) or the invasions of A-Rod's privacy and that of the other 103 players. I'd really like to see the leakers face the consequences of their actions, which I can only imagine were done out of spite. This wasn't exactly Watergate - did anyone hear the news on Saturday and think, "Wow, baseball has a steroids problem? That's news to me!"
Jason (Brooklyn): Keith, follow-up re: "productive outs," please. There may be no prductive outs, but aren't outs that at least move a runner up deemed less unproductive than outs that fail to advance a runner?
Keith Law: The positive value of moving a runner up a base is dwarfed by the negative value of the additional out in just about every base-out state. The exceptions (off the top of my head) are an out that scores a run and an out that takes you from 0 outs and runners on 12x to 1 out and x23.
Dan (DC): Did you ever post any thoughts on the Pie/Olson trade? Can Pie hit for LF?
Keith Law: I won't give up on Pie - I think he just needs an extended opportunity. I like the swing and the power potential, but the approach is a little wobbly. I'm pretty sure he's not a fan of the breaking ball.
Sacrifice Bunt: If you don't believe in productive outs, do you not believe in me?
Keith Law: For non-pitchers, no, not really. Bunting for hits, yes, absolutely, but the pure sacrifice? I'd sooner buy a six-pack of Old Mildred.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Otis : Is there a good way to measure the best situational hitter (not just clutch, but moving runners and making productive outs). Do GM's take this into account? If so, doesn't Orlando Hudson make a lot of teams better?
Keith Law: There are no productive outs. Just discard the term. Unless a run scores directly on the play, an out nearly always puts a major dent in your run expectation for the inning. So GMs who take "productive outs" into account are ... bad GMs.
John (NJ): Per A-Rod SI story: Any chance the Feds shake down Selena Roberts for her sources? Those people have committed the biggest crime in this whole story.
Keith Law: There's no federal shield law, right? Not only do I expect her to be asked to divulge her sources, the only correct ethical course of action for her is to divulge them. From a normative point of view (rather than a legal one), the benefit from producing this information does not, in my opinion, justify how the information was obtained (the sources violated a federal court order) or the invasions of A-Rod's privacy and that of the other 103 players. I'd really like to see the leakers face the consequences of their actions, which I can only imagine were done out of spite. This wasn't exactly Watergate - did anyone hear the news on Saturday and think, "Wow, baseball has a steroids problem? That's news to me!"
Jason (Brooklyn): Keith, follow-up re: "productive outs," please. There may be no prductive outs, but aren't outs that at least move a runner up deemed less unproductive than outs that fail to advance a runner?
Keith Law: The positive value of moving a runner up a base is dwarfed by the negative value of the additional out in just about every base-out state. The exceptions (off the top of my head) are an out that scores a run and an out that takes you from 0 outs and runners on 12x to 1 out and x23.
Dan (DC): Did you ever post any thoughts on the Pie/Olson trade? Can Pie hit for LF?
Keith Law: I won't give up on Pie - I think he just needs an extended opportunity. I like the swing and the power potential, but the approach is a little wobbly. I'm pretty sure he's not a fan of the breaking ball.
Sacrifice Bunt: If you don't believe in productive outs, do you not believe in me?
Keith Law: For non-pitchers, no, not really. Bunting for hits, yes, absolutely, but the pure sacrifice? I'd sooner buy a six-pack of Old Mildred.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance