11-19-2021, 05:45 AM
Yeah, Jon Gray has added up as the ideal target:
1. No QO attached.
2. Power arm that can miss bats, and Jed has even made this kind of target clear (and I'm sure even more so after now adding Wade Miley to the rotation).
3. As Butch alluded to, there's *plenty* of upside. And he's even been better at Coors! But that's probably just the case of weirdness and a guy simply pitching better at home. And if so, maybe he's great at a home that isn't an arcade park. He's always reminded me of like Gerrit Cole lite, both in terms of profile and the whole idea of leaving a garbage organization for a better situation potentially unlocking more.
4. I doubt he's crazy expensive, and he's unlikely to produce too much risk for us. Like, the FanGraphs contract projections have him in the 3/39 to 3/47 range. Odds are he's at the very least solid (I mean he always has been and while pitching in the worst place imaginable). He also just turned 30 two weeks ago.
So, honestly, I'd be disappointed if the Cubs let somebody outbid them for him. He's unlikely to get 5+ years (and if he does, the AAV is probably more friendly than expected, at least), he's exactly what they need to be adding, and he has the upside to be a potential frontline guy. And they (should) have *plenty* of money to spend on shorter-term things, especially for players that don't have QOs attached. Like, I get them being more careful for the $150+ million deals, the 5+ year stuff, the guys with QOs, etc. He's unlikely to have any of these things and fills a huge need- and while not having to trade from the farm depth to get him.
1. No QO attached.
2. Power arm that can miss bats, and Jed has even made this kind of target clear (and I'm sure even more so after now adding Wade Miley to the rotation).
3. As Butch alluded to, there's *plenty* of upside. And he's even been better at Coors! But that's probably just the case of weirdness and a guy simply pitching better at home. And if so, maybe he's great at a home that isn't an arcade park. He's always reminded me of like Gerrit Cole lite, both in terms of profile and the whole idea of leaving a garbage organization for a better situation potentially unlocking more.
4. I doubt he's crazy expensive, and he's unlikely to produce too much risk for us. Like, the FanGraphs contract projections have him in the 3/39 to 3/47 range. Odds are he's at the very least solid (I mean he always has been and while pitching in the worst place imaginable). He also just turned 30 two weeks ago.
So, honestly, I'd be disappointed if the Cubs let somebody outbid them for him. He's unlikely to get 5+ years (and if he does, the AAV is probably more friendly than expected, at least), he's exactly what they need to be adding, and he has the upside to be a potential frontline guy. And they (should) have *plenty* of money to spend on shorter-term things, especially for players that don't have QOs attached. Like, I get them being more careful for the $150+ million deals, the 5+ year stuff, the guys with QOs, etc. He's unlikely to have any of these things and fills a huge need- and while not having to trade from the farm depth to get him.
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