Hendry's Failures...

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=101427:date=Jun 15 2010, 08:57 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Jun 15 2010, 08:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101389:date=Jun 14 2010, 11:53 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 14 2010, 11:53 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101381:date=Jun 14 2010, 10:02 PM:name=Ace)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Ace @ Jun 14 2010, 10:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Maybe I misunderstand the question, but I could list like 10 poor free agent signings/re-signings without giving it a ton of thought.

Let's keep the game going. Jason Marquis.

Now you.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


This is a great example. I'll bet a lot of guys agree with you on this. And I don't know how else to put it, but you are wrong.

Marquis was signed for a total of 21 million dollars for 3 years. We bitched and moaned and pissed and screamed (I'm sure I was one of those screaming as well). Marquis proceeded to "earn" over 32 million during those 3 years. In every single year of that deal he earned more money than he was paid. Even if you don't agree with Fangraphs valuation, it's almost impossible to argue that this was a bad signing. This is a pro-hendry argument, not an anti one.

I will admit that I missed Aaron Miles though. For some reason the spreadsheet I found on Hendry didn't include that one.
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Hey BeeT, what about Henry Blanco, Scott Eyre and Bob Howry? How do they fare in the Fan Graphs data? I'd imagine Scott and Bob "earned" their money early in the contract and failed to earn in later in the contract.

Furthermore, I don't think we can omit Zambrano, Soriano, and MB from this discussion because I'm sure they fare the worst in the Fan Graphs data. They most definitely have "earned" way less than their salary.
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with the exception of Eyre, fangraphs disagrees with you, and even Eyre doesn't really prove your point.

The problem is (most) everyone simply looks at the batting component for value. Blanco was BETTER than a replacement player, and in 3 of the 4 years of his contract, met or greatly exceeded his contract. His contract is a "win" for Hendry, unless you think his miserable 2007 somehow ruins his 2006 or 2005 (since he actually had negative value that year).

Howry, same thing. He was very good his first 2 years with the Cubs, easily outearning what he was paid. His last season he was terrible and overpaid.

However, if you look at both his and Eyre's 2005, neither would be considered a replacement level player. Both of them had very good 2005's, earning over 5 million in value. Putting aside the logic of paying guys a lot of money for middle relief (which I am actually not a very big fan of), the fact is, when Hendry was deciding to sign these guys, they had their 2005 performances as their leverage. So their market value was set by 2005. You could certainly make an argument that you shouldn't ever sign a MR coming off a career year, and I'd pretty much agree, but the fact is Hendry had to pay these guys what he paid, or someone else would. It basically worked with Howry, and it didn't with Eyre.

Bringing up Zambrano and Soriano is pointless for at least 2 reasons. They could not, in any shape or form, be considered "replacement players". Also, as most fans do, you are concentrating on the "failures", and are taking the clear wins like Lilly and Dempster (and even Marquis) into account.

Even worse? For the most part, Zambrano is about even with the earned/pay scale, and outside of 2009 Soriano has actually been a bargain. He destroyed that scale in 2007-2008. He was terrible last year, but if he continues to play the same this year, he will earn his salary again.