What Will it Take for the Cubs to Make the Playoffs

[Ace]

From Bleacher Nation, I'm copying the whole thing since it's my copyright, and I don't mind infringing it. No need to make you guys click over.

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Speaking strictly statistically, things are not looking good for the 2009 Chicago Cubs. Last night’s heartbreaking loss (haven’t they all been heartbreaking this year?), coupled with the St. Louis Cardinals’ win over the Dodgers dropped the Cubs six games back in the National League Central. Though the Cubs are just five games back in the Wild Card, they trail four teams - making a Wild Card run highly improbable.

So if it’s going to happen this year for the Cubs, it’s almost certainly going to have to be a victory in the NL Central.

But how exactly is that going to happen? And no, I don’t mean “what changes do the Cubs have to make.” I simply mean, statistically - wins and losses.

The Chicago Cubs stand at 60 -56, with 46 games remaining.

The St. Louis Cardinals stand at 68 - 52, with 42 games remaining.

If the Cardinals play .500 ball the rest of the way (not bloodly likely given how absurdly they’ve been playing), they will finish at 89 - 73. That means to overtake the Cards, the Cubs would have to finish their last 46 games going 30 - 16, which amounts to a .652 winning percentage. Not unheard of, but a tall task.

Worse still, if the Cardinals simply continue their current pace - .567 - they will win 24 of their last 42 games, putting their final record at 92 - 70. In that scenario, the Cubs would have to go 33 - 13, a .717 winning percentage, to overtake the Cardinals.

Could the Cubs actually do it? Well, maybe.

As we have all learned - painfully - this year’s Chicago Cubs club can only beat crummy teams. The Cubs have not won a series against a winning team in three months.

But here’s the thing: the Cubs play 33 of their remaining 46 games against teams with a losing record. If the Cubs win 2/3 of their games against those losing teams (they do), and win just 1/3 against the winning teams (they do), that would project to a 26 - 16 record over the final 42 games. Barring a mini-collapse by the Cardinals, that isn’t likely to do the trick.

But that’s just the Cubs’ season averages against winning and losing teams this year. If the Cubs can manage to play .500 ball against the winning teams, and keep taking down the losers at a .667 clip, they could win 28 or 29 games to close out the year, and would have a very real shot at taking the NL Central.

It’s bleak. There’s no debating that at this point. But it ain’t over.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[jstraw]

<!--quoteo(post=58496:date=Aug 18 2009, 07:13 AM:name=Ace)-->QUOTE (Ace @ Aug 18 2009, 07:13 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->From Bleacher Nation, I'm copying the whole thing since it's my copyright, and I don't mind infringing it. No need to make you guys click over.

<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Speaking strictly statistically, things are not looking good for the 2009 Chicago Cubs. Last night’s heartbreaking loss (haven’t they all been heartbreaking this year?), coupled with the St. Louis Cardinals’ win over the Dodgers dropped the Cubs six games back in the National League Central. Though the Cubs are just five games back in the Wild Card, they trail four teams - making a Wild Card run highly improbable.

So if it’s going to happen this year for the Cubs, it’s almost certainly going to have to be a victory in the NL Central.

But how exactly is that going to happen? And no, I don’t mean “what changes do the Cubs have to make.” I simply mean, statistically - wins and losses.

The Chicago Cubs stand at 60 -56, with 46 games remaining.

The St. Louis Cardinals stand at 68 - 52, with 42 games remaining.

If the Cardinals play .500 ball the rest of the way (not bloodly likely given how absurdly they’ve been playing), they will finish at 89 - 73. That means to overtake the Cards, the Cubs would have to finish their last 46 games going 30 - 16, which amounts to a .652 winning percentage. Not unheard of, but a tall task.

Worse still, if the Cardinals simply continue their current pace - .567 - they will win 24 of their last 42 games, putting their final record at 92 - 70. In that scenario, the Cubs would have to go 33 - 13, a .717 winning percentage, to overtake the Cardinals.

Could the Cubs actually do it? Well, maybe.

As we have all learned - painfully - this year’s Chicago Cubs club can only beat crummy teams. The Cubs have not won a series against a winning team in three months.

But here’s the thing: the Cubs play 33 of their remaining 46 games against teams with a losing record. If the Cubs win 2/3 of their games against those losing teams (they do), and win just 1/3 against the winning teams (they do), that would project to a 26 - 16 record over the final 42 games. Barring a mini-collapse by the Cardinals, that isn’t likely to do the trick.

But that’s just the Cubs’ season averages against winning and losing teams this year. If the Cubs can manage to play .500 ball against the winning teams, and keep taking down the losers at a .667 clip, they could win 28 or 29 games to close out the year, and would have a very real shot at taking the NL Central.

It’s bleak. There’s no debating that at this point. But it ain’t over.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Cubs are on an 84 win pace. Cards are on an 92 win pace. We win if we play out of our heads and they collapse. Seen any signs of that happening?

[Butcher]

I wish this collapse would have happened before the trade deadline.

[Auz]

[Croz]

We have no pray in catching St. Louis now. We need to think Wild Card.

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=58510:date=Aug 18 2009, 08:34 AM:name=Croz)-->QUOTE (Croz @ Aug 18 2009, 08:34 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->We have no pray in catching St. Louis now. We need to think 2050.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Fixed.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=58516:date=Aug 18 2009, 09:33 AM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Aug 18 2009, 09:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=58510:date=Aug 18 2009, 08:34 AM:name=Croz)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Croz @ Aug 18 2009, 08:34 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->We have no pray in catching St. Louis now. We need to think 2050.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Fixed.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It'll be nifty in O-50!

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=58517:date=Aug 18 2009, 09:39 AM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Aug 18 2009, 09:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=58516:date=Aug 18 2009, 09:33 AM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Aug 18 2009, 09:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=58510:date=Aug 18 2009, 08:34 AM:name=Croz)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Croz @ Aug 18 2009, 08:34 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->We have no pray in catching St. Louis now. We need to think 2050.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Fixed.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It'll be nifty in O-50!
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That would make a great T-shirt.

[1060Ivy]

Taking into consideration the weak schedule and baring any additional injuries, I would guess the Cubs end the season somewhere between 83 and 92 wins. The Cubs are still in it but the lights are going out quickly on this season. The Cubs are going to have to play considerably better if they have any chance to make the playoffs.

The Cubs just played great in July and then lost 3 out of 5 starters and Ramirez just when they appeared to get things working.
They went on a 22 - 11 streak mostly against weak competition so a 667 win % is not out of the question considering the fairly weak schedule facing them. A 667 win percentage from today till the end of the season would give the Cubs 91 wins for the year.

Unfortunately as it has been pointed out, it will probably take at least 92 wins to take the division. The Cardinals aren't laying down and the Cubs only play them 3 more times this season and they are all in St Louis - thanks, schedule makers.

Is it hopeless? No but what the fuck, we are all Cub fans what did you expect?

[Vine]

I think the Cubs will make the playoffs. Winning 3 of the next 6 would be a great start.

[ruby23]

Wildcard or bust, bitches.

[Coach]

If it's going to end, let's end it quickly.

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=58534:date=Aug 18 2009, 10:30 AM:name=Coach)-->QUOTE (Coach @ Aug 18 2009, 10:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->If it's going to end, let's end it quickly.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't see us surviving the Dodgers series in very good shape, so I think it ends this week for most fans.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=58522:date=Aug 18 2009, 09:52 AM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Aug 18 2009, 09:52 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=58517:date=Aug 18 2009, 09:39 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Aug 18 2009, 09:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=58516:date=Aug 18 2009, 09:33 AM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Aug 18 2009, 09:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=58510:date=Aug 18 2009, 08:34 AM:name=Croz)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Croz @ Aug 18 2009, 08:34 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->We have no pray in catching St. Louis now. We need to think 2050.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Fixed.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It'll be nifty in O-50!
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That would make a great T-shirt.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yeah. It would be pretty funny. Right now it's just making me depressed, though.

[Croz]

I just want in the playoffs, don't give a shit if it's central champs or the wild card. Just get in and see what happens.