Zambrano

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=113747:date=Sep 8 2010, 02:24 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 8 2010, 02:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=113745:date=Sep 8 2010, 02:19 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Sep 8 2010, 02:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=113742:date=Sep 8 2010, 02:15 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 8 2010, 02:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->BT -- you're arguing against a point I never made.

<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->If given the opportunity to pitch through his struggles, I feel pretty confident in saying that Z's numbers would be right where they should be at this point in the season -- and better than Silva's, Gorz's, Wells', and maybe Dempster's.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This is what I said.

IF given the opportunity (which he wasn't given)...Z's numbers WOULD BE right where they should be at this point in the season...

I'm not saying what you're seeing now is the finished product. I'm saying that IF he were given the opportunity to pitch through his early season struggles (which is what pretty much every proven starting pitcher would be given the opportunity to do), his numbers would be pretty close to his career averages. Obviously, this isn't something I can prove because we can't rewind the season and try again.
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Based on what? As I've shown you, since coming back, and other than ERA, Zambrano is STILL pitching pretty badly. What gives you the idea that he would have been fine if he had just been left alone?
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Unless you think Zambrano is hurt, why would you think his numbers *wouldn't* look more like his career averages and more like his 4 starts in April?
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Because I'm not entirely certain that he is isn't "done" being an impact pitcher. I would not have been surprised if he was a stud this year, but I won't be surprised if the best we get out of him is 3rd starter numbers from here on out. I didn't think he would be as bad as he has been this year, but I do think the amount of innings he has pitched in his career is going to catch up to him. His WHIP last year was almost 1.4, which isn't the catastrophe it is this year, but it's definitely not something you are looking for out of your #1 starter.

More to the point, if he was bad before the layoff, and has been equally bad SINCE the layoff, how can you blame the layoff for anything? There may be any number of factors contributing to how badly he has pitched (hidden injury, family issues, etc), but from a statistical point of view, it's difficult for me to see how the layoff is one of them.