02-11-2009, 02:21 PM
If you think OBP is the most important thing, that clutch results are random, that BABIP is random, pretty much everything but walks and HRs are random, then you might as well watch dice baseball. You are discounting the things that make real live baseball an interesting game.
Pitchers pitch differently, and different pitchers pitch in different situations. Every body talks about the Cubs bringing Marmol in to get key outs. If the tying run is at 3rd less than 2 outs, you pitch to Adam Dunn where he can't hit the ball and hope for a KO or at worst, walk. If you have a multiple run lead with no runners on base, you pitch to where Adam Dunn can hit the ball. 75% chance he gets out, 10% chance he hit a HR.
The best pitchers in the most important moments will be going to the parts of the stike zone that any given hitter is weak. If the pitcher has the advantage, he also has the opportunity to go outside the strike zone. The hitters with the best control of the strike zone will do better in clutch situations.
Clutch hitting has to exist, because clutch at bats are not the same as other at bats. It is not just the ability to handle pressure, in clutch ABs you see better pitchers. Then you add the pressure factor. There is no way that everybody handles pressure equally, or that the same player would not have a different response to pressure over time.
Pitchers pitch differently, and different pitchers pitch in different situations. Every body talks about the Cubs bringing Marmol in to get key outs. If the tying run is at 3rd less than 2 outs, you pitch to Adam Dunn where he can't hit the ball and hope for a KO or at worst, walk. If you have a multiple run lead with no runners on base, you pitch to where Adam Dunn can hit the ball. 75% chance he gets out, 10% chance he hit a HR.
The best pitchers in the most important moments will be going to the parts of the stike zone that any given hitter is weak. If the pitcher has the advantage, he also has the opportunity to go outside the strike zone. The hitters with the best control of the strike zone will do better in clutch situations.
Clutch hitting has to exist, because clutch at bats are not the same as other at bats. It is not just the ability to handle pressure, in clutch ABs you see better pitchers. Then you add the pressure factor. There is no way that everybody handles pressure equally, or that the same player would not have a different response to pressure over time.
I like you guys a lot.