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<!--quoteo(post=81611:date=Mar 4 2010, 06:43 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 4 2010, 06:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81603:date=Mar 4 2010, 06:25 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Mar 4 2010, 06:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81587:date=Mar 4 2010, 05:13 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 4 2010, 05:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81581:date=Mar 4 2010, 05:01 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Mar 4 2010, 05:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just for example...in 2008, MLB batting average was .264. For every guy that hit .290, 20 guys hit .238? Really?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
As I admitted in my first rebuttal to your questioning of his statement, perhaps the math isn't exact, but are you really going to argue with the basic premise? (That superstars are really hard to come by, and decent players are a dime-a-dozen, and can often be easily replaced by a good AAA guy, or a decent platoon?)
Remember the Angels GM who, when unloading Nolan Ryan, said "He went 16-14 last year. Big deal, we'll replace him with two guys who'll go 8-7."
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No. What I'm going to argue is that 10% over league average is not a superstar and that the discrepancy between 10% over and 10% under is nowhere near 20 to 1.
And there's nothing for you to 'admit." It's on James...he's a (perhaps THE) stats guy. He doesn't get to be hyperbolic about numbers like that. I say that as one that likes Bill James a lot.
And Butcher, I think you contradicted yourself. I think you just explained the main reason that there aren't 20 .238 hitters for every .290 hitters.
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Straw, I really have to agree with Butcher (and Bill James) on this. Even in your own example, .290 MLB hitters are <i>not</i> easy to come by. For example, only 2 Cubs hit over .290 last year, and they're, by far, our 2 best hitters (D Lee, Aramis).
Yet there TONS of guys who can hit .238. In fact, we probably have 6-7 guys in AAA who could hit .238 if given the AB's, which is exactly Bill James' point...decent, mediocre players are a dime-a-dozen, so paying them big money is a complete waste of resources. (see Grabow, John).
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I don't think we disagree about anything substantial. I'm just trying to make the point that while the Cubs had TWO players hitting 10% or more above average, they didn't have anything remotely like FORTY players hitting 10% below average because there is no room in the majors for that many dime-a-dozen hitters.
I can use hyperbolic exaggeration to make a general point because I'm a bozo on the Internet. Bill James is a guy I expect to tell me EXACTLY how many guys in the majors hit 10% over and under league average.
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<!--quoteo(post=81545:date=Mar 4 2010, 03:35 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 4 2010, 03:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81445:date=Mar 4 2010, 07:06 AM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Mar 4 2010, 07:06 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->minor-league stats are an excellent indicator of how a player will play in MLB<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No.
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Bill James may be a sarcastic ass who knows absolutely nothing about baseball, but just for the heck of it, read as far down as #1:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->A Bill James Primer
"What I wanted to write about... is a very basic question. Of all the studies I have done over the last 25 years, what have I learned? What is the relevance of sabermetric knowledge to the decision making process of a team? If I were employed by a major-league team, what are the basic things that I know from the research I have done which would be of use to me in helping that team?"
1.Minor league batting statistics will predict major league batting performance with essentially the same reliability as previous major league statistics.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That doesn't say anything remotely close to this: "minor-league stats are an excellent indicator of how a player will play in MLB."
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<!--quoteo(post=81581:date=Mar 4 2010, 06:01 PM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ Mar 4 2010, 06:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just for example...in 2008, MLB batting average was .264. For every guy that hit .290, 20 guys hit .238? Really?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Um, guh? Of course not - because most of those 20 guys don't make it to the bigs. But you better believe they're out there. And there's 40 more who are worse than them.
Are you really going to argue that professional baseball talent is not pyramidal? Seems like a profoundly duh point to me.
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<!--quoteo(post=81619:date=Mar 4 2010, 07:23 PM:name=Ace)-->QUOTE (Ace @ Mar 4 2010, 07:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81581:date=Mar 4 2010, 06:01 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Mar 4 2010, 06:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just for example...in 2008, MLB batting average was .264. For every guy that hit .290, 20 guys hit .238? Really?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Um, guh? Of course not - because most of those 20 guys don't make it to the bigs. But you better believe they're out there. And there's 40 more who are worse than them.
Are you really going to argue that professional baseball talent is not pyramidal? Seems like a profoundly duh point to me.
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I don't think I'm arguing that.
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<!--quoteo(post=81620:date=Mar 4 2010, 08:26 PM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ Mar 4 2010, 08:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81619:date=Mar 4 2010, 07:23 PM:name=Ace)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Ace @ Mar 4 2010, 07:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81581:date=Mar 4 2010, 06:01 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Mar 4 2010, 06:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just for example...in 2008, MLB batting average was .264. For every guy that hit .290, 20 guys hit .238? Really?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Um, guh? Of course not - because most of those 20 guys don't make it to the bigs. But you better believe they're out there. And there's 40 more who are worse than them.
Are you really going to argue that professional baseball talent is not pyramidal? Seems like a profoundly duh point to me.
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I don't think I'm arguing that.
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Oh. Ok.
We cool.
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Ok, I now see that James isn't claiming that thos 20 players are actually in the majors. But it's inferred because major league hitting and minor league hitting aren't the same thing.
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<!--quoteo(post=81622:date=Mar 4 2010, 08:27 PM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ Mar 4 2010, 08:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Ok, I now see that James isn't claiming that thos 20 players are actually in the majors. But it's inferred because major league hitting and minor league hitting aren't the same thing.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You infer. He implies.
(snip snap)
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<!--quoteo(post=81623:date=Mar 4 2010, 07:31 PM:name=Ace)-->QUOTE (Ace @ Mar 4 2010, 07:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81622:date=Mar 4 2010, 08:27 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Mar 4 2010, 08:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Ok, I now see that James isn't claiming that thos 20 players are actually in the majors. But it's inferred because major league hitting and minor league hitting aren't the same thing.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You infer. He implies.
(snip snap)
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Yes. It's inferred...by me. [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/asshole.gif[/img]
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<!--quoteo(post=81613:date=Mar 4 2010, 07:03 PM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Mar 4 2010, 07:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81545:date=Mar 4 2010, 03:35 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 4 2010, 03:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81445:date=Mar 4 2010, 07:06 AM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Mar 4 2010, 07:06 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->minor-league stats are an excellent indicator of how a player will play in MLB<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--><!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->1.Minor league batting statistics will predict major league batting performance with essentially the same reliability as previous major league statistics.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That doesn't say anything remotely close to this: "minor-league stats are an excellent indicator of how a player will play in MLB."
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It seems extremely close, to me. James' is comparing MiLB stats (as an indicator for future MLB stats) to a guy's previous MLB stats (as the same indicator).
Isn't that how we do it? By looking at their stats alone, I would predict that Pujols and Mauer will probably put up similar numbers in 2010. Justin Upton is about 20 or 21, but they just gave him a monster 50+ Million contract, because they can project how he will do in the future.
Are the stats wrong sometimes? Fuck yeah. For every Evan Longoria who tore up minor-league pitching, there's probably a Felix Pie example too.
But it seems like MLB stars do tend to have put up big numbers in the minors, in general, wouldn't you say?
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->But it seems like MLB stars do tend to have put up big numbers in the minors, in general, wouldn't you say?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Sure, but for every star that put up big numbers in the minors, there's probably more than a dozen Pies or Ories or Dubois' or Hoffpauirs or McGehees or Cedenos or Kroegers or Keltons or Murtons or Pattersons or Chois or Zuletas or Browns or Gloads or Meyers' or Jennings' or Franklins or Maxwells or Lowerys or Glanvilles or Valdes' that have terrific minor league numbers and basically have no impact on the MLB level.
Rarely, if ever, do players have poor minor league numbers and do well in the majors, but frequently they have good minor league numbers and do poorly in the MLB. So no, I don't think MiLB numbers are an excellent indicator of how a player will play in the MLB. In fact, it's seems like they mean little or nothing.
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Before we even think about milb numbers predicting future ml numbers, lets take a look at mlb numbers predicting mlb numbers.
2008 cub non pitchers with over 50 plate aps. lets compare OPS
player 2008 2009 diff
soto .868 .702 19%
lee .823 .972 18%
derosa .799 .696 15%
ramirez .898 .905 0%
soraiono .876 .726 17%
edmunds .937 0 ---
fuk .738 .796 8%
johnson .778 .742 5%
font .909 .677 26%
cedeno .680 .593 13%
blanco .717 .703 0
ward .721 0 ----
pie .637 .763 20%
hoff .934 .727 22%
I like you guys a lot.
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<!--quoteo(post=81640:date=Mar 4 2010, 11:26 PM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Mar 4 2010, 11:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Before we even think about milb numbers predicting future ml numbers, lets take a look at mlb numbers predicting mlb numbers.
2008 cub non pitchers with over 50 plate aps. lets compare OPS
player 2008 2009 diff
soto .868 .702 19%
lee .823 .972 18%
derosa .799 .696 15%
ramirez .898 .905 0%
soraiono .876 .726 17%
edmunds .937 0 ---
fuk .738 .796 8%
johnson .778 .742 5%
font .909 .677 26%
cedeno .680 .593 13%
blanco .717 .703 0
ward .721 0 ----
pie .637 .763 20%
hoff .934 .727 22%<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yes, exactly. There is no way to accurately predict future results...if there were, well, life would be...different.
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Are people really making the point that prior stats - minor or major - are not a PERFECT predictor of future performance?
Well huzzah. Great point. You nailed it.
If, instead, people would like to make the equally obvious point that past performance (stats) is the <i>best </i>predictor of future performance, well I could get on board with that. Of course there are other factors - age, scouting, etc. - but previous stats are, duh, the best of the bunch if you had to pick one.
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In the data I provided, 2008 stats did not seem much better than blind luck at predicting 2009 performance. We just take it for granted that stats are the best indicator of future performance. But how well do they work? They probably do not work better than human evaluation. Milb stat will be worth even less. 50 players hit at least .300 in high A ball (where Starlin Castro played most of the season) last year. Both Eric Patterson and Andres Blanco had better stats in AAA than Castro did in high A. Stats are not the reason Castro is the hot kid in camp. It is because human evaluators have told us he is.
I like you guys a lot.
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<!--quoteo(post=81711:date=Mar 5 2010, 01:56 PM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Mar 5 2010, 01:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->In the data I provided, 2008 stats did not seem much better than blind luck at predicting 2009 performance. We just take it for granted that stats are the best indicator of future performance. But how well do they work? They probably do not work better than human evaluation. Milb stat will be worth even less. 50 players hit at least .300 in high A ball (where Starlin Castro played most of the season) last year. <b>Both Eric Patterson and Andres Blanco had better stats in AAA than Castro did in high A. Stats are not the reason Castro is the hot kid in camp. It is because human evaluators have told us he is.</b><!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
1) Human Evaluation and stats are not mutually exclusive. Stats are nothing more than an accumulation of every at bat. Humans cannot see every at bat of every player all the time.
2) The bolded statement is preposterous. Starlin Castro is the hot kid in camp because his numbers at A ball, as a freakin' 20 year old kid, are excellent and the scouts like his skills. Eric Patterson and Andres Blanco are not the hot kids in camp because, while they may have put up good numbers in AAA, they are 27 and 26, respectively, and have not yet performed in the majors despite having the opportunity.
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