09-19-2024, 05:09 PM
I was curious about WAR leaders, and if Ohtani was likely to get an MVP primarily as a DH. Looked up FanGraphs league leaders and found Judge and Witt Jr. at 10.1 and 10, which is incredible. Ohtani is at 7. I got curious about Cubs leaders and Happ was first at 4, then Swanson at 3.6, Hoerner at 3.5 (defense driving this I assume), then Suzuki (the opposite) at 3.1. Then they have Steele at 2.9 and Shota at 2.8.
I totally understand why it's not wise to fixate on a pitcher's actual W/L record, so much is out of their control, but when talking about "wins above replacement" I have a hard time understanding how a pitcher's WAR can be that low relative to a theoretical "replacement-level" pitcher, if replacement level isn't an average of all starters. I see in the FanGraphs glossary just how complex the calculations are that are being done, and as a tool of comparison between players I have no issue with it, but I think I'm just hung up on the definition of a "replacement-level player". Definitions I've found include, "players who are of a caliber such that they are always available in the minor leagues because the players are well below major-league average" and "the level of production you could get from a player that would cost you nothing but the league minimum salary to acquire." In what world would we be able to pitch a guy that fits either of those definitions and expect him to approximate anything near 2.8 wins under what Shota has done in 28 starts? The idea that Judge is going to help get his team 10 more wins over the course of 150 games to date than a guy available and likely to make the league minimum makes sense to me. But there's no way a SP from the minors, or floating around among MLB teams, available and likely to be paid the minimum, could start 28 times and/or throw for 160+ innings and not get absolutely shelled. What am I missing?
Just had a thought... Part of it must be that games are 9 (or more) innings, and so SPs pitching every 5 days, and not often going more than 6 or 7 innings, are thus going to have much lower ceilings than position players. But still, it feels off to me.
I totally understand why it's not wise to fixate on a pitcher's actual W/L record, so much is out of their control, but when talking about "wins above replacement" I have a hard time understanding how a pitcher's WAR can be that low relative to a theoretical "replacement-level" pitcher, if replacement level isn't an average of all starters. I see in the FanGraphs glossary just how complex the calculations are that are being done, and as a tool of comparison between players I have no issue with it, but I think I'm just hung up on the definition of a "replacement-level player". Definitions I've found include, "players who are of a caliber such that they are always available in the minor leagues because the players are well below major-league average" and "the level of production you could get from a player that would cost you nothing but the league minimum salary to acquire." In what world would we be able to pitch a guy that fits either of those definitions and expect him to approximate anything near 2.8 wins under what Shota has done in 28 starts? The idea that Judge is going to help get his team 10 more wins over the course of 150 games to date than a guy available and likely to make the league minimum makes sense to me. But there's no way a SP from the minors, or floating around among MLB teams, available and likely to be paid the minimum, could start 28 times and/or throw for 160+ innings and not get absolutely shelled. What am I missing?
Just had a thought... Part of it must be that games are 9 (or more) innings, and so SPs pitching every 5 days, and not often going more than 6 or 7 innings, are thus going to have much lower ceilings than position players. But still, it feels off to me.