01-06-2009, 12:23 PM
Are we better than last year? Let's look at it more analytically......
C Soto- will he put up the same numbers as last year? Possibly, but I could see a slight falloff personally.....
1B Lee- I think he is what he is at this point....A .300ish, 20 homer guy.
2B DeRosa/Fontenot vs. Fontenot/Miles I see Fontenot as a question mark as an everyday player and certainly don't see Miles outproducing either of DeRosa or Fontenot, so this is a downgrade for me.
SS Theriot- I think he'll put up about the same numbers myself
3B Ramirez- I could actually see him improving on last year's numbers.
LF Soriano- If he stays healthy, he's an upgrade by default over 2/3 of a season from him.
CF Edmonds/Johnson vs. Fukudome/Johnson I see this as a BIG downgrade myself. Our CF production last year was phenomenal and I definitely don't see Fuk doing what Edmonds did and I doubt Reed has as good a year as last either.
RF Fukudome vs. Bradley Obviously an upgrade, but we need 120 games out of Bradley for this to be the case.
Bench Ward/Johnson/Fontenot/Cedeno/Blanco vs. Hoffpauir/Miles/Bako/Johnson/Gathright
I would still like to see us add a power right handed bat for the bench, but I guess this is close to a wash.
SO, to me the lineup is downgraded in CF, upgraded in RF, probably about the same and I expect slightly worse seasons from Soto and 2B while Soriano and Aramis could pick up the slack some. Lineup basically is the same production but set up with better balance for the playoffs, especially if we add a righty power bat for the bench.
I like the lineup a tad more than last year.
Rotation
Z- I think he is what he is and at this point, I consider him an extremely solid 2. Sorry, but he's not what he was a few years ago.
Dempster- I think we'll see about a point higher ERA than last year.
Lilly- I see him as an upper 3 lower 4 ERA guy. We're lucky to have him as far as I'm concerned.
Hill/Lieber/Marshall vs. Harden- HUGE upgrade obviously, as long as we get 20 starts out of him. If he pitches a full season(and it's a contract year for him) he's an ace with Cy Young capability
Marquis vs. Marshall/Shark/Guzman- I see this as an upgrade too honestly. Not that Marquis was a bad 5th guy by any means, but the upside is there with any of these guys, it's just a matter of finding the right one.
The staff is in better shape than it was at this point last year for sure.
Bullpen
Long guys- Lieber and Gallagher vs. Guzman and Gaudin- Again this is a wash for me, possibly an upgrade even.
Middle relief- Wuertz and Howry vs. Vizcaino and Wuertz- No change here either.
Lefties- Cotts vs. Cotts- no change at all.
Set up guys- Marmol/Shark vs. Gregg/Shark This is the biggest downgrade we've got on the team as far as I'm concerned. We've been spoiled bigtime with Marmol in the setup role and I cringe assuming he's moving to closer. I think he's more valuable where he's been at. I think Gregg is an averagish back of the pen guy myself. Huge downgrade for me, I'd rather see him closing as sad as that sounds.....He's still a downgrade from Wood, but much less of one than from Marmol.
Closer- Wood vs. Marmol Is it an upgrade? Yeah, probably. Assuming Marmol doesn't get spooked by the 9th inning anyway. But, as I said, I'd rather have Gregg close. Unless we still will use Marmol for more than an inning when the situation calls for it.....
Bullpen has been downgraded some.
So, I think we're probably a little better off than we were last year, before we got Harden. I'm perfectly fine going into 2009 with this team, but I definitely see us adding a SP before then, but I see more of a 4-5 guy than an ace. I just don't see Peavy happening at this point and time. I want a righty power bat for the bench and I'd call it an offseason......I don't see anyone else from the Central making any moves that scare me, so that makes this offseason even more of a success.
C Soto- will he put up the same numbers as last year? Possibly, but I could see a slight falloff personally.....
1B Lee- I think he is what he is at this point....A .300ish, 20 homer guy.
2B DeRosa/Fontenot vs. Fontenot/Miles I see Fontenot as a question mark as an everyday player and certainly don't see Miles outproducing either of DeRosa or Fontenot, so this is a downgrade for me.
SS Theriot- I think he'll put up about the same numbers myself
3B Ramirez- I could actually see him improving on last year's numbers.
LF Soriano- If he stays healthy, he's an upgrade by default over 2/3 of a season from him.
CF Edmonds/Johnson vs. Fukudome/Johnson I see this as a BIG downgrade myself. Our CF production last year was phenomenal and I definitely don't see Fuk doing what Edmonds did and I doubt Reed has as good a year as last either.
RF Fukudome vs. Bradley Obviously an upgrade, but we need 120 games out of Bradley for this to be the case.
Bench Ward/Johnson/Fontenot/Cedeno/Blanco vs. Hoffpauir/Miles/Bako/Johnson/Gathright
I would still like to see us add a power right handed bat for the bench, but I guess this is close to a wash.
SO, to me the lineup is downgraded in CF, upgraded in RF, probably about the same and I expect slightly worse seasons from Soto and 2B while Soriano and Aramis could pick up the slack some. Lineup basically is the same production but set up with better balance for the playoffs, especially if we add a righty power bat for the bench.
I like the lineup a tad more than last year.
Rotation
Z- I think he is what he is and at this point, I consider him an extremely solid 2. Sorry, but he's not what he was a few years ago.
Dempster- I think we'll see about a point higher ERA than last year.
Lilly- I see him as an upper 3 lower 4 ERA guy. We're lucky to have him as far as I'm concerned.
Hill/Lieber/Marshall vs. Harden- HUGE upgrade obviously, as long as we get 20 starts out of him. If he pitches a full season(and it's a contract year for him) he's an ace with Cy Young capability
Marquis vs. Marshall/Shark/Guzman- I see this as an upgrade too honestly. Not that Marquis was a bad 5th guy by any means, but the upside is there with any of these guys, it's just a matter of finding the right one.
The staff is in better shape than it was at this point last year for sure.
Bullpen
Long guys- Lieber and Gallagher vs. Guzman and Gaudin- Again this is a wash for me, possibly an upgrade even.
Middle relief- Wuertz and Howry vs. Vizcaino and Wuertz- No change here either.
Lefties- Cotts vs. Cotts- no change at all.
Set up guys- Marmol/Shark vs. Gregg/Shark This is the biggest downgrade we've got on the team as far as I'm concerned. We've been spoiled bigtime with Marmol in the setup role and I cringe assuming he's moving to closer. I think he's more valuable where he's been at. I think Gregg is an averagish back of the pen guy myself. Huge downgrade for me, I'd rather see him closing as sad as that sounds.....He's still a downgrade from Wood, but much less of one than from Marmol.
Closer- Wood vs. Marmol Is it an upgrade? Yeah, probably. Assuming Marmol doesn't get spooked by the 9th inning anyway. But, as I said, I'd rather have Gregg close. Unless we still will use Marmol for more than an inning when the situation calls for it.....
Bullpen has been downgraded some.
So, I think we're probably a little better off than we were last year, before we got Harden. I'm perfectly fine going into 2009 with this team, but I definitely see us adding a SP before then, but I see more of a 4-5 guy than an ace. I just don't see Peavy happening at this point and time. I want a righty power bat for the bench and I'd call it an offseason......I don't see anyone else from the Central making any moves that scare me, so that makes this offseason even more of a success.