07-23-2010, 04:03 PM
For those that keep talking about how Zambrano has been fine until this year, why was he rated as the 67th overall starting pitcher by ESPN coming into this year? His was their preseason outlook for him:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->2010 Outlook: Now 28 years old, Zambrano's career (predictably) has been trending downward the past couple seasons, right at a time in which one might think he should be offering fantasy owners premium statistics. Probably because of years of hefty innings totals and bloated pitch counts, especially during the Dusty Baker era (he averaged 108.9 pitches per start from 2003-07), Zambrano's stuff has lost some of its luster the past two seasons. Consider that his average fastball velocity has declined every season since 2004 (from 92.9 mph then to 91.2 in 2009), and he threw fewer fastballs than ever last season. Take into account also that his innings per start has declined every season since 2005 (from 6.77 then to 6.05 in 2009), and he's shifting from more of a ground ball pitcher to almost neutral, which again hints that his pitches have lost some of their zip. Zambrano also took 23 percent of his total batters faced to three-ball counts, 28th-most among pitchers with 1,500-plus pitches thrown, according to Inside Edge. That stat hints that he's almost afraid to challenge hitters these days. Oh, and for the third time in the past four years, he averaged more than four walks per nine innings. Despite that, Zambrano finished with a sub-four ERA for the eighth consecutive season, but those days might soon be coming to a close. There's a steep downside with him because of injury and declining performance, but don't avoid him entirely. Don't consider him a trusted part of your rotation, either.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->2010 Outlook: Now 28 years old, Zambrano's career (predictably) has been trending downward the past couple seasons, right at a time in which one might think he should be offering fantasy owners premium statistics. Probably because of years of hefty innings totals and bloated pitch counts, especially during the Dusty Baker era (he averaged 108.9 pitches per start from 2003-07), Zambrano's stuff has lost some of its luster the past two seasons. Consider that his average fastball velocity has declined every season since 2004 (from 92.9 mph then to 91.2 in 2009), and he threw fewer fastballs than ever last season. Take into account also that his innings per start has declined every season since 2005 (from 6.77 then to 6.05 in 2009), and he's shifting from more of a ground ball pitcher to almost neutral, which again hints that his pitches have lost some of their zip. Zambrano also took 23 percent of his total batters faced to three-ball counts, 28th-most among pitchers with 1,500-plus pitches thrown, according to Inside Edge. That stat hints that he's almost afraid to challenge hitters these days. Oh, and for the third time in the past four years, he averaged more than four walks per nine innings. Despite that, Zambrano finished with a sub-four ERA for the eighth consecutive season, but those days might soon be coming to a close. There's a steep downside with him because of injury and declining performance, but don't avoid him entirely. Don't consider him a trusted part of your rotation, either.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->