07-26-2010, 05:14 PM
<!--quoteo(post=108062:date=Jul 26 2010, 03:50 PM:name=vitaminB)-->QUOTE (vitaminB @ Jul 26 2010, 03:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=107960:date=Jul 26 2010, 01:39 PM:name=veryzer)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (veryzer @ Jul 26 2010, 01:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=107949:date=Jul 26 2010, 11:35 AM:name=vitaminB)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (vitaminB @ Jul 26 2010, 11:35 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=107572:date=Jul 23 2010, 03:26 PM:name=veryzer)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (veryzer @ Jul 23 2010, 03:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->1. Zambrano struggled early in the season and was banished to the bullpen despite the fact that he's been a solid pitcher his entire career.
2. Gorzallaney has not been a solid pitcher his entire career, Silva was coming off back to back terrible seasons, Wells was in his second year. They stayed in the rotation.
3. Zambrano has a history of volitility.
4. Despite the fact Zambrano has gotten progressively worse thoughout his career, he's still been one of the best pitchers in the NL.
Synopsis: Zambrano earned the right, through quality and quantity of work, to be able to work his problems out early in the season. Couple that with the fact he's completely insane, and you have to wonder what the fuck was going through Lou and Hendry's minds when they made the retarded decision to put him in the bullpen. Hendry and Lou took a bad situation and blew it to hell.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Here are the ERAs of the five starters at the time Lilly came back: 2.49 2.60 2.40 0.95 and <b>7.45</b>.
What kind of message does that send to the rest of the team? It doesn't matter if you perform well. If you make more money, we're going to stick with you? Which is essentially the way things usually work, and we all complain about it. See Fuk getting starts over Colvin, etc.
Once again, at the time we had been through about 3 or 4 8th inning guys IIRC. Throw in the fact that Zambrano's stuff was best suited for relief work and it made sense to me at the time. That's all I'm saying.
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What are the career ERA's? What were the ERA's of those same pitchers the year before? When did Lily come back, May? Was that enough time to shitcan their best pitcher over the last 6 years?
What kind of message did the Cubs send the team? That even though you've been an all star multiple times, the opening day starter multiple times, just thrown a no-hitter less than two years ago, and been one of the top 5 pitchers in the National League, we're gonna demote you if you don't get off to a good start? Is that the kind of message we need to send?
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Honestly, you think Zambrano is/was untouchable? That his track record elevates him to the status of a superstar somehow? I understand he's being paid like one. But that contract was about potential, and he has not lived up to that potential. It's questionable that he ever will.
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It isn't that he is/was untouchable. It's about the probability of longer term success. Zambrano has shown year after year that he will put up solid numbers. He's earned the benefit of the doubt and he's earned a little breathing room if he starts the season out slowly. You don't just yank a guy like Zambrano from the rotation because he had a couple of bad starts in April. Especially when you have:
- Silva -- who was literally the *worst* pitcher in baseball the previous two seasons (2008 ERA: 6.46, 2009 ERA: 8.60)
- Gorz, who hasn't proven shit (2008 ERA: 6.66, 2009 ERA: 5.55), and
- Wells -- who put up good numbers in his rookie season in the rotation (170 major league innings).
You let Zambrano (ERAs from 2002 until 2009: 3.66, 3.11, 2.75, 3.26, 3.41, 3.95, 3.91, 3.77) ride it out and you assume that his numbers will improve to his career averages. You assume Gorz and Silva will begin to regress to their career averages as well. And Wells doesn't have a long enough track record to project very far out.
And for all the talk of him regressing, take another look at his numbers. His stats in 2007, 2008, and 2009 are very similar -- other than IP. And he somehow managed to win 18 games and get 5th in the Cy Young voting in 2007.
If I were Zambrano, and I had been the Cubs' most consistent starter for the past seven years, I'd be pretty fucking pissed if I got thrown into the bullpen for a bad start to the season. Any other starter with his track record would have been allowed to work through it.
2. Gorzallaney has not been a solid pitcher his entire career, Silva was coming off back to back terrible seasons, Wells was in his second year. They stayed in the rotation.
3. Zambrano has a history of volitility.
4. Despite the fact Zambrano has gotten progressively worse thoughout his career, he's still been one of the best pitchers in the NL.
Synopsis: Zambrano earned the right, through quality and quantity of work, to be able to work his problems out early in the season. Couple that with the fact he's completely insane, and you have to wonder what the fuck was going through Lou and Hendry's minds when they made the retarded decision to put him in the bullpen. Hendry and Lou took a bad situation and blew it to hell.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Here are the ERAs of the five starters at the time Lilly came back: 2.49 2.60 2.40 0.95 and <b>7.45</b>.
What kind of message does that send to the rest of the team? It doesn't matter if you perform well. If you make more money, we're going to stick with you? Which is essentially the way things usually work, and we all complain about it. See Fuk getting starts over Colvin, etc.
Once again, at the time we had been through about 3 or 4 8th inning guys IIRC. Throw in the fact that Zambrano's stuff was best suited for relief work and it made sense to me at the time. That's all I'm saying.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
What are the career ERA's? What were the ERA's of those same pitchers the year before? When did Lily come back, May? Was that enough time to shitcan their best pitcher over the last 6 years?
What kind of message did the Cubs send the team? That even though you've been an all star multiple times, the opening day starter multiple times, just thrown a no-hitter less than two years ago, and been one of the top 5 pitchers in the National League, we're gonna demote you if you don't get off to a good start? Is that the kind of message we need to send?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Honestly, you think Zambrano is/was untouchable? That his track record elevates him to the status of a superstar somehow? I understand he's being paid like one. But that contract was about potential, and he has not lived up to that potential. It's questionable that he ever will.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It isn't that he is/was untouchable. It's about the probability of longer term success. Zambrano has shown year after year that he will put up solid numbers. He's earned the benefit of the doubt and he's earned a little breathing room if he starts the season out slowly. You don't just yank a guy like Zambrano from the rotation because he had a couple of bad starts in April. Especially when you have:
- Silva -- who was literally the *worst* pitcher in baseball the previous two seasons (2008 ERA: 6.46, 2009 ERA: 8.60)
- Gorz, who hasn't proven shit (2008 ERA: 6.66, 2009 ERA: 5.55), and
- Wells -- who put up good numbers in his rookie season in the rotation (170 major league innings).
You let Zambrano (ERAs from 2002 until 2009: 3.66, 3.11, 2.75, 3.26, 3.41, 3.95, 3.91, 3.77) ride it out and you assume that his numbers will improve to his career averages. You assume Gorz and Silva will begin to regress to their career averages as well. And Wells doesn't have a long enough track record to project very far out.
And for all the talk of him regressing, take another look at his numbers. His stats in 2007, 2008, and 2009 are very similar -- other than IP. And he somehow managed to win 18 games and get 5th in the Cy Young voting in 2007.
If I were Zambrano, and I had been the Cubs' most consistent starter for the past seven years, I'd be pretty fucking pissed if I got thrown into the bullpen for a bad start to the season. Any other starter with his track record would have been allowed to work through it.