02-12-2009, 12:18 AM
<!--quoteo(post=17311:date=Feb 11 2009, 12:21 PM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Feb 11 2009, 12:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->If you think OBP is the most important thing, that clutch results are random, that BABIP is random, pretty much everything but walks and HRs are random, then you might as well watch dice baseball. You are discounting the things that make real live baseball an interesting game.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No offense Leonard, but it's comments like these (and the "they must really not watch the games" comment) that make the anti-stathead folks like yourself come off as very petty, smug, and closed minded. Just because others like to delve a little bit deeper into the statistics of the game that means that they are somehow making the game less interesting for themselves? That's just silly.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->If the tying run is at 3rd less than 2 outs, you pitch to Adam Dunn where he can't hit the ball and hope for a KO or at worst, walk. If you have a multiple run lead with no runners on base, you pitch to where Adam Dunn can hit the ball. 75% chance he gets out, 10% chance he hit a HR.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Is it ironic for me to ask you to cite some statistics to prove these percentages? Or did you just make it up from your unbiased "observation?"
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Clutch hitting has to exist, because clutch at bats are not the same as other at bats.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No one is saying that clutch hitting doesn't exist. Of course it exists. What has been questioned is the idea that clutch hitters exist i.e. are there guys that are clutch year after year after year. And for the most part you can't really find any, though I was just reading a newer article from Bill James the other day where he suggests that some of the studies may have been flawed and does point out some clutch players, such as David Ortiz and Chipper Jones, if I'm remembering correctly.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->It is not just the ability to handle pressure, in clutch ABs you see better pitchers. Then you add the pressure factor. There is no way that everybody handles pressure equally, or that the same player would not have a different response to pressure over time.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I tend to think that by the time a guy reaches the big leagues with all the time spent playing this game in his lifetime that he has a pretty good idea on how to handle pressure. And I tend to think that relying solely on observation skews your perceptions as you tend to remember all the times that a player fails in pressure situations and put your own spin on it without going back to the statistics to confirm or refute your perceptions.
No offense Leonard, but it's comments like these (and the "they must really not watch the games" comment) that make the anti-stathead folks like yourself come off as very petty, smug, and closed minded. Just because others like to delve a little bit deeper into the statistics of the game that means that they are somehow making the game less interesting for themselves? That's just silly.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->If the tying run is at 3rd less than 2 outs, you pitch to Adam Dunn where he can't hit the ball and hope for a KO or at worst, walk. If you have a multiple run lead with no runners on base, you pitch to where Adam Dunn can hit the ball. 75% chance he gets out, 10% chance he hit a HR.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Is it ironic for me to ask you to cite some statistics to prove these percentages? Or did you just make it up from your unbiased "observation?"
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Clutch hitting has to exist, because clutch at bats are not the same as other at bats.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No one is saying that clutch hitting doesn't exist. Of course it exists. What has been questioned is the idea that clutch hitters exist i.e. are there guys that are clutch year after year after year. And for the most part you can't really find any, though I was just reading a newer article from Bill James the other day where he suggests that some of the studies may have been flawed and does point out some clutch players, such as David Ortiz and Chipper Jones, if I'm remembering correctly.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->It is not just the ability to handle pressure, in clutch ABs you see better pitchers. Then you add the pressure factor. There is no way that everybody handles pressure equally, or that the same player would not have a different response to pressure over time.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I tend to think that by the time a guy reaches the big leagues with all the time spent playing this game in his lifetime that he has a pretty good idea on how to handle pressure. And I tend to think that relying solely on observation skews your perceptions as you tend to remember all the times that a player fails in pressure situations and put your own spin on it without going back to the statistics to confirm or refute your perceptions.