08-02-2010, 09:03 AM
Excerpt about the Cardinals ineptitude from the Joe Sheehan newsletter I subscribe to:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->It's the Cardinals' side of this deal that leaves me cold. Just on talent, it's a terrible move, an above-average hitter for a below-average pitcher. Moreover, it's not as if the Cardinals have a great offense and a terrible rotation. The offense is good mostly because it has three fantastic hitters; most days, the Cards start at least three and sometimes five holes, and trading away Ludwick hurts them. Jon Jay's debut month appears to have convinced them that he's a capable replacement for Ludwick; nothing in his track record indicates that to be the case, but rather, that Jay is a fourth outfielder who just had the month of his life.
The idea that the Cardinals had to add a starter is misguided. It would be one thing to add Roy Oswalt, who would start the third game of a postseason series. It's another to trade your starting right fielder for someone who walks in as your fourth starter and might be your fifth come the Division Series. Over 11 starts, Westbrook is maybe, maybe, 5-10 runs better than some combination of Blake Hawksworth and Jeff Suppan. Maybe. The dropoff from Ludwick to Jay and Randy Winn will perhaps double that. This was a rare trade that actively made a contending team worse because they misevaluated both their needs and their talent.
By the way, the idea that the Cardinals made this trade with an eye towards 2011's payroll is ludicrous, the same the idea that the Phillies traded Cliff Lee to bolster their farm system was. No team in the middle of a close division race has any business thinking about next year's payroll. That can be address in any number of ways over the winter, up to and including trading or even non-tendering the arb-eligible Ludwick. I'd add that the Cardinals, with a new taxpayer-funded ballpark, years of success and good media deals, shouldn't have one eye on the bankroll when they make baseball decisions. (In the big picture, the screwed-up MLB revenue-sharing agreement does screw them, a small-market team that maximizes revenue then has to share it with failing teams in bigger markets.)
The Cardinals went out and made themselves worse yesterday. That may be the biggest surprise of all.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And analysis on the Theriot/Lilly trade:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->As with the Indians and Westbrook, the Cubs wanted to get something for Ted Lilly's Expiring Contract. They did well for themselves, getting Blake DeWitt, who has followed in Andy LaRoche's footsteps as a Dodgers infield prospect who never quite backs up his walk rate with hits and power in the majors. Just 24, and improving at second base, DeWitt could win this trade all by himself for the Cubs, although getting Tim Wallach's son Brett, a third-round pick last year who has been picking on the teenagers in the Midwest League (92 K/84 IP), also helps.
If nothing else, by completing this trade the Dodgers ended the Manny Ramirez rumors. They've picked a direction -- contending -- and went with it, later trading two more young players for 20 innings of Octavio Dotel. Lilly is a clear upgrade over the mix of #5 starters that has been killing the Dodgers ever since Jon Ely came crashing back to Earth, worth maybe a win-and-a-half down the stretch. You can give back the half-win with the dropoff from DeWitt to Ryan Theriot, who hits singles and does little else, although he'll likely become a fan favorite for his scrappiness. This trade doesn't make a huge difference for the Dodgers, who are seven games out and chasing two teams, three if the Rockies pull it together.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This newsletter is great if you have an extra $20 to spend. It's well worth it.
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->It's the Cardinals' side of this deal that leaves me cold. Just on talent, it's a terrible move, an above-average hitter for a below-average pitcher. Moreover, it's not as if the Cardinals have a great offense and a terrible rotation. The offense is good mostly because it has three fantastic hitters; most days, the Cards start at least three and sometimes five holes, and trading away Ludwick hurts them. Jon Jay's debut month appears to have convinced them that he's a capable replacement for Ludwick; nothing in his track record indicates that to be the case, but rather, that Jay is a fourth outfielder who just had the month of his life.
The idea that the Cardinals had to add a starter is misguided. It would be one thing to add Roy Oswalt, who would start the third game of a postseason series. It's another to trade your starting right fielder for someone who walks in as your fourth starter and might be your fifth come the Division Series. Over 11 starts, Westbrook is maybe, maybe, 5-10 runs better than some combination of Blake Hawksworth and Jeff Suppan. Maybe. The dropoff from Ludwick to Jay and Randy Winn will perhaps double that. This was a rare trade that actively made a contending team worse because they misevaluated both their needs and their talent.
By the way, the idea that the Cardinals made this trade with an eye towards 2011's payroll is ludicrous, the same the idea that the Phillies traded Cliff Lee to bolster their farm system was. No team in the middle of a close division race has any business thinking about next year's payroll. That can be address in any number of ways over the winter, up to and including trading or even non-tendering the arb-eligible Ludwick. I'd add that the Cardinals, with a new taxpayer-funded ballpark, years of success and good media deals, shouldn't have one eye on the bankroll when they make baseball decisions. (In the big picture, the screwed-up MLB revenue-sharing agreement does screw them, a small-market team that maximizes revenue then has to share it with failing teams in bigger markets.)
The Cardinals went out and made themselves worse yesterday. That may be the biggest surprise of all.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And analysis on the Theriot/Lilly trade:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->As with the Indians and Westbrook, the Cubs wanted to get something for Ted Lilly's Expiring Contract. They did well for themselves, getting Blake DeWitt, who has followed in Andy LaRoche's footsteps as a Dodgers infield prospect who never quite backs up his walk rate with hits and power in the majors. Just 24, and improving at second base, DeWitt could win this trade all by himself for the Cubs, although getting Tim Wallach's son Brett, a third-round pick last year who has been picking on the teenagers in the Midwest League (92 K/84 IP), also helps.
If nothing else, by completing this trade the Dodgers ended the Manny Ramirez rumors. They've picked a direction -- contending -- and went with it, later trading two more young players for 20 innings of Octavio Dotel. Lilly is a clear upgrade over the mix of #5 starters that has been killing the Dodgers ever since Jon Ely came crashing back to Earth, worth maybe a win-and-a-half down the stretch. You can give back the half-win with the dropoff from DeWitt to Ryan Theriot, who hits singles and does little else, although he'll likely become a fan favorite for his scrappiness. This trade doesn't make a huge difference for the Dodgers, who are seven games out and chasing two teams, three if the Rockies pull it together.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This newsletter is great if you have an extra $20 to spend. It's well worth it.