Hates stats/Likes stats

[veryzer]

i love stats too. i just threw out an example of a stat that doesn't tell the whole story.

[Dave]

I cant wait for Joe Morgan to get prostate cancer so I can dance a jig on his grave.

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=65114:date=Oct 2 2009, 09:27 PM:name=Dave)-->QUOTE (Dave @ Oct 2 2009, 09:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I cant wait for Joe Morgan to get prostate cancer so I can dance a jig on his grave.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


whoa! i'm not touching that one......

[Dave]

I have my reasons......

[PcB]

<!--quoteo(post=65147:date=Oct 3 2009, 10:58 AM:name=Dave)-->QUOTE (Dave @ Oct 3 2009, 10:58 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I have my reasons......<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Why would you want a Joe Morgan autograph anyways?

[Coldneck]

Here's Theo Epstein's take:

Joe Posnanski

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->And so when Theo — in a clear effort to steer the conversation toward a point he wanted to make — said that J.D. Drew was second among everyday American League outfielders in OPS (behind only Boston’s Jason Bay), I thought: “Hmm, where is this going?”

As it turned out, it was going to Theo Epstein explaining why RBIs are no way to evaluate baseball players.

“Sometimes you get stuck in the world of evaluating players through home runs and RBIs. And it’s not the way that I think most clubs do it these days. And if you look at underlying performance of a lot of our guys, they bring more to the table than just the counting stats. And J.D.’s certainly having another good year for us. He’s up around a .900 OPS right now, and he’s playing really good defense in right field, he deserves an awful lot of credit for that, he’s been pretty darned good for the three years that he’s been here if you look at the underlying performance.”

The radio guys here protest a little … they point out that while Drew’s OPS is usually good, they aren’t sure that it has led to PRODUCTION — namely runs scored and RBIs. And this is when Theo really takes over. I bold out a few of my favorite thoughts in this wonderful little lesson:

“That’s not true. With RBIs, yes. Based on his skill set, he’s always going to have underwhelming RBI totals. I couldn’t care less. When you’re putting together a winning team, that honestly doesn’t matter. When you have a player who takes a ton of walks, who doesn’t put the ball in play at an above average rate, and is a certain type of hitter, he’s not going to drive in a lot of runs. Runs scored, you couldn’t be more wrong. If you look at a rate basis, J.D. scores a ton of runs.

“And the reason he scores a ton of runs is because he does the single most important thing you can do in baseball as an offensive player. And that’s NOT MAKE OUTS. He doesn’t make outs. He’s always among our team leaders in on-base percentage, usually among the league leaders in on-base percentage. And he’s a really good base runner. So when he doesn’t make outs, and he gets himself on base, he scores runs — and he has some good hitters hitting behind him. Look at his runs scored on a rate basis with the Red Sox or throughout his career. It’s outstanding.

“You guys can talk about RBIs if you want, I just … we ignore them in the front office … and I think we’ve built some pretty good offensive clubs. If you want to talk about RBIs at all, talk about it as a percentage of opportunity but it’s just simply not a way or something we use to evaluate offensive players.”<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[kbwsb]

Thanks, Coldneck. Since I read Posnanski daily, I'd already read that, but it's nice to see it posted here.

I read that and wept.

[leonardsipes]

As Cubs fans, if we hate anyone, It should be Epstein. Hendry hit the HR of deadline deals in '04. He had a contending team that needed a SS (and it turns out a closer), and he got one of the best in the game. Epstein made a trade more like a kid playing with his "I'm the GM" toy, and sent Murton to the Cubs by mistake.

Epstein comes out the genius, in what should have been Hendry's moment. Hendry has been a horrible GM ever since. He seems to be making moves with an eye on how smart/stupid he looks.

[cherp]

I don't hate stats - or the use of stats. What I hate is the misuse and abuse of statistics by people who don't understand them, and don't understand the context that should wrap around the stats.

[kbwsb]

<!--quoteo(post=65361:date=Oct 5 2009, 01:26 PM:name=cherp)-->QUOTE (cherp @ Oct 5 2009, 01:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't hate stats - or the use of stats. What I hate is the misuse and abuse of statistics by people who don't understand them, and don't understand the context that should wrap around the stats.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think Theo understands the context. In my mind, the goal is to win ballgames.
That's what Theo's team does.

[leonardsipes]

<!--quoteo(post=65372:date=Oct 5 2009, 12:54 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Oct 5 2009, 12:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=65361:date=Oct 5 2009, 01:26 PM:name=cherp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cherp @ Oct 5 2009, 01:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't hate stats - or the use of stats. What I hate is the misuse and abuse of statistics by people who don't understand them, and don't understand the context that should wrap around the stats.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think Theo understands the context. In my mind, the goal is to win ballgames.
That's what Theo's team does.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I guess, what I have been saying, is that most of the analysis of baseball stats is weak, and the conclusions are wrong. And to add insult to Hendry's injury, I am not sure Theo knows what he is doing.

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->the single most important thing you can do in baseball as an offensive player. And that’s NOT MAKE OUTS.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

It is hard to imagine someone watching baseball, let alone being involved in it, and making that statement. What makes baseball, baseball is that you have people playing a season of games made up of 9 innings, each team gets 3 outs per inning. Most of the time, the result of an at bat is an out. Each team uses it hits, walks and outs to try to score more runs than the other team.

Each AB is a different situation and its result is not random (this is one of the big statistical mistakes that makes much of the analysis flawed). The pitcher will pitch differently, depending on the situation and the results he wants. This is what makes baseball, baseball. There are so many different situations and different results that have different values. Sometimes a walk is as good as a hit, sometimes a walk is worse than a productive out.

It could be quantified. Somebody could look at every AB, and determine the value of every possible result and score the actual result. OPS and RBI are good stats, all things being equal. For RBI, you assume, same place in the lineup for a teams that score about the same amount of run. For OPS you are assuming that over a season each hitter will face the same situations.

All things are not equal. Sometimes a better hitter will have fewer RBI, sometimes a guy with a higher OPS will be less productive. Also, most stats we use, ignore the most common result of all - the out.

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=65478:date=Oct 5 2009, 08:47 PM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Oct 5 2009, 08:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Each AB is a different situation and its result is not random (this is one of the big statistical mistakes that makes much of the analysis flawed).<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->It could be quantified. Somebody could look at every AB, and determine the value of every possible result and score the actual result.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ding ding ding. As I said before hardcore statistical analysis is best suited for the hard sciences.