Fire Lou

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=105849:date=Jul 16 2010, 02:44 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Jul 16 2010, 02:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think Scarey and BT's assertion that most big FA contracts are going to be bad deals, and that the teams<i> know</i> that going in, is a side effect of being a Cub fan in the Hendry era, not a rational take on the FA industry.
An easy way to look at it: look at all the "milestone" marker contracts in recent baseball history.
The first FA deal for a half-million: Reggie
1 mil-Nolan Ryan
3- Rickey, before his peak
5-?Maddux to Braves
6-Boby Bonilla (bad deal)
7-Bonds to SF

etc.
Manny's 160M deal paid off, the Yanks haven't complained about Jeter's 189M deal, and A-Rod certainly had a magnificent decade after signing his 10-year deal. Those are the 3 biggest deals ever.
I'd say that history has shown that a big contract <i>doesn't</i> mean catastrophe, as long as you don't do something blatantly stupid (Zito, Soriano).<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I'm sorry KB, hand picking a bunch of Hall of Famers doesn't really prove anything.

Let's do an analogy.

Let's say ten years from now, I have in my posession a rock. This particular rock was used to bludgeon Jim Hendry to death after a disappointing 2010 campaign by an at-large, unknown, disgruntled fan.

Now, baseball antique experts have appraised it to be worth $500. However, I bring it to a silent auction that happens to have yourself, veryzer, Ruby, and jstraw in attendence and you all value the rock very much... because it's a piece of baseball history.

Anyway, if you know each other and know that each of you wants that rock, what are you going to bid on it? It's valued at $500, are you actually going to bid $500? My guess is if you really want that rock, you're going to go over the valued price. THAT is how I see most valued free agents. Yes, you could buy that rock for $1000and it turns out it was also used to bludgeon Lou Piniella to death as well causing it's value to increase to $1500 (obvious analogy to a Hall of Fame player), but in terms of baseball free agency, more times than not you will just pay that $1000 and get a $500 rock.

Consequently, this is big reason why I am such a proponent in building teams through the farm.