Farm System

[Kid]

Here's Law's write-up on the Cubs system:

 

 

 

This system went downhill in a hurry, the result of a couple of big trades, lost draft picks, a few high picks that haven't worked out and a lot of injuries to pitching prospects they signed from Latin America.
 

1. Miguel Amaya, C (ranked No. 91)

2. Nico Hoerner, SS (Just missed)

3. Brailyn Marquez, LHP

4. Adbert Alzolay, RHP

5. Brennen Davis, OF

6. Cole Roederer, OF

7. Matt Swarmer, RHP

8. Aramis Ademan, SS

9. Oscar De La Cruz, RHP

10. Erich Uelmen, RHP

 

Brailyn Marquez is the latest in the Cubs' line of hard-throwing Latin American pitchers who have big upside but several development boxes to check before they could become potential starters. He is throwing his fastball up to 98 mph and will show a solid-average changeup with good action, although the pitch is inconsistent right now. At 6-foot-4 and about 225 pounds, he has filled out well since signing, and he has a starter's build. He comes from a slow, below-three-quarters delivery, and it's a bad arm action and release point for a curveball, so it's unsurprising that his is well below average and that left-handed hitters smacked him around in short-season ball last summer. I think he has to try a slider from that slot, and if that happens, then he could be a mid-rotation starter.

 

Adbert Alzolay was a top 100 guy a year ago, but he barely pitched in 2018 -- and not well -- before he was shut down with a lat injury in June. The Venezuelan right-hander has two-plus pitches in his fastball and curveball, with a changeup that might be average but that he must use more often so that he can develop more confidence in it. You could flip a coin between him and Marquez for me: Alzolay is further along, but he's smaller and might not have Marquez's upside or durability.

 

The Cubs had two second-round picks in 2018 and used them on Brennen Davis and Cole Roederer, both high school outfielders, taken in that order. Davis is a superb athlete who also starred in basketball, a 6-foot-4, 200-pound centerfielder who is a 70-grade runner and has tremendous makeup but needs to work on developing more consistent swing mechanics and improving his pitch recognition. Roederer is less of a pure athlete; he is an above-average runner with more present strength, but with a bit of a hitch in his swing that might prevent him from making hard contact. He has a better approach than Davis right now and also projects to stay in center, although the two might end up sharing time on their way up the ladder.

 

Matt Swarmer was the Cubs' minor league pitcher of the year in 2018, working with a fastball clocked up to 95 mph and an out-pitch slider, but he needs a better third pitch for lefties. After he was promoted to Double-A, he gave up seven homers to left-handed batters in 15 starts and allowed a .286/.322/.489 line to them. There are delivery questions too, as the funk in it that gives him deception against right-handed batters works against his timing. He is probably a right-on-right reliever, although there's a path to starting if he gets something to use for lefties.

 

Aramis Ademan's season was an outright disaster. He wasn't ready for High-A after just 29 games in Low-A the previous year, and he did nothing well for Myrtle Beach, hitting .207/.291/.273, rolling over constantly to the second baseman and fielding poorly enough that scouts were ready to move him off shortstop. He should repeat the level in 2019, and he almost certainly is better than what we saw; he has strength in his hands and wrists to be able to use the opposite field far more than he did last season.

 

Oscar De La Cruz should get an award for the number of times he has appeared on the Cubs' list, but when he hasn't been hurt, he has been suspended, missing 80 games last year for testing positive for a banned masking agent. When he returned, his stuff was there but his command was off, and the results showed it, with a 5.24 ERA in Double-A and the worst walk rate of his pro career. In theory, there's a mid-rotation starter in here somewhere, but call me when he gets through a full season.

 

Erich Uelmen has a heavy, heavy sinker at 90 to 94 mph that generated a huge ground ball rate in Low-A, although his control wavered a little after his promotion to High-A, and he needs something more than his below-average changeup for lefties, who killed him in the Carolina League (.338/.427/.492!). But that sinker is a legit 60-grade pitch, and it could make him a longtime back-end starter with the right complementary pitch.

 

Right-hander Alex Lange (11), one of the Cubs' two first-round picks in 2017, had a decent year as a starter in High-A, but his future is in the bullpen. He might have two-plus weapons in his curveball and changeup, with a small reverse platoon split this year because the change was so effective, but his fastball is true and his arm action has always pointed to a relief role. If he goes to the pen now, he could be in the majors quickly because his stuff is already there.

 

Tyson Miller (12), the Cubs' fourth-round pick in 2016, is a big, physical right-hander (standing 6-foot-5). He was taken as a bit of a projection college arm who has started to fill out. His four-seamer has natural cut to it, and he has shown he can throw it for strikes. He bumped up his strikeout rate even with a level jump last year. Nineteen-year-old Yovanny Cruz (13) opened some eyes in the AZL with a 92 to 95 mph fastball and big spin on a curveball that he throws for strikes, and he has a starter's delivery and arm action. He is a six-foot right-hander but is well put together.

 

Lefty Justin Steele (14) was throwing 92 to 95 mph velocity in the AFL to go with an average breaking ball and enough of a changeup that he might be a fifth starter for someone in the next year; he returned in July from August 2017 Tommy John surgery. Command lefty Keegan Thompson (15) is probably a fifth starter, more a competitor than a stuff guy but aggressive enough to succeed with just average stuff. Southpaw Brendon Little (16) still has the plus curveball and above-average velocity, but his command and control were down all year and hitters got to his fastball too often. He also might have to go to a bullpen role. Right-hander Thomas Hatch (17) was the Cubs' first pick in 2016, the year they didn't draft until the third round; he has shown velocity but hasn't gotten ground balls as expected and gets lit up by left-handed batters.

 

Right-hander Michael Rucker (18) is a fastball/curveball guy who might be good in a long relief role, throwing everything for strikes but whose stuff is a little short to start. Right-hander Duncan Robinson (19) is a kitchen-sink sort of guy, throwing five pitches, all for strikes, nothing plus, from a 6-foot-6 frame that makes him a little tougher to hit. He could be a fifth starter.

 

The Cubs tried to start outfielder Nelson Velazquez (20) in Low-A last year, but the 19-year-old struck out in 36 percent of his plate appearances in about five weeks. So the Cubs returned him to short-season ball, where he got his K rate under 30 percent and finished in the top 10 in the league in isolated slugging (ISO). He is an above-average runner, throws well, has real power and just has to show he can hit enough to get to it.

 

2019 impact: The Cubs could get bullpen help from internal candidates, but there are no prospects here ready for a lineup or rotation spot in 2019.

 

Sleeper: Davis had a lot of fans among area scouts in the Four Corners region last spring, guys who loved the combination of elite athletic ability and outstanding makeup. Cruz would be the deep sleeper, if we're looking two years out.

 

The fallen: Hard-throwing right-hander Jose Albertos, signed for $1.5 million in 2015, had the yips last year, walking 65 in 30⅓ innings across two levels. It's not impossible to come back from that, but it's incredibly difficult.